Competitive and plenty potentials. Playing small as no stand outs for me but, we continue to hope! As always please use the daily thread for any comments, thoughts, telling me I have overlooked this or that (please!) or anything else!
RACE 1 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 BEACH BAR - Miller/MVR. Last two not his best efforts, previously usually thereabouts and probably won't be far off but 3.75l behind Counting House lto over c/d and no reason to suppose that will be reversed.
2 SECRET DELIGHT - 4 bronzes in 13 c runs, 3 coming in 6 efforts over c/d. Looks held on the run behind Five Rings back in October and though has been running over further since, form seems to be on the slide.
3 COUNTING HOUSE - Sham/Gunter. 2nd on c debut over 1200 and followed that with another 2nd over c/d. Although that was not the strongest of maidens nor is this and he had a number of these rivals behind that day. If repeating that run, now on 3rd run after a rest, then he has to have a very decent chance.
4 EXTREME DREAM - Rugg. At best would have a small chance, close to BB on the run behind Five Rings but was disappointing lto and had a 15 week break since. is seemingly not the stable elect but appie does take a little weight off.
5 BRANTWOOD - Rugg/Brown. Seemingly stable elect but has had consecutive 22 and 43 week breaks after reportedly not striding out lto. Was a respectable 2l 4th on c debut prior to that over c/d and has has had 2 runs over this d without being disgraced on the Vaal sand. If fit and well then not without hope but too many question marks for me. Possible idiot depending on price.
6 WHERE FOR ART THOU - Achieved little on the turf in 7 runs but there is a little in the breeding to suggest that he might take to the surface. Trainer is in excellent form and Muzi booked so possibly worth a look depending on the price.
7 SCIENTIST - On 2nd run after a 19 week rest and has a silver and bronze from his 2 c runs, both over 1200 and there have been 4 subsequent winners from his 2nd effort. If the turf run following the break has brought him on then a definite contender.
8 NEW GOLD - SVW/Herholdt. Well beaten in all three runs and almost 10l back of CH lto, even if breaking better than he has to date, it is hard to see where the necessary turbo booster will come from to overturn the form.
9 YANKEE MASTER - No closer than 13.25l of the winner in 8 c runs over various trips and over 20l back of CH lto.
10 PRINCESS CHICHIBU - Miller. Had a few respectable runs in her 7 c runs with two third places, often not beaten far but seems to lack the extra needed to win. Doubt she will be beaten too far but coming off an 11 week break and seemingly not stable elect, not for me.
11 SET THE SCENE - Drops to the minimum d on 2nd run after a 22 week rest and has silvers over 1400 and 1600 in 4 c runs, having drawn poorly on each occasion. Not impossible but probable she will find this on the sharp side.
12 MISS WILDFIRE - On 2nd run after a 38 week rest. Only finished within single figure lengths of the winner in 5 sand runs, 4 here and 4 over this d. Was beaten 21l in comeback run over 1200.
13 FOR YOUR EYES ONLY - Visser. Was beaten 13l on return from a 12 week rest over 1200 in only her second c run (when drawn 13/14). Was a regular performer on the Vaal sand and though put in the occasional fair run, she is 0-1-2 in 31 career runs. Not completely impossible but makes little appeal. And of course one should never underestimate the "powers" of this stable.
14 HER HIGHNESS - Sham. C debut. Nothing in the breeding suggests she will take to the surface and has been well beaten in all 3 turf starts and by 14l in her one start on the vaal sand over this d. Seemingly not stable elect.
15 THE MATADOR - Reserve. Rugg. One third in 7 c/d runs and seems well held by CH.
16 FORTINBRAS - Reserve. Spies. Not within 16l of the winner in her 3 runs to date, 2 here and one on the Vaal sand. Hard to see him being involved.
Counting House holds a number of these rivals and would seem the obvious choice. That said, he is likely to be short in the market and the form is not the strongest. The one I think might give him most to do is Scientist, who has had two fair c runs and the last run may have brought him on. Could possibly be a better value option e/w. Beach Bar and Extreme Dream could fight out the minor places. Where For Art Thou could be the surprise package and outsiders I will do price checks on Brantwood and, just because of the stable, For Your Eyes Only (both priced up around 12s, lousy imho)... SCIENTIST x COUNTING HOUSE x BEACH BAR
RACE 2 - 1000 MAIDEN JUVENILE
1 BRIZE NORTON - Spies/Chambers. Sand debut. Seemingly stable elect but well beaten in the wet on turf debut at big odds and nothing in the breeding suggests to me he will take to the sand but a combination who are in form and to be respected.
