Slightly different and not as "in depth" as some of my historical efforts. My conclusion on finishing, there are a few likely winners but still nothing I was that confident about and nothing that really got me "excited" at bigger prices, still they might prove useful to someone. Should you choose to peruse, as before, please put comments/thoughts on the daily thread rather than here.
RACE 1...
The biggest indicator is probably that MVR takes the ride on sand debutant Imperial Coast over stablemate Beach Bar. There is nothing in the breeding that says to me IC will definitely enjoy the sand and he comes off an 18 week break but the jockey booking is difficult to ignore.
Beach Bar is 0-5-1 in 7 c/d runs, mentioned a few times elsewhere but definitely has a big bridesmaid tag and just doesn't look like winning much of the time imo.
Forest Flyer was a 2.75l 4th on his sand debut in a weak looking maiden last week over 1400. This drop in trip may suit him.
Counting House was 5.5l ahead of BB on sand debut over 1200. It is fair to say that BB is much better over 1000 but that might also be true of CH who was also coming off a 14 week rest. The form of that race could be very poor though, the third finished 13l behind FF nto, albeit over 1400, and the winner was beaten 17.75l and 13th of 14 when 5/1 jt fav in his first run out of the maidens.
The Matador may be sharper for his run following a 16 week rest but has no top 3s in 6 c/d runs.
Of the others, the only one who might possibly get involved is imo Layette. She is up against the boys, seemingly not the Sham stable elect, was well beaten in her sand debut over 1400 and there is nothing in the breeding that indicates she will be a good performer on the sand but, her best performance on the turf was her only attempt over the minimum trip.
Instinct says go with Imperial Coast but will look at the prices before deciding... IMPERIAL COAST x FOREST FLYER x COUNTING HOUSE x BEACH BAR
RACE 2...
Jack Dan has been completely out of form recently and though a 10 week rest may have refreshed him, a 9 week break failed to bring any improvement in his last 3 runs.
Code Red also lost a little form towards the end of the year but was only 0.25l behind
Kingofmountain last time they met over c/d, CR is now 1.5kgs better off and has a reversal of draw advantage in his favour. He also has a 3-1-1 c/d record in 6 runs to Kom's 1-0-3 in 5.
The problem for them both is that defeat was to Here I Am who is 3-1-0 in 4 c/d runs. HIA though is now 5kgs worse off with CR. He was well beaten lto over 1200 but was drawn 13/14 so perhaps is best overlooked.
Hunters Green was 17.25l behind Kom lto and should not be involved.
Captain de Lago has been well beaten the last twice, both over 1600, but had problems and returns from 15 and then 23 week rests. The blinkers go back on and he has a light weight, if fit he could well be competitive but is probably not the safe bet in the field and will be a watching brief.
Zulu King was 6.75l behind HIA over the 1200 race mentioned above, also from a bad draw. He has had two poor runs since an 18 week break and is 0-1-0 in 3 c/d runs but Khumalo is up and he can't be discounted given that he is from the Visser stable who had some decent results last week and the "form" of their horses can fluctuate like a yoyo on a permanent spring.
That said, more likely to be a threat from that stable is Wings Of An Angel who is unbeaten in 4 over c/d and has one 4th plus a 5-3-0 record in her last 9 runs. She must have a chance but she is up against the boys, some of who are very decent performers at this level.
Given the likely prices I'm going to chance Code Red to take advantage of the draw and weight changes... CODE RED x HERE I AM x KINGOFMOUNTAIN
RACE 3...
Vernon Rugg has three in the field with the outsider Beepbeep getting a low weight and would not be completely without a chance if recapturing his best form but he was beaten 11l by King Of The Castle lto and was 7.25l by stablemate Boogy Boy back in August.
Boogy Boy gets Brown up but he does seem held on recent runs by the third of the stable's runners, Night Landing.
Night Landing has the best draw of the three and has finished ahead of BB the last twice they have met, Gunter climbs aboard.
King Of the Castle represents Miller/MVR and has a 2-0-1 record in 3 c/d runs. In his penultimate run he finished 0.55l ahead of NL. Both are better drawn here and NL is 0.5kg better off so it is likely to be close between them again. The booking of Gunter though might help get a few extra inches from NL.
