AN IDIOT PREVIEWS THE GOLD CUP

Let me start off by marking the territory :

What you are going to read hereunder is not meant to be taken very seriously. It’s what I like to call The Gold Cup For Dummies. Because when it comes to punting horses (or maybe any punting at all!) I most certainly qualify for the description of a Dummy.

So if you have been poring over the Gold Cup field in search of that elusive winner spend a couple of light hearted moments reading this.

First of all – I don’t like favourites. There’s no romance in backing the most popular horse in the field. But there’s an awful lot of fun being the ONLY person shouting home the 20/1 shot whilst all around you look on with a mixture on envy and naked resentment.

Second – Fancy your chances against 19 opponents? You’re optimistic! My bookmaker used to say : “Let them guess”. And should have added in brackets “....because I get the money for every time they guess wrong”.

Third – Are you REALLY going to use the July as a formline? That’s trusting! Or would delusional be a better description seeing pundits are still trying to do the usual after-the-event-justification of that result. Write it off as ‘one to keep bookmakers solvent’ and move on.

Fourth – I have two words for this field. SOUP and MEAT. It’s one of those airy fairy races where many runners have flattered only to deceive. But at least that gives you a shout with your favourite 40/1 shot. The same one which has steadily emptied your access bond over the years and may now be ready to refund you.

Fifth – This is a race where the ‘K Factor’ might come into play. (For the uninitiated this is a Cape racing theory which used to caution punters who were contemplating backing any strongly fancied horses from the following yards : Kannemeyer, Kotzen & Kruyer). When they send out favourites it's often Armageddon for punters.

So how might you find a winner in this race? Well – certain rules DO still apply unless you are completely averse to anything representing form.

DON’T back top weights – At Weight For Age a pound ( that’s ,5Kg for those of you under the age of 40 and ,yes, I know you can do the conversion on your iPhone ) over this distance equates to about 1,5 lengths so a kilo can easily reverse a 3 length advantage if they have met before.

DON’T wade into horses drawn very wide – If they ever manage to get across (which not many do) they have usually used up their finish on the first lap.

DON’T back horses untried or unproven over any distance less than 2800 metres. If they don’t stay they don’t stay so it’s foolish to spend money finding that out.

CONSIDER Port Elizabeth horses. They have done well over the years in this race and I have done well with them. Why? Because they seem to run all races in PE as if they are about to miss their train home. So if they stay 3600m in PE then the horribly unfair Greyville track should be a doddle.

REMEMBER – Despite the hype this is not really a stayer’s race. It is a race for ‘not quite good enough’ horses who are far too slow to win a July. But because they plod with such conviction their trainers think they are ‘staying’. They’re actually not if you have observed the pedestrian pace at which this race is usually run! And don’t think they aren’t all very grateful that Greyville only requires a finishing burst of about 450 m as that’s already more than most of them are capable of.

So who are these about-to-be-superstars?

Seal – Bad draw. Big weight. Should battle to beat In Writing on last run.

Ilsanpietro – Poor Draw. On line through Seal should struggle.

Blake – Good draw. Fair weight. But with the K factor AND Karl Neisius on a favourite this should be odds on to get beaten.

Sage Throne – Scott winning the Gold Cup? I’ll need another toke to assist my imagination.

Top Seller – Untried over the distance so why spend money to discover he doesn’t stay?

In Writing – Has form and price to win this. But probably won’t.

Captain’s Wild – Failed last time but 3kg less to carry.

Gorongosa – Looked tailor made for this race but drifting like a barge so must have fleas. Somebody knows something as even the DeKock slaves are avoiding so I’m not buying.

Aslan – Distance seems just a touch too far.

Princess Of light – At 20/1 makes small appeal but Gorongosa has historically had the wood on her.

Soul Master – Will a horse out of a Comic Blush mare get 2 miles. That would be a WOW! But it probably won’t.

Vettel – Decent draw. Decent weight. But will it get the distance ? ( At this point the choir normally breaks into : “DeKock will make it stay!” ). Yeah, right.

Croc Valley : I don’t trust Western Winter beyond 1800m.

