July Log 28/5/13

As I see it (and open to be proved wrong of course), the 'problem' horses here are Tellina and Love Struck; LS was beaten 5 lengths by Cape Town Noir in the Cape Guineas, and there is nothing between T and LS on the SA Classic run; then Tellina was comfortably beaten by Wyllie Hall, Gothic and Wild One in the SA Derby - so that probably is why WH, G and WO are judged 'good enough' to be in the Top 20.

And it is difficult to judge the 3 yr olds against the older horses as they have not met each other (as far as I'm aware); but then the panel should be led by official MR surely? So imo the only 3 yr olds that should be in the Top 20 AT THIS STAGE, are COTT, CTN and Vercingetorix.

So let's see what happens on Saturday in the Daily News - imo CTN (and therefore V) are lengths better than T, LS, etc - but we shall see.

E-Jet on the borderline. Has been claimed into 66/1. WOS still has a handsome 176/1 available.

Beach Beauty has been scratched

Pity

@ Mr Drier.

Dear Sir, I think you have made a mistake but I wish the Beauty every success in the Garden Province. Yours truly.

Mac Wrote:

---

> @ Mr Drier.
>
> Dear Sir, I think you have made a mistake but I
> wish the Beauty every success in the Garden
> Province. Yours truly.


I actually think it was a right decision, the horse doesn't see the distance and is giving weight to top 3ys plus has to beat h54....

Have now done Jet Explorer (tu)

LIANCOURT ROCK also scratched

Mac we are on same wavelength

well done to mr drier and connections ,59.5 kg over 2200m for a small mare giving away chunks of weight is the right decision to take her out....you do whats best for the horse not the owners trainers or breeders involved....the met is a conditions race where she will be far better suited to...

Pity about Beach Beauty, but I have so much respect for Mr. Drier that questioning his decision would be questioning my sanity.

About a month to go (I write this on the Friday before the Daily News) and it would be interesting to look back at this thread after the running of the 2013 Vodacom July. Looking at the top ones in the betting, I think the following are valid observations:

Cherry on the Top (5/1) - Probably the one that looks a worthy favorite and not a bad price imo - if she wins the Woolavington tomorrow will probably shorten - if she does not win, she could still miss the July?

Pomodoro (8/1) - Looking in good shape - currently no. 1 on the July log but back to back wins in the July not that common ?

Vercingetorix (8/1) - As of today, not certain to stay - could shorten drastically if he manages to win the Daily News

Yorker (10/1) - Has not been proven in this class and also yet to prove he stays, but again if he wins the Daily News, will shorten a lot in the betting

Cape Town Noir (11/1) - Has at least won over 2000, but as with V and Y, may shorten if he wins the Daily News, but the stable is publically on record that even if he wins the DN, he may not run in the July.

Tellina (18/1) - Has proven that he stays - but may be slightly below V and CTN in class - another who needs to show that he has what it takes in the DN tomorrow

Hill Fifty Four (20/1) - One of only 2 4yr olds in the top 7 of the betting at this stage - currently no. 2 on the July Log, only a slight stamina doubt, but looks to have a lot going for him and does look good value to me at 20/1

Run For It (20/1) - Has often been disappointing, however very encouraging run in the Drill Hall (less than a length behind H54) after being gelded; still not in the Top 20 of the July log, but could be a big runner imo if he does get a run - fair value at the price imo

Jet Explorer (25/1) - Impressive winner of the 1900 - but it has been many years since that specific double (1900/July) has succeeded.

Sanshaawes (30/1) - Came close to CTN in the Cape Derby, has changed stables since and seemingly not nominated in any prep race - also currently out of the top 30 on hte July log - could be an unlikely runner, so these odds seem strange at this stage.

Those are curremtly the top 10 in the betting; the top 10 on the current July log also include Heavy Metal (not bad value at 33/1 ?), Jackson (doubtful starter), Thunder Dance (current price of 150/1 suggests she may be a doubtful starter as well), Shogunnar (50/1 and an entry the Jubilee with Thunder Dance) and Tribal Dance (66/1 after a slightly disappointing run - under top weight however - in the 1900)

Still a lot of other 'hopefuls' at this stage include Master Plan, E-Jet, Seal, Wyllie Hall, Wagner, etc etc.

So whice one is your 'early' choice and why?