Authenticated has been well beaten in both his runs at Bingo having transferred from the Vaal sand where he also showed little, he is on second run after a rest so he may come on for that last run but he is not for me until he shows something more than he has to date.
Tamarack cruised in on sand debut over c/d by 6.5l but in 4 post maiden runs has been well beaten in 3 of those. Lto was well behind when drawn 10/11 over 1200 following a 39 week rest, that may have brought her on but she still looks unlikely.
Imperani is drawn in 10 and though not so far behind does look safely held by a couple of these rivals, particularly NL.
Sacred Rose is a sand debutant for the Human stable but there is nothing in the breeding that indicates to me she will take to the surface.
There is a rare Alan Greeff raider from PE, Between the Covers. There is a little in the breeding to suggest he will take to the sand and hard to think AG would be sending the horse up unless he believes there is a good chance of him enjoying the surface. Muzi gets on board and he has the 1 draw but he has no top 3s in 3 d runs and normally campaigns over shorter. It would help if anyone knows if Agent Greeff will be on course?
NIGHT LANDING x KING OF THE CASTLE x BETWEEN THE COVERS
RACE 4...
Sugar Ray holds a few of these on his c debut run over 2200. Given that he won his last run at the Vaal sand over 1600 in good fashion the drop in d should not be an issue, he is on 3rd run after a rest, has the 1 draw and Brown takes the ride despite the fact there is a Rugg runner in the field... I think he will be very hard to beat.
King Fernando was only 0.75l back of SR over 2200 and is 0.5kg better off here. That run did come off a rest but he was well beaten lto and does not seem the most consistent, he is 1-0-0 in 10 d runs (4 on c), though that win did come on this c. Not without a chance but not one I think likely.
Dolomite was close to KF lto but his form has taken a, not untypical of the stable, big downward turn of late. Will he return to previous levels, who knows!
Karlo has improved at his new stable with two thirds, he was beaten 3l by SR over 2200 and is 2kgs better off here but his record is 0-1-2 in 11 c/d runs and again I much favour SR at this d.
Super Groove is an interesting contender, 8.75l back of SR over 2200 but was reported lame, he is 4kgs better off here. He has finished behind Karlo in both his last two but, if he could reproduce his effort of three runs back when winning first time out of the maidens over c/d then he will be in with a decent chance. He does seem to like to lead though and may have to use energy to get there from the 11 box, particularly as Miesque's Force is another who likes to go from the front and he is drawn 9 with Gunter up.
He could well fight Miesque's Force for the lead and that would no doubt be detrimental to the chances of both. MF returns from a 22 week rest which was probably needed as his latest runs were probably a little off his best. He is 1-5-0 in 12 c/d efforts but the fact that Brown is up on SR is a possible indicator that he may need the run.
Bruce P faded badly on c debut and is well held by Thunderstreak on that run, should not be involved.
Thunderstreak though has possibilities. He was well behind SR over 2200 but I think he is far more suited to this d. He improved on runs behind Quick Glance over 1600 (with a 3.5kg pull) by 6l when going from the widest to a midfield draw and was running on last time. He won his only effort over c/d convincingly and with another midfield draw here, could well be a player. My concern is the blinkers go back on and when previously used they might have had an adverse rather than positive affect.
On face value, Fort Dixy is a seemingly inconsistent raider from the Vaal sand, he is still a maiden after 21 runs and though his form looks well below tht of SR, he does get a low weight and a much better draw than in recent efforts. If he takes to the Bingo sand then he may be more competitive than would seem likely. On 7 November FD (under WR Duma) ran the Vaal sand 1600 in 103.89 from the 3 draw, on the same day SR (Fradd) ran the same c/d in 103.18 from the 11 box. Although in subsequent runs the times went in different directions, SR's last run at Vaal apart, their general times were not too dissimilar. From those runs on Nov 7th, FD is 14kgs better off with SR. Make of it what you will! MVR a decent jockey booking too.
