July fancies and betting

ColinP wrote: Greyville and a decent pace you need stamina to see out the trip.If you put a line through The Conglomerate you must forget Futura

So you are saying that futura cannot see out a hard run 2200m???

Greyville has never been a severe track....ever!!!

Futura wins, I'm going to be as confident as Noordhoek Flyer was with Legislate last year....

Overs red rovers boys!!! Get on now!

Dont be fooled TH, Greyville is one of the stiffest tracks around.

Im only trying to save you some

ColinP wrote: Dont be fooled TH, Greyville is one of the stiffest tracks around.

I'm going to agree with Chris, Greyville is not as testing as others, however the distance run in the July (2200m) is peculiar in that you don't see races over this distance regularly, or at any other race course for that matter (open to correction on this though). I like to think of it as an odd distance in horse racing. When the final field is published, many would not have run the 2200m, so some trainers feel their horses won't stay 2400m but are prepared to have a go, and the flip side, others feel 2000m is the minimum their chargers are looking for. That's the beauty of the July, trying to work out if your choice can hold on or run them down. The 1988 winner, Royal Chalice, hadn't raced beyond 1600m (I think) and went on to win the July.

Look at yesterdays Woolavington and Daily News results.Both races were won by horses outstaying the others.Look at Smart Call's pedigree,Ideal World and HC in the dam.Then see how Trophy Wife outstayed other fancied runners and recall how she ran on to Sirens Call from way back in soft.Im saying that the order of finish was determined by their ability to stay.You can agree with Chris as much as u like but the facts are simple.Above Guineas distance Graded and there is no place to hide
How many times has your fancy been outrun late a sprint at Greyvlille

www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgLengthBeh...KW&dist=1600&cnty=ZA

www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgLengthBeh...KW&dist=2000&cnty=ZA

www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgLengthBeh...GE&dist=1600&cnty=ZA

Good thread guys and I have been fortunate to have backed many July winners and still feel fairly confident I am on the correct horse again with Futura.

Good punting

Not sure why anybody is talking about stamina doubts for Futura over the Greyville 2200m. Any Met or Cape Derby winner should see it out no problem. You do see some horses ever year looking like they didn't really stay but generally they are struggling as they start the slight incline coming around the bend . Probably more because they were victims of not being able to find good position. They tend to become bunched at that point so being unable to stride out or having to go wide does take it out of them, regardless of having no stamina issues.

I see 2nd declarations are due tomorrow I June at 11:00 - will be interesting who stays and who goes - at current odds I'm happy in that I'm in front with 5 of the 7 priced up at 10/1 or shorter - the exceptions being Majmu and The Conglomerate. A little confusing imo is that French Navy is still trading as much as 10/1 along with Ertijaal and The Conglomerate who he both beat fair and square yesterday in the DN :huh:

Would also be interesting to know if the Snaiths have changed their mind about running Legislate

And I also can't figure out why their should be any stamina doubts about Futura - and as for Greyville being a tough course, imo it all depends on the pace - one just have to cast one's mind back to last year's race where there was no pace and the front runner held on (well on the track any way)

The race is clearing for me (I could be wrong of course but al least I am managing to get a view)Sat confirmed some of my thoughts!
a)even more certain now that no filly can win except Majmu ,if she runs
b)Cannot find a reason for Futura to beat Wylie Hall based on last years run ...........(assuming that Futura gives WH 2Kg )
c)and I have Legal Eagle in front of Wylie hall and French Navy on their runs on the 4/4/15
d)still uncertain about Ertijaal..........is it a stamina problem or being prepped to the minute for the July...........class is not a concern ...........I can't forget that MdK took it to CT to take on Act of War (when the talk was that it was better than Variety Club) but that didn't scare him! and lets not forget the time of that race(not everything but not "nothing" either!) .............have we seen the real Ertijaal since Cape Town???

So for me its LEGAL EAGLE...............with only Majmu and maybe a niggling concern about Ertijaal
- I'm hoping at least one of De Kocks comes out tmorrow then at least I can just Dutch 2 horses :woohoo:

Rob what do you make of Legislate ? His win in the Green Point Stakes was the mark of a superstar. I know he is meant to be a doubtful starter but how can a horse running in the Gold Challenge 3 weeks before be a doubtful starter for the race he won last year ? If he runs a big race on Saturday ( he is drawn widest at 20 but I think the field will cut up) how can he not run in the July ?

I agree with your take on Legal Eagle. I think Tarry said he will prep him in Gauteng (probably the Jubilee) and then go for the July. At this stage Marcus looks certain to ride.

Harris, if you read what I posted in my first thoughts I said that I thought Legislate would beat everything that ran last year .....If all is well !
I thought he would improve past Wylie Hall and Futura ......you will see I also queried him running in the schweppes but being doubtful for the July .....makes no sense to me either.
I haven't ruled him out of my calculations and will watch his run with interest!

(Sorry those first thoughts were on another "July"thread ( battling to find it as I am using my phone)

Heavy Metal for the July 2015