VAAL SAND - Thursday 12th SEPT

Speed ratings for main contenders with previous Vaal Sand form –

RACE 1 MDN 1800m
80…Ajuba 6/1
79…Ali 9/2
70…Evergreen 12/10
67…Fort Dixy 50/1
66…Nad’s Pride 16/1
65…Atlas Grove 25/1
??…Yellow Wood Tree 3/1
Going with the two STP runners as dbl floating bankers with the two MGA runners and the two WHT runners as the others in a 144 perm quartet.

RACE 2 COND-F 1450m
106…Formation 16/10
104…Rebel Queen 6/1
..97…Magic Smoke 14/10
..96…Tomorrow’s Miss 14/1
..92…Velvet Jar 20/1
..89…Go Indigo 12/1
Should Formation and Rebel Queen be back to anywhere near their best (as indicated by each ones last VS run) then this is a two horse race. The NB - Magic Smoke has not been performing to his best the last few runs and looks a beatable favourite.

RACE 3 MDN-F 1450m
75…Nondweni’s Filly 2/1
72…Velvet Finish 22/10
65…Keep My Promise 20/1
64…Monsoon Wind 40/1
63…Black Magic Women 50/1
60…Critical Mind 4/1
??…Nix Power 5/1
Very tricky to decide between the top two (Royal Quest line is bias to Velvet Finish).
Going with Nondweni’s Filly because of stables good sand record. Nix Power could be a live contender if taking to VS, whilst the ‘bridesmaid’ Critical Mind does not look any value at all.


RACE 4 PIN STAKES 1450m
108…Mr.Tobin 7/2
105…Right Beauty 6/1
105…Across the Ice 10/1
101…Panjo 18/10
101…Boy Oh Boy 25/1
..97…Spitfire Run 12/1
Mr. Tobin looks to be back ‘on song’ and will be too classy here.
Don’t think Panjo should be mistaken for Pylon…biggest danger likely to be Right Beauty.

RACE 5 PIN PLATE 1000m
100…Ikati 4/1
..96…Howhighcanufly 12/1
..93…Twighlight Elva 10/1
..91…Kinematic Countess 4/1
..91…Club Captain 7/1
..86…Cante Libre 16/1
..??…Larussa 7/1
The first question here is whether the draw is significant?
Last week the only 1000m was, by draw nos., 3-16-2-1… the first time for a while that those drawn low have featured so well (Can it really be due to ‘rolling’?).
Staying with the higher draws Ikati looks the one for the PA (6 x 2nds yet only 1 x win in last 18 months), along with Larussa and Kinematic Countess.

RACE 6 MR 73F 1800m
83…Mexican Glory 25/1
80…Madame Ming 4/1
77…Paris Wind 8/1
75…Scarletto 16/1
71…Olympic Goal 33/1
66…Empire of the Moon 5/2
??…E-Ticket 2/1
A weak looking field for this type of event which in turn enhances the possibilities for sand newcomer E-Ticket and in form Empire of the Moon (in spite of poorish previous sand runs). Paris Wind an inclusion for P6’s with Mexican Glory a quartet possibility.

RACE 7 MR 96 1000m
116…Cape Winter 10/1
116…Best Assured 14/1
108…Nice Stride 4/1
102…Hang Fire 4/1
101…Stavinsky 5/1
100…Maji Moto 8/1
Race 5 should confirm draw advantage, if any!
Going with high numbers (at this stage), and ratings, for PA and P6 which means Cape Winter and Nice Stride are the selections.

RACE 8 MR 68 1600m
95…Flaming Forge 3/1
91…King Scott 6/1
90…Estancia 7/1
89…Solar Energy 10/1
88…Sugar Ray 8/1
85…Banjo Bay 12/1
The pattern of ‘follow-up wins’ in handicaps are extremely rare, no matter how convincing the win was (Pigeon Power was last weeks example)…so out goes FF.
Think the 3-y-o Estancia can show further improvement and can beat King Scott.

Apologies to THH (and thanks as always (tu) ) for hijacking his thread but not got time to do full jottings as on the road all day tomorrow. Not even had time to do a full study either so please take that into account, but managed to do a very "waffly" overview...