Heyouneverknow – Decent draw. Decent weight. Decent form even beyond tomorrow’s distance. 22/1! My kind of bet. I tried but got knocked back. So see if you can get on if you like this suicide option. I couldn't.

Sun City – Even Glen Hatt cannot bring this one home. Can he?

Thanks John – I guess a travel companion for Princess Of Light. If I were the owners I would tell the trainer to run it only he if HE pays the noms.

Kolkata – Brings in the Seal form again. But we all learned long ago that Strydom does not often win on horses that he has tried on previously and failed on.

Golden Parachute – Field filler. See Jeppe’s Reef.

Campo De Santana – This is the one that led me to Heyouneverknow. And then caused the brain fart that led me to actually like the Spies runner. Muppet.

Jeppe’s Reef – If this is representative of the strength of the Bass yard at present then it is surely overdue for a clean out and re-stock. Er.....hello Marsh......I found a couple of yearlings........etc.

One amongst this largely sorry bunch will have its 15 minutes of fame tomorrow. There is clearly no Yeats here but plenty for the cat food division to get excited about.

The selfsame lemmings that lined up to back Jackson & the Crusaders will no doubt be scrabbling to recover their losses.

Enjoy the race. Hope your R40k quartet arrives. But I’ll be on my way to Newlands when this bunch are wheezing their way around Greyville.

I like the " Idiots Preview " and share the exact same thoughts on the runners. Will be looking for value and although the drift on Gorongosa I will exact with Heyyouneverknow and add In Writing for the trifecta.

Aslan – Distance seems just a touch too far.

Except it was a touch further for the rest of the runners last year (

Magi Wrote:

---

> Aslan – Distance seems just a touch too far.
>
> Except it was a touch further for the rest of the
> runners last year (


thus the title of the thread lol

Garrick, spot on.... the Gold Cup in more years has had some shock results that are rather left field.....and you summed it up perfectly......
In the early 90's the winner Sciantiso got loose on the way to the course at 2am on the morning of the race. His groom tried to get him to drink from a farm dam on the side of the road, he jumped into the dam and waided for 2 hours in the water while the groom and others were trying to catch him....he won the race on his coconut....:S

Muhtiman Wrote:

---

> Garrick, spot on.... the Gold Cup in more years
> has had some shock results that are rather left
> field.....and you summed it up perfectly......
> In the early 90's the winner Sciantiso got loose
> on the way to the course at 2am on the morning of
> the race. His groom tried to get him to drink from
> a farm dam on the side of the road, he jumped into
> the dam and waided for 2 hours in the water while
> the groom and others were trying to catch
> him....he won the race on his coconut....:S

Whatever dope they used.... they were well ahead of the pack {bow scrape grovel}..Huge respect !!

I like this preview! Well done boet!

Very nice Garrick(tu), you should do more of these.

if antelme can win july, then scott can win gold cup. stick to the rugby rather (td)

Good comparison Flash! Even Arthur Miller {R.I.P} won the Gold Cup with Stateway from P.E.
Anythings possible in this field, maybe Shannon Devoy to cause a HUGE blowout?Ha Ha that will be the day!Beginniong to think like an idiot now.

I feel that we in South Africa do not have enough staying races...and therefore insufficient opportunities for trainers/jockeys to try tactics...therefore the discrepancies between runs.
I enjoy being an idiot:D
Great that you took the time to make this preview Garrick(tu)

Nice one Garrick. At last a read of form that defines the absurdity of actually trying to gain a premise or two from the last runs of the collection of soup meat mules.

What I particularly like is your idiot reference. Most idiots don't get they idiots cause they are in fact idiots, and the first man to claim he is the idiot, is in fact the only one not an idiot.

One is allowed to be a temporary idiot like I used to be(evidenced by gambling habits), but when you have waded through the decaying stink of formlines, bookies, incompetency, crookery and mafia hood, to have left it feels like a naked swim in a warm tropical sea - accompanied by a bikini clad sweetheart that oozes honesty, integrity and perky breasts - to be free of the shackles and darkness of horse racing.

I like this type if race review