Vaal Sand Thursday

You know the score... to read or not to read, that is the question... the choice is yours of course lol

R1 Nothing in the breeding says to me that Penstock will take to the surface. Can never be sure but I'm happy enough to brass him and go with the form of the Big Shot race in which all six other runners featured. Three were well beaten and I see no reason why that should change. Dublin Rebel and Battle of Arcole took silver and bronze respectively with only 0.1l splitting them, Colonel Rockjaw was a further 3l back despite having much the best draw of the three. Although he has the 1 box here he may have to settle for 3rd behind the other two again. BoA probably used up a bit getting to the front but then had a clear passage, whereas DR was "forced" to race 4/5 wide around the bend, in this smaller field he should be able to avoid the same wide run. DR went passed BoA lto before tiring very late and the latter got up again for 2nd. This time, given a shorter route, DR could be the right one but very hard to split them... DUBLIN REBEL x BATTLE OF ARCOLE x COLONEL ROCKJAW

R2 Beautiful Shay appeared to possibly stumble coming out the gates on her sand debut lto and was a long way back before producing a strong finish to get within 0.85l of the winner over 1000. The 6 box (after the scratching - "ats") is not ideal but the way she finished lto makes me think she will have enough here to win over the extra 200. My Silver Fox, also on sand debut, was a further 2.7l back making steady progress that day, from the 2 box ("ats") she has a place chance. A bigger threat might come from Love Tryst who is another who on sand debut came from some way back to finish well, she was 7.4l off the winner but with another stride she would have taken silver. The time though was almost a second slower than that of BS (same day, next race). ("ats") LT gets the 1 box but, she did appear a little outpaced in the early stages lto so it may not be as big an advantage as it otherwise might be. Eastside and Attract The Crowd both have chances, they were closely matched over 1450. I marginally prefer the latter over this shorter d though it is the former has found support but both are again drawn wide. Little Bird Ruth could improve on her debut run. Watch for sand debutant Skyress. Her only sibling is full sister Captain's Diva who, though possibly better on turf, has run respectably on the sand, generally in R64-R80 company. In her early career though it could be said she seemed more suited to the sand than turf. CD won on sand debut over 1000 on her 4th career run, a similar result for Skyress is possible but I would be more confident if it were over 1000. BEAUTIFUL SHAY x LOVE TRYST x MY SILVER FOX

R3 It was a very poor field in the last run of Walkabout and Pera Hur, when the former got 2nd from his stablemate and cost me plenty. This field is not a lot better and given that Walkabout appeared to be finishing the stronger of the two that day and gets the 1 box, over this additional 250 I would expect him to again come out on top. Blue Tractor has potential on the surface on breeding but his debut effort here lto was disappointing, hard to say if the run was needed, the d too short or the horse did not enjoy the surface. With a good draw and Striker up he has a chance if the excuses were valid lto but I am not convinced and a "watch" for me. Mystic Realm was only 2l behind Walkabout in his penultimate run but is now drawn 10 and hard to see where improvement will come from. Doodle Bug will (tentatively lol) get R1 e/w. The likely winner for me though is Turnuptheheat who seems better around this d and was drawn 16/16 over 1800 in his last run here. In his two previous runs here, both over this d, though not the strongest of fields, he was supported from 10s into 9/2 in the first effort when taking bronze and then fav when 4th but reportedly not striding. In that first run he was returning from a 56 week rest and despite that and being somewhat outpaced mid-race, he ran on strongly towards the end and was finishing best of all. Not easy to have total confidence given the weak field but for me... TURNUPTHEHEAT x WALKABOUT x PERA HUR