2 DARE TO WARE - Spies/Brown. Sand debut. Seemingly not stable elect. Well beaten in both turf runs at big odds, slow away on both occasions and nothing in the breeding suggests he will definitely take to the sand.
3 HOLDERSTEBOLDER - Spies. Seemingly not stable elect. Beaten 37l in the wet in only turf run when slow away at big odds, but the breeding suggests he could take to the surface.
4 GEE I JANE - Spies. Debut. Seemingly not stable elect and up against the boys but the appie gives her a light weight and the breeding suggests a fair chance she will take to the sand.
5 MELITA - Miller/MVR. Beaten 4.5l into 2nd on debut over c/d in what does not look the strongest of maidens but she does have the advantage of a c run.
6 ON THE THAMES - Debut. Breeding suggests a possibilty she will take to the sand but the trainer form is the big concern.
7 TO BE BRAVE - Sham/Funeka. Nothing on the breeding confirms to me that she will definitely be one that takes to the sand.
Not my kind of race. Melita would seem the obvious choice but she is likely to be short in the market and perhaps possibly worth noting that in the run she was 2nd Spies also had 4 runners in the race, including 1st and 3rd so he may know the strength of the opposition. The winner of that race was 4.5l ahead of Brize Norton (turf) and that is the same d Melita was beaten (sand). The two Spies runners that on breeding imply to me they might go well on the surface are the two girls and the rides of the two "junior" jocks of the four. I was going to go with Gee I Jane but having now seen the prices, I'll stick with Chambers in the hope that he is on the right one of the Spies quartet, though I confess I am not convinced! lol... PRIZE NORTON x GEE I JANE x MELITA
RACE 3 - 1200 MAIDEN
1 DUCK DODGER - Miller. Well beaten on c debut over 1000 following a 25 week rest. Could come on for that but seemingly not stable elect and a watching brief for me,
2 ETHEMBA - Sham/Gunter. Sand debut. Some fair runs in CT and the breeding implies there is a decent chance she will take to the sand. If so, she should have a very good chance, just slightly concerned about she will see out the trip.
3 MILA MYST - Spies/Chambers. Last two turf runs were particularly poor and has had consecutive 40 and 13 week breaks. If fit and well then has a chance from the 4 box but not one on breeding that is a definite taker to the surface.
4 LEGEND'S MOON - Some crediable efforts with two 3rds in her 7 c runs. Muzi is booked and looks the most likely of those with c experience though, again, slight concerns over the d.
5 POOR MAN'S PRIDE - Miller/MVR. Well beaten lto over 1600 but prior to that finished 2nd and 3rd in 2 efforts over c/d, albeit in weak looking maidens. Has been off 20 weeks and a good draw in 2 so if fit and well then must enter calculations.
6 CLOUD RUNNER - Rugg/Brown. Not shown a great deal in her 3 runs to date and was close-up with a few of these rivals lto but like the others has drawn poorly in 10.
7 CASH CROP - Not shown a great deal in her 4 runs to date and was close-up with a few of these rivals lto but like the others has drawn poorly in 14. On 2nd run after a 10 week break.
8 INFINITE POWER - SVW/Herholdt. Sand debut. Not achieved much in 3 turf runs and comes off a 16 week rest. Breeding suggests a chance she will take to the sand but the 13 draw is a distinct disadvantage.
9 MEAN LIKE MOM - Rugg/AA. Seemingly not stable elect and despite strong support in her sand debut she has not shown much in her 3 c runs. Was close-up with a few of these rivals lto but like the others has drawn poorly in 12.
10 MEGA FLASH DRIVE - On 3rd run after a 17 week rest but has not shown much in her 2 c runs (or 9 career runs, not within single lengths of the winner) and was behind a few of these lto. Trainer in very good form but hard to see why this one should improve the stats.
11 CREDULOUS - SVW. Seemingly not stable elect and returns from a 16 week break, Best run and only top 3 finish was over c/d but was 1.5l behind PMP in that run.
12 TRIPLE RHYME - Sham. Well beaten in c debut over 1400 and close-up with a few of these rivals lto but like the others has drawn poorly in 11.
13 TATSUMAKI - Good draw in 3 but no top 3s in 8 career runs and not within single figure lengths of the winner in last 6 outings.
