punters shortfall Where lies our folly?

the art of puntimg (consistently making a profit) and knowing a little about horses are separate skills.whilst we might know a little about the latter its the former that needs our attention.
some of us must surely rank the worst in this field.any help.

Lots have been written on this site on punting strategies; personally I think one of the main shortfalls (definitely has happened to me) is GREED - rather take those single bets one by one, combining them in multiples look so tempting, but miss one and you're in trouble

greed would be right there.but there's more to it.I suppose the problem. is individualistic yet common.

Mine is discipline. By that I mean not sticking to strategies that I know work and always wanting to try something new.

betting when you can't afford to lose can be the most painful exercise....talking from experience

Here is my few cents on the subject:

Gambling on horse racing is different to most other forms. With the latter, everyone has the same chance really. With horse racing, you not only playing against the take-out, but also the skill and/or information of others. This means the player is not only at the mercy of take-out and luck, but also insiders and professionals.

The bottom line is that if you are a casual player, when you do win it's just not enough within your own playing size. If you stray out of your zone, for example you decide to play the P6 or quartets after years of PA's or whatever, you get nailed by those "experts" who are playing their particular game.

Also, the minute you start playing for fun, without having looked out for the pitfalls, you open yourself to missing horses you would have played, being late to play bets you would have, too little time to get the last legs of P6's right, forgetting horses that are running, not noticing changes in trip or race type or the dozens of possibles and the 1000's of permutations of these conditions...basically racing punishes mistakes far harder than rewarding the hits.

The worst is we know when we've dropped the ball, and it really aggravates us. Then we fail to prepare again, and get aggravated...again. The winners are those who overcome this. It's hard though, like losing weight or getting fit, we all know what we have to do...we just plan to do it next week.

Jack Dash Wrote:

---

> Here is my few cents on the subject:
>
> Gambling on horse racing is different to most
> other forms. With the latter, everyone has the
> same chance really. With horse racing, you not
> only playing against the take-out, but also the
> skill and/or information of others. This means
> the player is not only at the mercy of take-out
> and luck, but also insiders and professionals.
>
> The bottom line is that if you are a casual
> player, when you do win it's just not enough
> within your own playing size. If you stray out of
> your zone, for example you decide to play the P6
> or quartets after years of PA's or whatever, you
> get nailed by those "experts" who are playing
> their particular game.
>
> Also, the minute you start playing for fun,
> without having looked out for the pitfalls, you
> open yourself to missing horses you would have
> played, being late to play bets you would have,
> too little time to get the last legs of P6's
> right, forgetting horses that are running, not
> noticing changes in trip or race type or the
> dozens of possibles and the 1000's of permutations
> of these conditions...basically racing punishes
> mistakes far harder than rewarding the hits.
>
> The worst is we know when we've dropped the ball,
> and it really aggravates us. Then we fail to
> prepare again, and get aggravated...again. The
> winners are those who overcome this. It's hard
> though, like losing weight or getting fit, we all
> know what we have to do...we just plan to do it
> next week.


Very well put (tu)

You really said it all JD:X
And i keep on doing it over and over again

For me a punting strategy is a set of two other sub strategies: 1) the selection strategy - whom are you going to back; and 2) the money management strategy - how much money will you back.

Point 2 is the single most important aspect in punting as even my granny can pick a winner. I'm against the grain on this one with most clansmen - you do NOT bet as much on an outsider as if it was an odds-on favourite, in fact you do the opposite. The amount of money staked MUST BE commensurate with its risk. So how do you do this for those who may not know? Make a long term policy of how much you want to win per event - horses, football, or whatever after considering your affordability of a punt if its price were expensive. For example, for the next year I want to win R1000 per event. Then ask yourself if the price of a certain event is say 4/10 can I afford a R2500 punt. If not, then reduce your policy until you can afford the size of a big punt. Then make your subsequent selections based on whatever. Then the size of your stake is equal to your policy divided by its price. I swear you will be pleasantly surprised but you must keep to your policy say for at least a year before review. Forget about the crap that has been written in books.

One other thing, you need to detect "perceived value". Practice pricing up yourself to a 100% book and then in the order of the bookies' prices compare the shortest price of a result to your price for that result. If it is more expensive then compare the next shortest price and so on until you identify "perceived value" for that result.

JD...nicely said....(tu)
Frodo...you have a level head....(tu)