R4 American Tiger has had two very decent runs here for different reasons over the minimum. Won his maiden at an absolute canter and was very unlucky next time here when a poor start left him too much to do despite a concorde-style finish. The trip is a slight concern but he looks to me to be a decent sand performer in the making and a confident selection. Having been unlucky lto it is one of gambling's bitter pills to swallow to now have just 5/2 on offer. Proud As Punch gets the 1 draw and has shown some fair form but over shorter and looks held by a couple of others. Subshaawes should have a chance, ignoring the last two runs (turf/excuses) he finished 1.5l ahead of Limbo three runs back over c/d but there is a significant swing in the draws here, from the 12 box he may struggle to confirm. Limbo is the most likely imo to take the spoils should AT fail. He has 2 golds and 3 bronzes from his 7 c/d runs, well drawn in 4 with Khumalo up and, like many, he does seem to perform better here when drawn low. Arkansas finished 2.6l behind Limbo in the run to Sussudio and should not be too far away again. Angel Gabriel an outside place chance. A return to form for a couple might blow the mind, my R1 e/w will be on the usually very poor Shakaland who is dropped in trip and gets the 2 box, he does though occasionally run an ok race for no apparent reason, will want bigger than 25s though. AMERICAN TIGER x LIMBO x ARKANSAS

R5 Not opposing TT, TG for a value exacta but probably ATI the more sensible option. TRIP TEASE x TOMMY GUN x ACROSS THE ICE

R6 SHE'S A TIGER x KATCH x FAB CAT... unlikely perhaps but all of Princess Brierley, Tabanna. Coral Key and Seattle Wind have some sort of chance to cause a surprise.

R7 Tough handicap with chances aplenty and can't say I would be that shocked if almost any of them win so not one to start scribbling about or I won't stop! I'll go with Peep Show who I think will go very close if not winning. She has returned to form of late, has a fair draw in 5, is proven over both and c and d, and has the all guns blazing currently Lerena up for the in form Azzie stable. Could be a combination difficult to beat. I'll chance Julie Doolittle for the exacta and the sand debutant Dream Galaxy, who could go well but has a poor draw, for the trifecta. R1 on Beautiful Dawn... PEEP SHOW x JULIE DOOLITTLE x DREAM GALAXY

R8 Seattle Fairy may have beaten a relatively weak field lto but she travelled well throughout and looked like she could hit the trigger and beat them whenever she liked from a long way out. She beat Conne Mare Black by a similar distance (10.25l and 11.7l) back in April and that one has had two big wins herself in her last 5 sand runs. Anything like a repeat and I think SF will win again here and possibly comfortably so. The biggest danger for me is likely to be Walking On Air with Lerena up. She was running on nicely from the back over 1450 last time here but was never placed to threaten the winner. Both have wide draws but in that race won by SF (over 1800) the 4 drawn widest filled 4 of the top 5 places. Breeding indicates Casual may go on the surface but was well beaten in her only run here and her full brother also flopped in his only appearance here, though he was also comparatively poor on turf too. Still, Casual can be no more than a watch for me. Bodega for the trifecta... SEATTLE FAIRY x WALKING ON AIR x BODEGA

Be(s)t of luck to all

Englander, I have to give you a big thumbs-up on that write-up - I don't think everyone appreciates the effort that goes into providing a sensible accurate write-up when there are so many things to consider - and as you know, it is mostly the small things that we miss, that comes back to bite you in the bum

Great stuff :whistle:

Engels

You should apply for the position of campaign manager for Donald Trump...

Bitabling 5/2 a place better value then Beautiful Shay.Shes coming!

gregbucks wrote: Engels

You should apply for the position of campaign manager for Donald Trump...

I found Ivanka very hard work Greggo, couldn't get "involved" with anything to do with the family again

Englander wrote:

gregbucks wrote: Engels

You should apply for the position of campaign manager for Donald Trump...

I found Ivanka very hard work Greggo, couldn't get "involved" with anything to do with the family again

lol... :lol:

Some very quick thoughts and to add, I'm in agreement with a lot of englanders selections, therefore will add my two cents worth.