RACE 1 - The Azzie contenders are likely to be the main players but no guarantees and with their restrictive prices, I'd rather play small and hope for big! I'll go with a small e/w on Nad's Pride and an R1 e/w idiot bet on Ninja Warrior and throw in Ajuba with the two Azzies for the trifecta and quartet. Selection based on hope! lol... NINJA WARRIOR x NAD'S PRIDE x AJUBA

RACE 2 - I think it will be fought out by three and though perhaps not favoured by the weights, I'll go with a small e/w on the one I consider best value... REBEL QUEEN x MAGIC SMOKE x FORMATION

RACE 3 - A shock wouldn't be a total surprise, with a couple who may improve on their first sand efforts and also some who on breeding have potential to be competitive. Celtic Circle and Keep My Promise are possibly worth a small interest. I was a little taken by Nondweni's Filly finish lto and if she can be closer and repeat then I like her chances, but I just have a nagging feeling Knock Knock is going to take to the surface and be too good... KNOCK KNOCK x NONDWENI'S FILLY x VELVET FINISH

RACE 4 - Panjo is a short price, perhaps deservedly, but he has a wide draw against some very decent opponents. Not convinced the drop in trip is ideal for Mr Tobin so I see the possible e/w value as being with Right Beauty who hopefully can bring an end to his all too frequent bridesmaid roles... RIGHT BEAUTY x MR TOBIN x PANJO

RACE 5 - May well be fought out by the two market keaders in Ikati and Kinematic Countess and both have sound claims imo. Don't completely discount the Louis horse Rooi Nooi who may be worthy of a small e/w interest. Howhighcanufly would be of greater interest if the low draw numbers are running well. The one though who I thought could represent the best e/w value is Twilight Elva who has some decent form, a very low weight and a potentially useful draw in 8... TWILIGHT ELVA x IKATI x KINEMATIC COUNTESS

RACE 6 - Mexican Glory is probably worth a small e/w especially with questions for some of the market leaders to answer. The breeding though makes me side with E-Ticket. Paris Wind may be good enough to take third despite the break... E-TICKET x MEXICAN GLORY x PARIS WIND

RACE 7 - Mr Vindaloo has done exceptionally well at Bingo and though this is tougher, there is no reason to suppose that he won't take to the Vaal surface as well and hopefully 9 will prove a useful draw. At the prices I think I'll stay loyal to him in a small e/w. Of the rest, I think Nice Stride is the biggest danger and Hang Fire is likely to be thereabouts with Stavinsky the probable quartet horse... MR VINDALOO x NICE STRIDE x HANG FIRE

RACE 8 - The one who I thought represented some e/w value here is Mr Scott and hopefully from his best draw in recent runs, he can get back to winning ways. Banjo Bay and Solar Energy seem to represent better value than others and will form trifectas and quartets around those three... KING SCOTT x BANJO BAY x SOLAR ENERGY

E/W PATENT... REBEL QUEEN x RIGHT BEAUTY x KING SCOTT

SEMI-IDIOTS E/W PATENT... KNOCK KNOCK x TWILIGHT ELVA x MR VINDALOO

IDIOTS E/W PATENT... NINJA WARRIOR x ROOI NOOI x MEXICAN GLORY

Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)

GL guys...all the best 2mrw

Thought I'd get in early as well Re-looked a few things in the bright light of day

R2: Everything points to Magic Smoke - some slight concern is that the stable has had a couple of 'mishaps' lately, however apparently Mystical Star got her tongue over the bit and Die Kat had to be re-shod, so excuses for both; also MS has yet to win over the trip and has not reproduced her MR (even ignoring the last run which was too far imo) in her recent runs (running to abt 92-94 imo) - but she holds main danger (according to the betting) Formation comfortably on the Rivulet formline; only real danger imo is Rebel Queen, who I have as running to 100 when just shaded by Tayba in her last run over 1200 at this track - so a repeat of that run would make her a factor (and therefore some value at 6/1) imo

R3: Looks a 2 horse race between the top two in the betting - both come off good last runs on the surface and hard to see both run out of the money (any comparisons in their runs against Royal Quest not worth much imo as RQ looks to have improved a lot in her last start) - Critical Mind the unkown factor on the surface (has run very poorly here before when starting out her career, but may now have strengthened up); Keep My Promise has improved - held by Velvet Finish but could place