Dare To Be Grand is back out for Ziets (all the best bud!) and he made a decent c debut last week over c/d. this looks tougher though and he was beaten 11.5l by SR three runs back on the Vaal sand, DTBG is now 5kg betters off.
And that just leaves two more Visser runners, El Manolete has been out of sight in his last 4 runs, 3 on the sand including his c debut lto. Surely not even this stable can bring about the dramatic return to form that would be required from the widest draw!! But, then again...?
Familiar Chat gets the 2 box but has been well beaten by Thunderstreak, SG (not striding) and SR in his last 3 runs. Surely not even this stable can bring about the turnaround in form with all three that would be required here!! But, then again...?
All things considered Sugar Ray looks hard to oppose but it would not be a complete shock if he gets beaten and I will certainly be doing a price check on Thunderstreak and Fort Dixy. Super Groove is another possible but I think a combination of the draw and a potential battle for the lead may cost him. A couple of others have small chances at their best but ... SUGAR RAY x THUNDERSTREAK x FORT DIXY
RACE 5...
Sweet Latte is yet another Visser horse to have had an extreme drop in form recently, though in her case she was reported lame before taking a 19 week rest and has been well beaten in her 3 subsequent runs over shorter. She is 1-1-0 over c/d in 3 runs and if returning to form would be a contender.
Glamazon was beaten 7.75l by Desert Breeze over c/d lto. She has had a 12 week rest since and meets on 5kgs better terms, if the rest has freshened her up then she is not without hope but the 10 box won't help.
Worth noting perhaps, another Vugg runner here, Frisky Dancer, returned from a similar rest (13 weeks) to win her maiden lto at 20/1. It was perhaps not the strongest field but from a rest and drawn 11/14, for her to win by 3.5l was a much improved effort. With the appie up a very low weight, FD is not without hope of following up.
Cider Apple also has an appie up giving her a low weight and she has come back to form in her last couple of races, winning her penultimate when drawn 8/9 (2nd won nto) and a 2.3l 4th lto when drawn 11/14, both over c/d. With a much better draw in 3 I think she is likely to be very competitive.
Duchess Catherine and Scarlett O'Tibbs look well held on recent runs and hard to see a reason why either should find sudden improvement.
Cadillac Baby has been beaten by a different one of these rivals in each of her last 4 runs and though not beaten far, at the weights and now having the widest draw of all, it will be difficult for her to overturn them all.
Silken Sea seems inconsistent. She was finishing like the proverbial express train lto when going down by 0.75l to Blushing Grey over 1800 and though she gets the 1 box she is 0.5kg worse off. Not without a chance but I don't think the drop in trip will be in her favour.
Blushing Grey has been much improved of late and she has run 3rd, 2nd, 1st in her last three. Up in class and gets a good draw in 2 which is much better than the one she had when beaten 0.75l by Foam Party over c/d in her penultimate run. BG is now 2kgs better off with FP.
That was Foam Party's first run on c and she has had 2 fair runs since against the boys, a 1.25l 2nd over 1800 and a 3.75l 4th over 2200. I would favour her more over a little further but she is likely to be thereabouts again.
That leaves Desert Breeze who was beaten 6l by FP over 1800 but gets a 4kg pull here and will probably favour the drop in trip. She has been running consistently at Bingo and won last time she raced over c/d. Although Wings Of An Angel reversed that form lto, the latter race was over 1400 with DB running on well. Back to 1600 I think DB should go well but she does have a fair mass to shoulder and that might make her vulnerable.
Quite a few in with a chance and not a race where I came to a quick decision!! Given the low weight Frisky Dancer could well follow-up and might be worth an e/w if the price is big enough. Also given the weights, her recent form and good draw, I think Cider Apple could prove the one to beat. I just about give her the edge over Desert Breeze who I think could reverse form with Foam Party over this shorter trip, tough to leave the latter out of the equation though! Not easy one but... CIDER APPLE x DESERT BREEZE x FRISKY DANCER x BLUSHING GREY
RACE 6...
Mr Vindaloo has won 5 out of his 6 c/d runs and has continually defied the additional weight lumped on him. He was well beaten over 1200 lto when returning from a 10 week rest but this is his d. He has again been shouldered with more weight and now carries a huge mass but could still defy it.
