SIDDHARTH - TURFF Sat 17th Aug

Just to give some credence to what Frodo said above and I guess a little bit of vindication for Loopy (If this is indeed what he had done). In the US a major part of pre race information are these three stats.

1) Trainers % of winners with first timers
2) Sire's winning % with first timers
3) Sire's winning % of first timers over the distance

Perhaps armed with these stats he could have made some sort of case for the horse? (coupled with the betting support?)

I would have struggled to make a first timer a good thing but that doesn't mean other people couldn't have, armed with enough data of previous trainer/sire records?

Interesting debate none the less.

Loopy Logic Wrote:

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> rob faux Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Loopy ,I have no doubt that you did ......but
> > based on 0 runs it had to be a guess?
> > If you added a comment to your ratings that
> > suggested inclusion,with reasons(well bred,
> watch
> > the betting etc. etc.) that's fine
> ...........but
> > ratings that are not based on data???
>
> Ratings are ONLY based on data Rob, absolutely
> NOTHING else... I do not believe in insider info
> and never will, they are simply "opinions" of
> trainers,
>
> Read the "ratings explained" page on the website,
> I have for a very long time now stated on ABC that
> form is not the only means of data.

Loopy so trainers info is simply an opinion but your selections not based on betting , having never run , maybe breeding is therefore only
an opinion on the race:S

so, are you ascribing the 2.5 days' betting movement on the unraced horse to these stats?

mr hawaii Wrote:

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> You could NEVER have made that first timer a good
> thing considering the form of LESLEY STRONG -
> www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResult.a
> spx?rn=2013-07TN1244,ZA&hs=LESLEY+STRONG
> you would have been following betting moves only

So Mr Hawaii did you think Lesley Strong from a 15 draw at the Turffontein 1400 standside carrying 4 kg more than ever carried before and not running a place previously at Turffontein standside was a good thing?

Guys we all have our own means if analizing data and assigning a "rating" to each positive aspect as well as negative aspect thereof. My ratings could very well differ in many aspects to others, we are All students of the game and each to their own...

Although obviously not an exact sience, one can venture a guess on how a first timer might perform by things like trainer, jock, draw, breeding, sale price, owners, betting etc.

This horse, for instance: owner trainer jock combo has a record of three wins, two places - for five runs!
www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgOwnerHist...r+Ridge+Syndicate|ZA

Not too be ignored when putting together a punt.

Loopy Logic Wrote:

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> mr hawaii Wrote:
>

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>

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> > You could NEVER have made that first timer a
> good
> > thing considering the form of LESLEY STRONG -
> >
> www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResult.a
>
> > spx?rn=2013-07TN1244,ZA&hs=LESLEY+STRONG
> > you would have been following betting moves
> only
>
> So Mr Hawaii did you think Lesley Strong from a 15
> draw at the Turffontein 1400 standside carrying 4
> kg more than ever carried before and not running a
> place previously at Turffontein standside was a
> good thing?
>
> Guys we all have our own means if analizing data
> and assigning a "rating" to each positive aspect
> as well as negative aspect thereof. My ratings
> could very well differ in many aspects to others,
> we are All students of the game and each to their
> own...


similarly Loopy you thought the horse that had never raced before was a good thing. of the runners with exposed form LS was a good thing and the 4kg extra was irrelevant in this case

vis Wrote:

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> Although obviously not an exact sience, one can
> venture a guess on how a first timer might perform
> by things like trainer, jock, draw, breeding, sale
> price, owners, betting etc.
>
> This horse, for instance: owner trainer jock combo
> has a record of three wins, two places - for five
> runs!
> www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgOwnerHist.as
> px?ho=Tiger+Ridge+Syndicate|ZA
>
> Not too be ignored when putting together a punt.


Yes one can 'venture a guess' and taking into the account the betting support, it could never be ignored; the problem I think that some may have with Loopy is that he uses this 'guess work' to produce a rating for a first timer, which is imo difficult to compare with actual 'ratings' produced by horses in races; if one looks at the race in question, again I would find it impossible to compare the ratings produced by Leslie Strong (in actual races) with the 'ratings' ascribed to Siddharth just because of the 'owner/trainer/jock combo' stats. :S

So imo to suggest that Siddarth was the obvious 'top choice' on 'ratings' is a bit over the top

Frodo I did not suggest It's "the top choice" but My ratings It did come tops 9 points vs 5 points 2nd choice based on My ratings. If This was an exact Science we would not need odds and everyone would have the winner every Time before the off and the Racing industry would be redundant and unexciting.

I also did not suggest It is "guess work" since It is data available To All, soms Just may not put This data To high regard and only look st form when making there choices,

Where is SULEMAN and FLASH HARRY , would love to get their opinion

So it was not your 'top choice', but it did 'come out tops' in your ratings?

Don't worry - I'm just pulling your leg - and I do respect the effort you put in (tu) - let's just agree to disagree on the 'ratings'

It was My Top choice but not everyone's top choice...

I came out top in My ratings... But then My ratings are not the Same as other's train of thoughts.

we are All students of the game..and in Turf17Aug Race8#1 My ratings came up tops....now to strive to make that every race...we All gain from our collective attempts to find the winner (tu)

Loopy Logic Wrote:

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> mr hawaii Wrote:
>

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>

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> > You could NEVER have made that first timer a
> good
> > thing considering the form of LESLEY STRONG -
> >
> www.formgrids.com/subscriber/fgRaceResult.a
>
> > spx?rn=2013-07TN1244,ZA&hs=LESLEY+STRONG
> > you would have been following betting moves
> only
>
> So Mr Hawaii did you think Lesley Strong from a 15
> draw at the Turffontein 1400 standside carrying 4
> kg more than ever carried before and not running a
> place previously at Turffontein standside was a
> good thing?
>
> Guys we all have our own means if analizing data
> and assigning a "rating" to each positive aspect
> as well as negative aspect thereof. My ratings
> could very well differ in many aspects to others,
> we are All students of the game and each to their
> own...

If you watch that race you will see that LS would have won had it not been for some interference from the winner - I look at form and breeding but you could never have said the FT had a winning chance just because it was a De Kock horse - Take a look at the formgrids for LS run to principled man and then tell me you would rather go with a FT (without taking betting support into account) I feel strongly that the likes of Duly Ordained, P Man Roman Express etc will win many races this year.