Race 1...
Not as competitive as the numbers suggest. Lord Buffhead got his head back in front last time out but has to step up on is previous efforts at this track to get involved. Depden (IRE) is still a maiden after 9 runs but has claims on his best form and has run well at this track. Kwanto is still lightly raced after just 11 runs and it will be no surpise to see an improved effort now under the care of Mick Appleby. She showed up well for a long way here last time out over 7f and could improve again dropped to the minimum trip. Code Six (IRE) has put up her 2 best performances at this track and could be dangerous if handed a soft lead. Sarah Berry is one of the few winners in the field and comes into this on the back of a 3rd last time out. She is sure to be near the head of market and one of the more likely types if handling the surface. Beach Rhythm (USA) is lightly raced for his age and is fitted with a visor on the return to the scene of his best run. There is little between him and Sarah Berry on a line through Victorian Number. A tricky race to call but we think that Beach Rhythmn and Depden make the most appeal with slight preference for Depden who is our selection.
Race 2...
By The Light (IRE) is improving with each run and coming into this on the back of a 4th at Beverley. He is one of the more likelier types if taking to the surface. He is by Verglas who is 2/12 over c+d and 8/87 overall at the track. Volodina (IRE) finished runner up over c+d last time out and claims if able to build on that. Evacusafe Lady has shown enough in her races she up to landing a race of this nature. She has every chance if taking to the surface. Cabaan (IRE) has showed very little in 4 runs to date but could improve for a switch to the surface. He is by Acclamation who has a decent record at the track with his progeny and with the aid of cheek pieces it would be no surprise to see an improved effort. Tez shaped with promise on debut and although he has failed to back that up in 2 subsequent runs he could be a different proposition now handicapping. He is by Exceed and Excel who has a 15% s/r at the track with his progeny. Madame Mirasol (IRE) has shown very little in 3 sprint maidens and will need to step up on handicap debut to get involved here. She is by Sleeping Indian who has a 19% s/r at the track. Kevin Ryan is 4/14 with horses making their handicap debuts at Southwell in the past 5 years for a 28% s/r. Another tricky puzzle to solve with several capable of taking steps forward. By The Light makes obvious appeal but there’s no guarantee he will take to the surface, Madame Mirasol is sure to improve but we feel the value in the race lies with Cabaan who is our e/w selection.
Race 3...
Doncaster Rover (IRE) sets the standard on form but is becoming exposed. Red Biba (IRE) has shown nothing in 2 runs and will need to take a huge step forward on her first start for Alan McCabe. Black Vale (IRE) is dropped in trip after disappointing last time out here over 7f. He finished behind Volodina who runs in the previous run and a decent showing by him may give the form a stronger look. James Tate has only sent 4 maiden runners to Southwell in the past 5 yrs and 2 of them have won. Zal Zilhom (IRE) has shown enough ability in his 2 runs to win a race of this nature. He is a clear pick on form and providing he handles the surface he should win this. This looks a battle between Black Vale and Zal Zilhom with preference for the latter who is our selection.
Race4...
Akeed Dubawi is improving with each run and makes plenty of appeal. He is by the great Dubawi who’s reputation as the Sire King of Southwell is well known. He is fitted with cheek pieces for his handicap debut in the hope of eking out some improvement. William Haggis has a 37% s/r with runners at the track in the past 5 years. Georgian Firebrand and Heroes Welcome (IRE) both look to be up against it and are ruled out. China Creek (IRE) made a pleasing debut at Doncaster finishing 2nd in a race that has worked out very well. She has disappointed on both starts since both over 10f. She is dropped back in trip for her handicap debut which looks to be a positive. Her sire Street Cry is an equally effective fibresand sire as Dubawi with a 26.67% s/r overall and 32.26% over c+d. Reminisce (IRE) also made a pleasing debut finishing runner up to his smart stablemate String Theory. He has failed to back that up in 2 subsequent runs and has a bit to prove. The yard was going through a lean time though and he could be sparked into life with a switch to the sand. His sire Oasis Dream is one of the better sires in producing progeny that handle the sand with a 13% s/r. This looks to be a straight fight between Akeed Dubawi and China Creek who both have obvious claims. The market will guide to the more fancied of the 2 but we feel that China Creek makes the most appeal and is our selection.
