Vaal Thurs 30/1/14

Frodo Wrote:

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> Tommy_Hotspur Wrote:
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>

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> > pirates Wrote:
> >
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>
> >

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> > > im surprized nobody is jumping down gary
> > > alexanders throat with regards to flight
> > warning
> > > who got a 9 pound penalty for his last run
> > ...the
> > > winner got a max 8 pound penalty for winning
> a
> > > hcap but closer scrutiny shows you that was
> > racing
> > > 1kg under sufferance plus the jockey was a
> half
> > a
> > > kg over weight...so he got 6 points for
> running
> > > 2nd a further 2 points for beinga kg under
> > > sufferance and a further point for the jock
> > being
> > > overweight....lets see how he goes today
> >
> > I think he is a very good up and coming stayer
> but
> > he is carrying a lot of weight today for a 3
> year
> > old over a trip. There are some hard knockers
> > running in that race and it will be tough for
> > him.
> >
> > Still, he is definitely above this class imo,
> just
> > not sure about above this class at these
> weights
> > right now.....
>
>
> 6 kg's worse off with Pole Star after finishing
> behind him behind The Barbadian - would have to
> improve in MomF fashion to have a say today :S


I absolutely agree he is not well in, if that wasn't clear in my post I apologize
However Pole star is drawn wide and is decidedly average whereas FW has some upside especially since I believe he will go 2 miles easy.....

Not a race to go short in

flight warning was very badly interefered with when running behind the barbadian in fact he should of won that day...for those who want to back manzai watch him go down first as he hasnt exactly floated down to the start in his last two runs

anybody care to give an opinion to what rating cagiva ran to last time?he was way under sufferance but only could get a max 6 point penalty so he is theoritically speaking very well in today

Hey, what about Suatan in the 9th?

pirates Wrote:

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> anybody care to give an opinion to what rating
> cagiva ran to last time?he was way under
> sufferance but only could get a max 6 point
> penalty so he is theoritically speaking very well
> in today

He was 7 pounds under sufferance with both the 2nd(Killua Castle) and 3rd(Wild One),whom he beat 0,5L and 0,75L respectively.He therefore ran to about a 91/92.

Personally I think he is a very unexposed horse(by the top Sire) who's only been the right trip a few times.Long term I think he is a 100+,so I would agree that he is still underrated.

pirates Wrote:

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> anybody care to give an opinion to what rating
> cagiva ran to last time?he was way under
> sufferance but only could get a max 6 point
> penalty so he is theoritically speaking very well
> in today


Happy to say I was on him last time - I make that run a 92, so still well in today imo - closest thing to a P6 banker :S

pirates Wrote:

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> flight warning was very badly interefered with
> when running behind the barbadian in fact he
> should of won that day...for those who want to
> back manzai watch him go down first as he hasnt
> exactly floated down to the start in his last two
> runs

...but he got 8 pounds(+1 for the overweight) for running 2nd last time.

Justanotherpunter Wrote:

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> pirates Wrote:
>

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>

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> > flight warning was very badly interefered with
> > when running behind the barbadian in fact he
> > should of won that day...for those who want to
> > back manzai watch him go down first as he hasnt
> > exactly floated down to the start in his last
> two
> > runs
>
> ...but he got 8 pounds(+1 for the overweight) for
> running 2nd last time.


he actually got 6 for running 2nd and an extra 2 for being under sufferance by 2 pounds in that race

After Pirates warning about Manzai who could perhaps go down short as he has been doing I ventured a little look at the first timers as I still don't think it is a strong field.....

This horse Three quarter interests me as he is bread to fly......Perhaps a little 25/1 E/W could be value at this stage?

I make Cagiva a big runner today and a winning bet. The rest of the card is "caution" written all over it.
I"m going to give Akii Bua another chance today and maybe more suited to this two extra furlongs. Blake Carrington in race 10 looks a solid bet. Something tell me that Via Della Tigre is going to relish the extra distance and don't leave her out of anything. A Nice value bet is in Race 5 - Maji Moto - I expect an improved run from this individual. Corne Spies stick to Boarding Call ( a bleddie superhorse) that run sometimes twice a week. Obviously sees more in this horse and a nice value bet as well.That's my story for the day, play well!!

Tommy_Hotspur Wrote:

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> After Pirates warning about Manzai who could
> perhaps go down short as he has been doing I
> ventured a little look at the first timers as I
> still don't think it is a strong field.....
>
> This horse Three quarter interests me as he is
> bread to fly......Perhaps a little 25/1 E/W could
> be value at this stage?


expecting improvement from adi star ..first run was in strong field and the next time they backed off the boards but pulled very badly and today come back to min dist with tongue tie...only negative stable slightly off the boil

pirates Wrote:

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> Tommy_Hotspur Wrote:
>

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>

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> > After Pirates warning about Manzai who could
> > perhaps go down short as he has been doing I
> > ventured a little look at the first timers as I
> > still don't think it is a strong field.....
> >
> > This horse Three quarter interests me as he is
> > bread to fly......Perhaps a little 25/1 E/W
> could
> > be value at this stage?
>
>
> expecting improvement from adi star ..first run
> was in strong field and the next time they backed
> off the boards but pulled very badly and today
> come back to min dist with tongue tie...only
> negative stable slightly off the boil


Yip - now that Battle of Alma is out, I make the first race a real minefield - will rather watch :S