14 ORNELLA - 55/1 when refusing to jump on "debut", trainer out of form and drawn 15.
15 UNRELATED - Reserve/Sham. No top 3s or within single figure lengths of the winner in 9 c runs.
Not a great contest and I see it between Ethemba and Legends Moon but have some concerns with the d for both. If Ethemba takes to the surface then, d issues aside, I think she will win. If both fade badly then Cloud Runner may be the one to take advantage, she finished close-up with a few others lto but is now on 3rd run after a rest and is no worse off with the draw than in that last run... ETHEMBA x LEGENDS MOON x CLOUD RUNNER
RACE 4 - 1400 MAIDEN
1 IMPERIAL COAST - Miller/Herholdt. Well beaten on c debut over 1000 and on second run after an 18 week rest. May come on for that but seemingly not stable elect and a watching brief.
2 JACOBUS MAXIMUS - Visser/Yeni. Been thereabouts a few times but I suspect he may prefer further and got going too late lto over this d and it may be the same here. Not without hope but the 11 draw won't help either.
3 MORPHEUS ECSTASY - Miller. Not within 9 lengths of the winner in 3 c runs, seemingly not stable elect and returns from a 12 week break. A good draw in 3 but unlikely.
4 MOUNTAIN RUSH - Sham/Gunter. Been off for 31 weeks but if fit must enter the equation with a 0-2-1 record in 3 c runs with the 3rd coming over c/d..
5 MELODY PIPA - Rugg/Brown. Sand debut. Has the 1 box but on 2nd run after an 11 week rest and having achieved little on the turf in 10 runs, there is nothing in the breeding that says to me he will definitely show improvement on the sand.
6 IN DEMAND - Well beaten over 1800 lto on c debut but drops back in trip here which may suit. Has a wide draw to contend with also but possibly worth a small idiot depending on price.
7 TOP INNINGS - Beaten 24l and 29l in his 2 c/d runs. Poor stable form and should not feature.
8 BRUDDA - Sham/Funeka. Sand debut. Little in two turf runs but breeding implies a chance of taking to this surface and gets the alumites fitted. Another possibly worth a small idiot depending on price.
9 FUN FACTORY - 19l defeat on debut over 1000. Step up in trip but wide draw and poor trainer form.
10 JAGUAR - Sand debut. Off 22 weeks following a hefty defeat on turf debut and has a wide draw but the breeding does suggest a very good chance he will enjoy the surface, primary idiot bet in the race.
11 JAN BUN - Debut. Nothing in the breeding to suggest he will definitely enjoy the surface. Watching brief.
12 PLANISPHERE - Miller/MVR. Good debut when just being caught late over c/d and 4th has won since. Must have very strong claims here but is likely to be short in the market and is drawn widest.
13 RIVER MIST - Best effort to date in 4 c runs was a 5l 4th over c/d in his penultimate run. Has a good draw in 2 but overall form looks weak and seems well held on collateral.
14 LAYETTE - Sham. Was behind RM on c debut in the run referred to aove, beaten 11l and no reason why sufficient progress will be made to win here.
Planisphere is the obvious one but the price from that draw is enough to make me look for other potentials at prices. There are a few of those in Jaguar, Brumma, In Demand. I am put off Jacubus Maximus by a combination of draw and d and Mountain Rush might prove the main danger if fit and I am assuming Gunter still has first choice on the sand. Based on expected value... JAGUAR x IN DEMAND x MOUNTAIN RUSH
RACE 5 - 1400 H'CAP-66
1 THE FLYING NUN - Goosen/MVR. C debut. Interesting jockey booking for LG but this one was well beaten on her only run on the Vaal sand. Stumbled that day but with nothing in the breeding indicating to me that she will perform better here, she has to be no more than a watching brief.
2 BETWEEN THE COVERS - Greeff/Yeni. If memore serves me right, this horse is at the stables of Tienie Prinsloo who are in very good form recently. Won on c debut lto over this d coming off an 11 week rest. Concern is he moves from draw 1 to 11 but if overcoming that must have a strong chance of following up.
3 WITH PASSION - Sham/Gunter. Consistent performer who has only two 3rds in 7 c/d runs but is rarely beaten far. Seemingly stable elect and from the 3 draw is likely to be thereabouts again but, as usual, will probably find a couple better and is only 3kgs better off with Pole Dance for a 6l beating over 1200 lto..