R2 Beautiful shay/ Eastside / Love tryst& ATC
R3 Turnup the heat and walkabout my pa horses.
R4 Limbo and American tiger the obvious inclusions but like so often on the sand the obvious ones throw a surprise so with the above mentioned il throw in all of Perfect trip, Arkansas and shakaland. Agree with E Shakaland makes some appeal e/w today and 33's good enough for me.
R5 TT banker in the pa for me.
R6 Katch / Torrelavage /She's a tiger&bright number four. Katch I think could be close to Lerenas best today, off a competitive mark against own sex and may be drawn on the correct side.
R7 Escudo and Miss K my pa horses. Probably should include more as it is very competitive but going to chance these two. Miss K finally starting to come down in the ratings again after the handicapper got a hold of her and could be competitive.
R8 Agree with E with regards to SF and Bodega however I encourage all to include #10 Inkolo, been following this horse for a while and seems luckless in running. Never gets a good draw, got one on penultimate behind burlesque but the jock couldn't get a run, had so much horse under him and to me if reproducing that effort on the sand will go very close in my opinion.

Going to try a place double with shakaland and Inkolo 18/1 four places.

All the best clanners.

After the Englishman's mammoth effort, I feel obliged to add my 2 cents.........

The first 3 races seem pretty straight forward in that only about 4 runners need consideration - so no lurkers to be found imo

The 4th is a different kettle of fish - quite a few of horses priced up in double digits looking to spoil the party; these include Perfect Trip (blinkers come off and very competitively weighted), Tacitus (tries the sand and races off a 68 today after being as high as 81 - albeit in PE); and my real two lurkers Royal Chief (improved pace with the blinkers last time, has won his maiden this trip and now comes down to 56 after being rated 70 for winning his maiden - draw a minus though) and Limited Edition (found the Flamingo sand to his liking and there is a whopping 12.5 kg swing in the weights with favorite American Tiger on their runs behind Graduation Day - albeit on the turf)

R5 looks tailor-made for Trip Tease - if something beats him it could be a combination of that inside draw and Precursor who is extremely useful on the sand

The 6th and 7th look really competitive; in the 6th for some double-digit priced lurkers I'm looking at the juvenile Outa My Way (tries the sand, but less than 6 lengths behind Entisaar :ohmy: ), West Ridge (won her only start over this trip easily) and Coral Key who has run well on the sand off 66 and comes down to 60 today.

In the 7th. I think Ahlaam is the right one; on a line through Spellbound she should hold Escudo; the danger could be Fire Dancing who came right back to her best last time; obviously a few others like Peep Show, Julie Doolittle and the sand debutante Dream Galaxy need consideration as well - best roughie imo Mystic Tigress who has run some fair races on the sand.

In the last. Seattle Fairy stands out for me on her last effort - however that was over 1800, over the 1600 she may not get going in time, so I think both Walking on Air and Shamal are big runners

Enjoy

Race 1 Battle of arcole - Race 2 Beautiful shay - Race 5 Trip tease...12/1 Trebble

1- interesting start - PENSTOCK is up for sale soon so perhaps a win before he goes- Battle of Arcole stable hot and Colonel Rockjaw may be the surprise.
2- all grey affair - Beatiful Shay and My Silver fox
3- PERA HUR go close to winning but the winner should come from 1,2,3
4- ARKANSAS best e/w
5- 2,3,4
6 - Danielle, Katch, Torrelavega
7 - PEEP SHOW
8 - JUMPSTART strong 4 place at 15/10

Englander, as a matter of interest (and not suggesting you change your selections) but for future consideration, Penstock is by Jay Peg ,by Camden Park!
I was a small part of the syndicate that imported Camden Park and a criticism from the industry,at the time, was that he was by AP INDY ,one of the most successful and highest rated Sires of DIRT horses in the USA,and the belief was that his progeny would be more suited to dirt.(albeit not necessarily our kitty litter) :ohmy:

R1 I'm having a real idiots e/w on battle born, 3rd run after rest, has run some decent races over distance will probably go to the front and hope others don't catch him similar to horses in the stable such as Conna Mara, start your engines etc. exactas with Battle of arcole and fl BB with field exacta. At the price of 75/1 can't get hurt :lol: