Can one of these 3 year olds win the Met?

The Madji Wrote:

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> pirates Wrote:
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>

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> > The Madji Wrote:
> >
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>
> >

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> > > I will not necessary brass them, but will
> treat
> > > each race on merit (poor word choice) as I
> > always
> > > do. But I really do not know how this MR
> system
> > > works... a 79 rated beating 104's at level
> > > weights confuses my pip :S ...
> >
> >
> > rate them yourself dont concern yourself what
> the
> > official handicapers rate them...its only an
> > opinion but theirs has to be official mine and
> > yours dont
>
>
> Amen !!

Amen!! EG is way better than the 79(67).

The Madji Wrote:

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> pirates Wrote:
>

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>

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> > The Madji Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > I will not necessary brass them, but will
> treat
> > > each race on merit (poor word choice) as I
> > always
> > > do. But I really do not know how this MR
> system
> > > works... a 79 rated beating 104's at level
> > > weights confuses my pip :S ...
> >
> >
> > rate them yourself dont concern yourself what
> the
> > official handicapers rate them...its only an
> > opinion but theirs has to be official mine and
> > yours dont
>
>
> Amen !!


No matter what rating system one employs, horses like Elusive Gold will sometimes prove you wrong - he has obviously imporved big time since his last win (only 2 weeks ago :) but nobody could have realistically expected him to beat the more 'exposed' runners

As far as I know, there has not really been an opportunity for the current 3 yr olds to strut their stuff against the older horses - so I will reserve judgement until they do

SuperAce Wrote:

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> Frodo Wrote:
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>

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> > I'm with PeterD - the best horse on the day won
> -
> > CA on today's run will not see out the 2000;
> also
> > King of Pain showed that he has something to
> find
> > - had every chance but could not get to Ze
> Kaiser
> > who surely is not in the Met league :S For me
> the
> > horse to catch the eye in that race was Jet
> > Explorer - running on strongly at the end and
> sure
> > to improve over 2000.
> >
> > And just when Gavin van zyl must have been
> ready
> > to pack his bags on head back to KZN - up comes
> > Mohave Princess - so I still think that No
> Worries
> > could just put that disappointing effort last
> time
> > behind him and go close in the Met
> >
> > Also plenty has been written about this year's
> 3
> > yr old crop being much better than last year's
> -
> > but to be fair just like last year, they are
> > beating each other regularly - so could it be
> that
> > they are all slightly over-rated :S
> >
> > Just my opinion (tu)
>
>
> King of Pain was giving the winner
> 7kgs...........he's got nothing to find!!!! This
> run will bring him on gir QPLATE.


As was Jet Explorer :

The horse to watch out of ydays race is definitely Forrest Indigo from draw 14, when hitting the straight looked extrememly dangerous, but faded last 200m. I would not write out Forrest, this horse imo is same league at CA and Red Ray,etc.

I can't find the records so this is a serious question:
How many stables ,other than MdK have won the Met,in the last 30 years, with a 3yr old?

When Horse Chestnut won ,it was the first in decades............he then followed up(can't recall the name) .............how many others are there?

rob faux Wrote:

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> I can't find the records so this is a serious
> question:
> How many stables ,other than MdK have won the
> Met,in the last 30 years, with a 3yr old?
>
> When Horse Chestnut won ,it was the first in
> decades............he then followed up(can't
> recall the name) .............how many others are
> there?


1980
Sunshine Man

1981
Queen's Elect

1982
Foveros

1983
Arctic Cove

1984
Wolf Power

1985
Charles Fortune

1986
Wild West

1987
Model Man

1988
Mark Anthony

1989
Fearless Streaker

1990
Jungle Warrior

1991
Olympic Duel

1992
Divine Master

1993
Empress Club

1994
Pas De Quoi

1995
Surfing Home

1996
La Fabulous

1997
London News

1998
Imperious Sue

1999
Horse Chestnut

2000
Badger's Coast

2001
Bunter Barlow

2002
Polo Classic

2003
Angus

2004
Yard Arm

2005
Alastor

2006
Zebra Crossing

2007
Pocket Power

2008
Pocket Power

2009
Pocket Power

2010
River Jetez

2011
Past Master

2012
Igugu

2013
Martial Eagle

OK,I think I an right in saying then that only MdK has done it to date!..................You have to be brave to back any other stable's 3 yr olds on that stat!

i must say its nice to be discussing this subject compared to a few recent threads...rob you could be right and i will play devils advocate in that in the 3yos favour plenty of our better horses get exported before they reach their full potential as 4yos unlike 10 to 15 years ago and also not many 3yos have tried running in the met prefering to go derby route same day..in your favour is that the weights of the met have changed dramatically since dekock won it with his pair of 3yos....

rob faux Wrote:

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> OK,I think I an right in saying then that only MdK
> has done it to date!..................You have to
> be brave to back any other stable's 3 yr olds on
> that stat!

(tu)

pirates Wrote:

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> i must say its nice to be discussing this subject
> compared to a few recent threads...rob you could
> be right and i will play devils advocate in that
> in the 3yos favour plenty of our better horses get
> exported before they reach their full potential as
> 4yos unlike 10 to 15 years ago and also not many
> 3yos have tried running in the met prefering to go
> derby route same day..in your favour is that the
> weights of the met have changed dramatically since
> dekock won it with his pair of 3yos....

Pirates ,all these records eventually get broken and no doubt someone else will do it sooner or later...........I just don't want to be paying to predict who and when.
Have to say though,that I am not in love with any of the older horses yet.................maybe MomF , IF it takes another step upwards, before the Met?

I know that comparing race times across different races can be dangerous due to all the variables involved, but it is worth noting that the Guineas was run a half second faster than the Jet Master Stakes. Louvre set a decent pace in the latter race before fading, and once Strongman hit the front in the Guineas a similar good pace was set. It would be great if we had sectional times, but in the absence of that I think it's still not unreasonable to draw some comparisons. King of Pain is a top horse, and he carried 61kg, while the 3 yo's carried 58kg in the Guineas. WFA allowance currently at 1600m is 6kg. If we assume (yes, big assumption) that the two races are directly comparable, then these two races support the view that this year's 3yo colts are top class.
In fact, there is thus reason to believe that the first 4 home in the Guineas are as much as 6-10 lb better than King of Pain and Jet Explorer.
That would make the top 3yo's serious runners in the Queens Plate or Met.

PeterD Wrote:

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> I know that comparing race times across different
> races can be dangerous due to all the variables
> involved, but it is worth noting that the Guineas
> was run a half second faster than the Jet Master
> Stakes. Louvre set a decent pace in the latter
> race before fading, and once Strongman hit the
> front in the Guineas a similar good pace was set.
> It would be great if we had sectional times, but
> in the absence of that I think it's still not
> unreasonable to draw some comparisons. King of
> Pain is a top horse, and he carried 61kg, while
> the 3 yo's carried 58kg in the Guineas. WFA
> allowance currently at 1600m is 6kg. If we assume
> (yes, big assumption) that the two races are
> directly comparable, then these two races support
> the view that this year's 3yo colts are top
> class.
> In fact, there is thus reason to believe that the
> first 4 home in the Guineas are as much as 6-10 lb
> better than King of Pain and Jet Explorer.
> That would make the top 3yo's serious runners in
> the Queens Plate or Met.

Peter, I agree but it also proves what an incredible race Captain America ran in defeat. He was up with the pace all the way and only got caught right on the line by a horse who was very well suited to the solid pace and was able to conserve energy for a late dash!

Again, this is all conjecture as we need to see them taking on their elders first.

Roll on the QP and Met!