4 GREY AREA - Beaten 6.25l on c debut lto over 1000 when on 2nd run after a 39 week break. Step up in d may suit, appie continues to take a little weight off and has the 1 box, idiot contender depending on price.
5 POLE DANCE - SVW/Herholdt. Good win lto over 1200 and is 0-2-1 in her 3 c/d runs. Should be a major contender. Has run decently from bad draws before, but the main concern must be coming from the 16 box.
6 ELEGANT TUNE - Sham/Funeka. Sand debut, Respectable turf form and if taking to the surface should be in with a shout but nothing in the breeding suggests she will definitely enjoy the sand, watching brief.
7 CARIBBEAN CRUISE - Rugg/Brown. Beaten 12.5l lto over 1200 by PD and on sand debut was beaten 16l over c/d. Only one top 3 in 11 d attempts. Seems unlikely but breeding does imply she could perform on the surface and both sand runs were from poor draws and came after a 25 week break. Some of her previous turf form is respectable and although not a great draw again here in 8, she is on 3rd run after a rest and might still improve. Miniscule idiot.
8 DAYLAMITE - Recent turf form has improved though and won her maiden in a WR lto. Beaten 23l on debut on the Vaal sand over 1200 (drawn 12/12) though and nothing in the breeding states to me that this will be her surface. Has a wide draw in 15 and a watching brief for me.
9 WISPER THE WIND - Usually campaigns over shorter and is consistent over those trips but did run 3rd in her only c/d attempt from the 10 box. Was also drawn wide when beaten 10.5l by PD over 1200 but is drawn widest of all here in 17 and likely to find it difficult to feature from there.
10 SHE'S AMAZING - Sham. Won maiden well in penultimate but 17.75l behind PD over 1200 lto when drawn 2. Only try this trip was well beaten on the turf when drawn 1. If last run is overlooked then a chance as has another good draw in 2 but she has questions to answer now for me and is seemingly not the stable elect.
11 FRISKY DANCER - Rugg/AA. Decent maiden win in penultimate over c/d when drawn 11 and coming off an 13 week rest but very disappointing over 1600 lto. Maiden win is her only top 3 in 12 career runs. Might find it difficult again from the 12 box but if she settles in running better then not completely without hope. I shant be chancing her but it would not completely shock me to see her win as some of her efforts have been respectable.
12 VICTORIA PARK - Won over 1000 lto, her only top 3 in 8 runs, and tries this d for the first time. Not the best or worst drawn in 9 and has appie taking weight off so not without hope if staying the trip but there has to be a big question over that will be the case.
13 COUNTESS KATE - Beaten 3.5l by VP lto over 1000 and is probably better over shorter but does have a silver in 5 c/d runs. Often not too far away and should run respectably but not the winner for me.
14 TEA 'N YOU - Visser. Returns from a 22 week break following a hefty defeat lto. Previous to that had some creditable runs and if fit is not without hope from the 4 box with many of the main contenders drawn high. Price check for potential small idiot.
15 WAY WITH WORDS - Reserve. Rugg. Beaten 12.5l by PD lto when returning from a 12 week break. Was 2nd and then won her maiden runs on c and only beaten 3.25l in first run out of the maidens. tries this trip for the first time on the sand, if getting a run not completely without hope, especially if the scratching is another Rugg horse.
16 TOAST OF THE TOWN - Reserve. Visser. C debut. Poor last two on the turf and comes off a 10 week break but breeding suggests a fair chance she will like the surface. If getting a run will be more interested if it is a Visser scratching but not the best draw.
17 DUCHESS CATHERINE - Reserve. Unlikely to run and recent form poor. Pass.
Most of the, imo, principal contenders have high draws here and that could allow one to sneak through on the inner. Pole Dance on her last run must have a chance but the 16 draw does sap confidence somewhat (but having seen the prices does look some e/w value to me) so I will side with Between The Covers to follow up. Dangers could come from anywhere and of the bigger priced ones Grey Area, She's Amazing and Tea N You, from their draws, among others, make some appeal. Likely to focus on small idiot bets but for the record... BETWEEN THE COVERS x POLE DANCE x GREY AREA
Tiring and running out of time...