Varsity Star is a good case in point. In 4 of MV's wins, VS has gone from being beaten 1.75l giving MV 5.5kgs to, last time over this c/d, being beaten 2.25l giving just 0.5kgs. VS now receives 2kgs. The weight has just not seemed to make a difference to MV. Still, VS has to be respected and certainly can't be discounted on these terms.
MV's one defeat over c/d was a 4th to Sudden Surprise, he was drawn on the inside that day which appeared to be to his detriment and went down by 1l. Although well ahead of MV over 1200 lto, SS is now 4.5kgs worse off with MV on that success over 1000. He is in fine form and although he may prefer the additional 200 he is definitely a threat here.
Boston Legal is a full 7.5kgs better off with SS for just 0.1l on the latter's winning run over 1000. He is another who has consistently found MV too good though but is 4.5kgs better off for the 4.75l defeat the last time they met over c/d.
Derbaas is another in good form, He has won 4 of his last 7 over c/d. His worst defeat though was a 6,5l loss to MV. He is 3kgs better off but that was probably a poor run by his standards and he certainly has a fair chance here.
Wolf's Girl has won her last three over c/d, her only runs on the c, and with the appie up she gets a very low weight. She only just won her last two in lower company and is up against the boys here but she has pace and gets a full 14kgs from MV.
Kate's Emblem has a 2-2-3 record in 9 c/d runs but looks well held by WG, going down lto by 4.25l and is now 0.5kg worse off.
House of Josiah comes off a 49 week rest and makes his c debut, hard to see him winning given those facts against some very decent performers and no more than a watching brief for me.
If either Memghar or Hidden Rave win and there is no enquiry then I recommend we all give up for the rest of the year!
Plenty in with a chance but the weight has yet to stop MV and I have done well by him. It could well one ask too many but, until it happens, I will stick with him. For second and third, very tough but I'll go with... MR VINDALOO x DERBAAS x VARSITY STAR
RACE 7...
Cliffer Miller sends out three. Golden Slipper returns from a 26 week rest and is seemingly not stable elect. In her only run over c/d she was beaten 4.25l and seems better over 1200.
Cochineal is on 2nd run after a rest and was well beaten lto over 1200. Again not the stable elect and seemingly would prefer further.
Pearla Gibson is MVR's mount. She is very poor from the gates and lost 6l at the start lto. That was her second run on the c and in the first she showed she had some ability by overcoming a sluggish start to win her maiden. It was not the strongest maiden but a repeat of that run would probably be enough to give her a realistic chance here.
Legend's Moon was beaten 4l by PG in that maiden and she is still without a win. She has seldom been far off in the maidens but her form does not look strong enough imo to win here unless she finds improvement.
Wisper the Wind has not been beaten more than 4.35l in her 5 runs over c/d since her last win and three runs back, over c/d, she was beaten only 0.25l by Theory before going down by 4.35l to Wolf's Girl in her penultimate outing.
She looks closely matched with Hail the Wind. HTW has only two thirds in 4 c/d runs and the last time she met WTW over c/d, behind Theory, WTW finished 1.75l ahead and is 0.5kgs better off here but, there is other form which puts them even closer. Likely to be close again but the Visser stable appeared to be in fair form last week and that may give her the edge over WTW here.
Countess Kate looks well held by the two aforementioned but should not be too far away and might challenge for a place.
Celestial Flag has shown an improvement in form in her three last runs but has been off for 39 weeks and is likely to need it. That said, as mentioned in a previous race, Rugg did have a winner from a rest last week so it may be an idea to watch the stable form in earlier races. Gunter is up and he rode her in two of those last three. Unlikely but not entirely discounted.
Brown is up on stablemate Fleche d'Or. This one has shown little in recent runs and looks held by both HTW and WTW on runs behind Wolf's Girl. No reason to suppose that form will be reversed.
Dawn Eclipse and La Flamme both look safely held and should not feature.
Victoria Park is another that looks held but she did show improvement lto. She was behind a few of these when 4.5l by Theory and at the weights should not reverse the form. But, Muzi is up and the stable has been in good form recently so it would not be the biggest shock. Not for me but possible.