R4: Panjo has a much tougher task here imo and Mr Tobin seems to have lost his early speed on the surface, so the trip could be on the sharp side - Right Beauty looks ideally suited to the trip and has been running consistently, so is my first choice and should not miss the first 3 imo; Spitfire Run has not run on the sand in quite a while, has placed here before, so could upset from the front and Newton Power is another who could surprise imo

R5: As mentioned by THH and Englander, the draw could prove decisive and hard to know where the advantage (if any) would lie - looked more fair in the one race over 1000 last week, so I'm going to presume that there won't be any bias; Kinematic Countess has 3 wins and 4 places from 9 runs over this trip, is well in at the weights and is my clear first choice. Not much between Howhighcanufly, Ikati, Club Captain and Twilight Elva imo, so all of those must have place credentials; for a real roughie I'm looking at Tobe's Lass who is coming back down in trip and class and has run close to H in May over this trip. High on Rebellion the unknown quantity

R6: Toughest race on the card imo; Empire of the Moon has failed in her previous run on the surface, so hard to know how she will go; E-Ticket and Magic Jet try the surface and both could be right there, or not feature at all; best value for me is Olympic Goal, who on collateral form through Olympic Spring should have the beating of Madame Ming - I'm going wide

R7: Another tough race where the betting has the 3 Naidoo runners at the bottom of the boards - however any one of the 3 may surprise; also lots of betting support for Winter's Song makes this a real nightmare where the new no-couplings P6 rule is really going to hurt the budget of those that want to partake in that bet; for the PA I think perhaps Hang Fire, Nice Stride, Stavinsky and Maji Moto should prove enough.

R8: With Flaming Force out, one would need to closely at the first race to try to gauge the relative strength of the recent maiden winners Banjo Bay and Solar Energy; I'm not really convinced that either of those wins were good enough to feature here and my preference at the moment is for Estancia, who really only got going over the 1450 last time when the race was all over, so should enjoy the step up in trip; however as a young 3 yr old he is giving weight to battle-hardened 5 yr old King Scott who has some fair recent from over these sort of trips, so must be included as a back-up ot E imo; London Irish has yet to place at this track in 3 tries and hard to find a reason why he should suddenly take a liking to it now and not much else catch my eye

Enjoy (tu)

Winning Form & Magic Tips Best Bets - Vaal Sand

Thank you THH and E. FOOD FOR THOUGHT indeed

Study hard Clan

Formation my best bet on the card.

Code Red could be the upset - Definite inclusion for places, but likely winner must be Mr Tobin

Ikati has often disappointed - My liking is Canta Libre. Will sing that Neil Diamond song at karaoke in my local tonite

Ciao

No need to study now Frodo the master has spoken (tu)

Thanks to English and THH AS WELL (tu)

hibernia Wrote:

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> No need to study now Frodo the master has spoken
> (tu)
>
> Thanks to English and THH AS WELL (tu)


()()....(tu)(tu)

R6

Madame Ming....

R7
Nice Stride

CAPE TOWN PICK 6 PAYOUT R353 660. 10(tu)(tu)(tu)

Race 4 leg 1:[ 2 , 3 , 7 , 9 , 11 , 13 ]

Race 5 leg 2:[ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 9]

Race 6 leg 3 :[ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 7]

Race 7 leg 4:[ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 8 , 6 , 9]

Race 8 leg 5:[ 1 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 13]

Race 9 leg 6:[ 1 , 2 , 7 , 8 , 10, 11 , 12 , 13]

(tu)(tu)WHO'S THE PICK 6 KING(tu)(tu)

Suleman Wrote:

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> CAPE TOWN PICK 6 PAYOUT R353 660. 10(tu)(tu)(tu)
>
> Race 4 leg 1:[ 2 , 3 , 7 , 9 , 11 , 13 ]
>
> Race 5 leg 2:[ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 9]
>
> Race 6 leg 3 :[ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 6 , 7]
>
> Race 7 leg 4:[ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 8 , 6 , 9]
>
> Race 8 leg 5:[ 1 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11
> , 13]
>
> Race 9 leg 6:[ 1 , 2 , 7 , 8 , 10, 11 , 12 , 13]
>
> (tu)(tu)WHO'S THE PICK 6 KING(tu)(tu)


Your R184 320 ::::operm a little ridiculous:S here suleman , NO KING