Flamingo Monday

Dave Scott wrote:

Winning_Post wrote: Summer Strike 1st race 66/1 to 12/1. Now unless this is a betting coup I don't think anyone in their right mind would back a runner as such, that being said 95% of the time it's correct so I'm on anyway and expecting the runner to win like a 15/20 shot!

Good luck Ziets!! Like Dansili Express as well.

I think we must understand if you own a horse eg summer strike and you fancy a wee bet on your own horse you take 20000/300 this does not make it a betting coup, many times I took similar bets on Miss D and Bud B at high prices because I owned the horse irrelevant what the trainer or jock said. This does not mean the money is down, if there is a follow through at lower prices then maybe they do really fancy it and not just the owners we stab

Good punting!

Kotze horse Elegant Bay was 80/1, went off 12/1. 66/1 to 12/1 is quite a fair amount of betting support. I get what you saying but 66/1 to 12/1 is not a wee bet, that is a large amount of betting support and interestingly it was done as betting opened, it moved so quickly could hardly get a bet on, lol.

Anyways just my two cents worth, hope it wins!

just finished offloading . all horses travelled well.
no wind , few clouds otherwise exellent weather.
Birthday of stablejock Ryan Munger and on wednesday its birthday of my son Eben and also oom Bill.
we will be doing our best to let jock and trainer have birthdays to remember.

Dave Scott wrote:

Winning_Post wrote: Summer Strike 1st race 66/1 to 12/1. Now unless this is a betting coup I don't think anyone in their right mind would back a runner as such, that being said 95% of the time it's correct so I'm on anyway and expecting the runner to win like a 15/20 shot!

Good luck Ziets!! Like Dansili Express as well.

I think we must understand if you own

a horse eg summer strike and you fancy a wee bet on your own horse you take 20000/300 this does not make it a betting coup, many times I took similar bets on Miss D and Bud B at high prices because I owned the horse irrelevant what the trainer or jock said. This does not mean the money is down, if there is a follow through at lower prices then maybe they do really fancy it and not just the owners we stab

Good punting!

Sorry Dave, one more thing, why today? This horse always drifted, last time out 125/1, 40/1, 66/1, 40/1... Once a sniff from 10/1 to 13/2 but today decided 66/1 to 12/1. Something fishy here...

You also have to remember that some big bookies don't report claims

Zietsman Oosthuizen wrote: just finished offloading . all horses travelled well.
no wind , few clouds otherwise exellent weather.
Birthday of stablejock Ryan Munger and on wednesday its birthday of my son Eben and also oom Bill.
we will be doing our best to let jock and trainer have birthdays to remember.

All the best Ziets, hope you have a great day.

Go Ziets. Will have a pint or two for all the birthday boys.

i would rather Trust The Pink

Also a claim on the Borman horse Pretty Lady in the 9th.
Last 3 runs Summer Strike:8th-12.25l;12th-23l;9th-18.25l
Pretty Lady;12th-9.05l;10th-19l;12th-17l

If this is a betting coup then it is retirement!

Doesnt take big bucks 2 make bookies nervous at flamingo seeing our reputation here many moons ago a bloem bookie was still coming down here i had a horse that i fancied opened at 20's the owner asked for 20k/1k the bookie said now he can only put 100rcat a time so the owner said ok 2000/100 bookie promtly wrote the ticket and in the blink of an eye turned the horse down to 12/1 my owner asked why is he doing that and the bookie replied its his bussiness he can do what he wants the horse romped in by 9 lenghts and i had a fuming owner to try and pacify he hasnt laid abet wih bookies after that

My 5 cents worth ................I don't think you can compare the Kotze coup with Summer Strike..............she is a maiden that I would guess has suddenly shown better work or they fixed a problem, but weights are fixed so no benefit from previous form.
The Kotze coup was clearly reducing MR by at least 5-6 lengths and then backing in a handicap ,to get the benefit!

Flamingo Park 15th September 2014.

Race 1 : 1st timers make little appeal in the 1st, it can be said with respect that it's quite a weak maiden contest for fillies and mares, Autdrome had excuses last time out and is clearly much better than the last run so I would put a line through that run. Trust the Pink has made steady progress and must be considered for the back end of quartets and trifectas, Cash Crop has been rested 29 weeks and makes little appeal, Marchioness Janie hasn't been too far off them but needs to find a finish to feature. Dreamed a Dream, Summer Strike and Vegas Lass (Rested 43 weeks) all need to find many lengths. Imagine with all due respect can only Imagine winning so not for me, All Knowledge showed nice improvement last time out and wasn't given much of a chance on betting support, a repeat of that run can surely see her feature here. Moonrush rested 18 weeks but needs to jump on terms to stake a claim, consider for the placing's. The ex Laird runner Lady Caroline needs to improve leaps and bounds to find the top six. Summer Strike has attracted some betting support but on form alone looks very hard to back at 12/1 Selections - All Knowledge X Autodrome X Trust the Pink {How on earth Moonrush is Favourite is beyond the realm of my understanding}

Race 2 : 1st timer Blu Eco doesn't appeal, Beez Brother can be considered unlucky in his last when jumping awkwardly, he retains the services of Herholdt and has strong form to recommend, if the race goes his way he could be hard to beat here but there are others with chances. Fort Success makes strong appeal and back to the 1000m could suite him perfectly, Simply Charming needs to repeat her penultimate run to feature but with the services of Khumalo she could easily win a race of this nature, I would suggest watching the betting on Khumalo, another very interesting runner is Nisa's Trip having her 1st run at Bingo, she's bred beautifully and has a big chance if repeating her last, back to 1000m could suite her and pure class could prevail if things go her way, On The Thames also makes appeal but I prefer the stable companion, Enchanting Lass and Bella Rina have much to do to find a place. Selections - Fort Success X Beez Brother X Nisa's Trip

Race 3 : Well many would probably look past Coy Boy BUT he makes some appeal to me especially at 66/1, back down in trip he has beaten some decent types including Euphoria over 1200m, Marco Van Rensburg gets the ride and I would keep a close eye on the betting. Obviously a very open looking race and with natural improvement Atso Time must be considered a massive runner, he does meet Wind at your Back at similar weights but surely has more scope for improvement, strangely he's not for me today. Wolf in Winter has run against a very smart individual three times and his penultimate was only 0,50 lengths off the mighty Anger. Rousseau, Wolfs Girl, Tiger Tales, Fly me High and Forest Flyer all have obvious chances but make little appeal in the form of the eventual winner. Rebel Assault looks a major threat and he's form of late has been superb, it's also he's 3rd run after a rest so he'll be ready to take on this bunch. Wind at Your Back has shown consistent form lately and at best he could find the placing's once again. Selections : Wolf in Winter X Rebel Assault X Atso Time X Coy Boy

To be continued...

rob faux wrote: My 5 cents worth ................I don't think you can compare the Kotze coup with Summer Strike..............she is a maiden that I would guess has suddenly shown better work or they fixed a problem, but weights are fixed so no benefit from previous form.
The Kotze coup was clearly reducing MR by at least 5-6 lengths and then backing in a handicap ,to get the benefit!

Agreed Rob! Look I'm just making the clanner's aware, it could be something or it could be nothing at all. Just strange that both Borman runners have been backed from big odds.