Similarly, Fantasy Hostess improved in the same race, beaten 3.75l by Theory and indicating a potential return to better form. Again at the weights she looks held but not impossible if further improvement is forthcoming here.
Divine Will makes her sand debut. She was a decent winner over 800 in her first run but this will be only her 5th career run and breaks to date of 12, 26 and now 15 weeks imply that perhaps all has not been entirely well. There are indications in the breeding though that she could take to the surface and the drop back to 1000 may help. Clearly questions to answer but this is not a strong field so if fit and taking to the surface then she has a chance.
Its a weak race which increases the chances of an upset. Wisper The Wind and hail the Wind look the primary contestants with Pearla Gibson a strong possible if breaking on terms. But, I'm going to take a chance on the sand debutant in the hope that she is fit, she showed signs of having a little ability on the turf in her first couple of races and won't have to be a superstar to win this. Speculative but... DIVINE WILL x HAIL THE WIND x WISPER THE WIND
Beginning to tire big time so a quicker version for
RACE 8...
Sky Marshall won very well last week returning from a 30 week rest and assuming he is sharper for that run he should prove very hard to beat. Of the two Rugg runners, Brown rides Giant Strides. He is returning from 23 weeks off and takes a drop in trip but probably would prefer further. The other, Mr Patman, makes his sand debut. There is nothing in the breeding to confirm he will definitely take to the surface and he also returns from a rest, 26 weeks. That said, he has had some fair runs on the turf and if taking to the surface could be competitive. Woodland Trade was an impressive winner of his maiden on his first visit to the c but has been well beaten in his 2 runs since. Represents the Visser stable so a repeat of the maiden run, however unlikely, cannot be ruled out entirely. Tripartite (6l) and Baby Tjoklits (7.5l) were both well beaten by SM lto and it is hard to see the form being reversed unless SM suffers 2nd run after a rest syndrome or visserstabletitis. Var Light is rarely far off over 1000 but was 8l behind Tripartite the last time he attempted 1200. Wind At Your Back is also usually not far off and if at his best he would have a chance here but hard to see him competing with SM should the latter repeat that last run... SKY MARSHALL x TRIPARTITE x WIND AT YOUR BACK
Totally whacked now so very quickly for
RACE 9...
Smart Set is well drawn in 4 and has a chance if taking to the surface but the breeding does not indicate that will necessarily be the case and returns from a 15 week break. Disturbia has been consistent without ever threatening. drops in trip and gets the blinkers on, possibilities from the 1 box. Mean Like Mom was 7.5l back of Disturbia in the run behind Frisky Dancer. She is on 3rd run after a rest and the drop back in trip will help her chances but it would still seem that she has to find more from the widest draw of 14. River Mist was 5l behind FD and has a good draw in 2 but I am not convinced the drop in d is to her advantage. Azzy Wear is seemingly not the stable elect and though the breeding does indicate a fair chance she will perform on the sand, she returns from a 23 week rest and has a wide draw in 12. Mega Flash Drive was well beaten on c debut but with Muzi up for an in form yard then it is possible she will improve, a tough draw of 11 though makes her no more than a watching brief for me. Other watching briefs... For your Eyes Only was a 4.5l 4th on her only c run. She has had consecutive 10 and 12 week rests and joins the Visser stable from the Vaal sand, where she was well beaten in her last two runs. She has only one third in 10 d runs and is drawn 13 here. Triple Rhyme takes a drop in d but she was well beaten on c debut over 1400. Daddy's Luck has poor form overall but has a small place chance if others fail to deliver. Angel's Mystery, Miss Wildfire, Cash Crop, Bright Solitaire and Cloud Runner have all shown little and it would be a shock if any of them were to win. A poor maiden... DISTURBIA x MEAN LIKE MOM x AZZY WEAR
Win double... Sugar Ray x Sky Marshall (Treble... Imperial Coast)
E/W Patent... Cider Apple x Mr Vindaloo x Disturbia
And a very small semi-idiots e/w yankee on... Thunderstreak x Frisky Dancer x Divine Will x Azzy Wear
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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