RACE 6 - 1400
There is nothing in the breeding to suggest to me that TWO GUN KID will definitely take to the sand but I think if he does then he can win from a good draw in 4. If not then I'll take SKY MARSHAL to complete the hat-trick, good recent form and drawn better than some here. EYE OF THE WORLD can never be discounted and, somewhat sadly, seems to me to have become another Visser "meddled" horse, never quite sure these days what you are going to get... though I am fairly sure they have a pretty good idea. WINGS OF AN ANGEL could easily go in again but is on the 4-timer and a wide draw. JACK DAN has been out of sorts recently and can't be supported until a form return. KINGOFMOUNTAIN disappointed again lto but won his penultimate and from the 1 box could go well. CODE RED seems to be struggling to find his best form of late and can only be a watching brief for me here. ZULU KING would be a classic Visser winner if getting home first here having been soundly beaten in his last two runs over this d. Hard to see him winning without an influence or two. SUDDEN SURPRISE has yet to finish in the top 3 in 3 tries at the d but has to be respected and has been running well recently, especially considering two recent saddle slips. HERE I AM has to be a contender getting 7kgs for a 3.25l defeat by WOAA lto but the wide draw is a concern. SUGAR AND SHAKE could be the surprise package, has run creditably on the Vaal sand, gets a good draw and is 1-2-2 in 13 d runs but has only one top 3 in his last 11 runs. WIND AT YOUR BACK is nearly always thereabouts and if a decent price could be worth an e/w or place bet if only based on consistency but does look well held by SM on the last run. STONE REEVES makes his c debut after 15 weeks off. Has been campaigning over further and the drop in trip may help but nothing in the breeding says to me he will definitely take to the surface, watching brief. Plenty of possibles but I'll chance... TWO GUN KID x SKY MARSHALL x KINGOFMOUNTAIN
RACE 7 - 1600 H'CAP-76
Very close between my top two selections who have both in excellent form of late but with one on a a 4-timer and having the worse of the draw, I'll go with QUICK GLANCE x SUGAR RAY x FOAM PARTY with SIR ISAAC the one at a bigger price that might surprise.
RACE 8 - 1800 H'CAP-66
Tricky affair with some newcomers to the sand and some with experience in good form. Of those with experience it is hard to pass by BLUSHING GREY who has been in fine form recently. REGAL BREEZE, CIDER APPLE and DARE TO BE GRAND all have claims and OLYMPIC GOAL is worth a mention. Of the others MISS DIANA could be the right one, decent turf form, has the 1 box and the breeding indicates a good chance she will take to the surface. The only Soma runner of the day is RUN GIRL WILD. I don't remember them having too many runners at Bingo and although this one's breeding does suggest she may go better on the sand, she was well beaten over 1600 in her only run on the Vaal sand. Drops in d to a trip she is 0-1-1 in 3 attempts and can't be overlooked. Worth a small idiot if a big price. MISS DIANA x BLUSHING GREY x DARE TO BE GRAND
RACE 9 - 1200 H'CAP-66
TRIPARTITE is probable the safe play, he has not been out of the first 5 in his last 16 runs but, at the same time has only one one of those. Still, this is not the strongest of fields and from the 4 box he should be thereabouts again. VAR LIGHT is one worth considering at a big price though if you like Tripartite. Lto VL finished 0.75l ahead of Tripartitie and is only 1kg worse off, the big problem though is he goes from the 1 box to 16. Still, maybe Ziets has worked a bit of magic with that one and the price differential may make it worth a miniscule idiot. KING OF THE CASTLE merits respect from the 1 box but has yet to be in the top 3 in 4 c/d runs. BUDWEISER BOY is likely to be competitive if taking to the surface but nothing tells that will definitely be the case. AUTHENTICATED always strikes me as one that should do better and until that happens will be a pass for me. FOREST FLYER can't be discounted after winning his maiden well over 1000 on only his c run and gets a good draw in 2. JAGERBOMB tempts me but the d is a big concern from the 11 box, he has been reported as running on strongly over 1000 recently so is a definite possibility but I would be happier from a lower draw. The other one that interests me a little is BOOGY BOY, seemingly the stable elect, tries the blinkers and despite the draw of 12 I think he might be competitive with the drop back to 1200. Although nothing would really shock me in this one, imo the rest should finish as exactly that, the rest! Looking for value as I think anything could win... FOREST FLYER x TRIPARTITE x BOOGY BOY
Sham trebles n up... ETHEMBA x COUNTING HOUSE x MOUNTAIN RUSH x TWO GUN KID x MISS DIANA x BUDWEISER BOY
Hope for all that have direct interest in runners, they all go well for you ... Shams n Stef, Ziets, Rock, Bob/Dave n all clanners involved.
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
Topic Author
-D 