Race5..
Slip Of The Tongue has won his last 3 including over course and distance which has seen his mark go from 59 to 80. He is obviously in good heart but this is tougher and he will need to progress again to keep up his winning streak. Wadaa (USA) finally built on the promise shown in maidens to get off the mark last time out at Carlisle. The form of her win is working out well and a 5lb rise doesn’t look too harsh. She is by Dynaformer who is 7/17 at the track so the surface could suit. Proud Times (USA) has done his best running around here with 2 wins and a 4th from 4 starts. He is 9lb higher than his last win 2 runs back over c+d but he is still well treated on his very best form and cannot be ruled out back on this surface. Picalily got off the mark last time out, here over 12f. She is up 9lb for the win but she is going the right way and with the riders claim taken into account she has to go on the shortlist. Cosimo De Medici is a course winner and on a winning mark. Jacobs Son has yet to run a bad race here and could be the value in the race on just his 3rd start for Mick Appleby. He is well treated on his best form and not completely ruled out. A cracking race in prospect with several in form horses going head to head and some course specialists thrown into the mix makes it all the more intriguing. Slip Of The Tongue is clearly thriving but face his toughest test. Wadaa is dangerous now she has got her head in front as is Picalily who lurks dangerously at the foot of the weights. We feel that Jacobs Son offers some real e/w value in the race and Wadaa looks to be the one to beat and Wadaa is our selection.
Race 6..
A big field, low grade sprint that isn’t as competitive as the numbers suggest. Nonaynever is up 5lb for his course and distance win last time out his first win in 18 starts. He should confirm form with the course specialist Elusive Warrior (USA) who looks no nearer to ending his long losing run despite being thrown in at the weights. Sudden Wish (IRE) was just touched off last time out on her first start for Gary Moore and looks to hold every chance here if taking to the sand. Viennese Verse was well supported last time out on handicap debut and ran better than his finishing place suggested. He is still lightly raced and open to improvement. He is by Byron who is 10/69 at the track. Hidden Asset is still lightly raced after just the 5 runs and comes into this on the back of a decent effort here over a mile in a warm race for the grade. Lilly White (USA) wasn’t beaten far last time out at Yarmouth on her seasonal reappearance and her debut for John Butler. She is by Speightstown who is 5/13 at the track and she is one to consider. Coach Montana (IRE) is an erratic performer but is one to consider if putting his best foot forward. He comes into this on the back of a decent run last time out. He is making his fibresand debut from the dreaded stall 1 but being by Proud Citizen he could improve for the sand. Another tricky puzzle for punters to solve. Nonaynever has to go on the list as does Sudden Wish who both make plenty of appeal. We think the 2 to concentrate on though are Lilly Rules and Hidden Asset, we shall dutch them. The most likely to win though is Lilly White and she is our selection.
Race7..
Apache Rising is the obvious starting point as a course specialist. He has won 4 of his 5 starts at the track and is sire to make a bold bid to make it 5/6. Emperatriz found only the thriving Imaginary World too god last time out over course and distance and has every chance if able to build on that run. Mick Dundee (IRE) has been gelded since landing a couple of sellers for John Hills. He is having his 1st start for his new yard under an inexperienced jockey and the market will be the best guide to his chances. Birdy Boy (USA) is a course and distance winner that comes into this badly out of form. He is better on the AW than turf though and did show signs he was about to hit form on his run behind Rocket Ronnie. Not a race we would get involved in betting wise but we think that this is between Birdy Boy, Emperatriz and Apache Rising with preference for Birdy Boy who is our token selection..
From Glenn,race Analyst.
I make Madame Mirasol a bet and may do some doubles and trebles...
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Topic Author
