Be a more PROFITABLE PUNTER.....STATS and TIPS

PeterD Wrote:

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> A bet is "Value" when the probability of success
> is greater than the odds on offer. (eg if you can
> get better than even money on the flip of a fair
> coin).
> The tricky part is finding value before the event.
> You need to have better insight than the
> odds-maker who sets up the intial prices, or else
> you need the weight of popular money to move the
> odds to the point where you perceive value.
> Any individual bet, or series of bets, can lose
> even if they are value bets. Similarly, a punter
> can get lucky with winning bets even when they are
> poor value. However, in the long term, finding
> value is the only possible long term winning
> strategy. (If I give you 11/10 on the flip of the
> coin, you will win half the time, and over a long
> period will make a profit. You may, however, be
> wiped out by a long losing streak.) There is no
> possible strategy to win by betting without
> accepting that there is also a significant risk
> that you may end up as a loser.
> If your betting activities do not also provide you
> with fun and entertainment, you should think hard
> about why you are doing it.
> It is difficult to find value bets in horseraces,
> since the aggregate odds (in SA) in every race are
> usually around 120%. (ie. you are being offered
> the equivalent of 8/10 on the flip of a coin).
>
> The game is really fun when you log into a betting
> site on Saturday morning and see 3/1 What a
> Winter, back over 1200m at a galloping straight
> course at sea level at level weights. At least
> double the odds that he should have been.

Exactly, the only possible way of making a profit in the long term. But one needs to be astute in assessing perceived value, the bookies are also very very good with ante-post value!!

To build on this is money management. Many punters and books talk about punting the same amount whether the bet is 20/1 or 1/10. My experience has taught me that this is suicide. For me the size of the bet must be commensurate with risk. Every year, ask yourself how much do you want to win per punt and stick to this but bearing in mind the shorter the price the bigger the punt. So, if you want to win R200 and the horse goes off at 20/1 then the size of the punt will only be R10. Conversely, if the horse is 6/10 then the size of the punt will be R330. You're not going to become a millionaire but then you can always chase the Pick 6 for those millions. For SA's Big Six races I treble the prize because those races are what the passion is all about.

mac,

i could not disagree more. Any betting strategy can only be measured to a level stake return. If it returns on a level stake it will return with martingale or fibonacci.

So therefore betting to a level stake or same ammount irrespective of price is the ONLY way to go.
The only way you can measure yourself and your returns is by being consistent in your approach.

So in a losing run of 5 horses at < 2/1 and 1 winner at 10/1 you should break square. By your approach you would be down. That makes no sense at all.

Its like going to the races, with R500 backing 2 x 20/1 winners on the day and 7x 12/10 losers and coming home a loser. My way is as follows arrive on course with R500 R100 for food R400 / 9 R44 bets and if you fluke a 11/1 shot you cannot lose on the day

Mac

the other reason is most people on here i am sure will tell you " i dont look at prices when studying the card"

therefore price is irrelevent in selection process the only thing you can control is your stake and because you use the same selection process for a even money shot as for a 20/1 shot you need to back them with the same stake

Talking of value bets..
In 2006 my good friend was the work jockey on a horse called Silkwood for Michael Jarvis.
He also used to ride Rakti and told me Silkwood was as good as Rakti and not as mad..
They had The Epsom Oaks of 2007 as the long term target,when the antepost prices came out
it was 100/1 and 66/1 in places and generally 50/1. Every top trainer had fillies declared including
Cecil,Stoute,O'Brien,Fabre and so on..
I visited multiple shops around London and had £15 to £20 ew in every one,trying to keep it under
the radar. I had slips everywhere and stood to win in excess of £150,000...
2 weeks before the race Silkwood did a spectacular piece of work and the gallop watchers tipped her.
She was still 25/1 1 week before the race.
Then disaster struck,it rained and rained and she slipped at the yard and over extended herself.
Scratched from The Oaks...
Her next race,she ran in The Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and murdered the opposition by 5 lengths easing down.
The horse she beat 5 lenghts was All My Loving who ran in The Oaks and finished 2 lenghts behind the winner.
She was in better shape prior to the Oaks and would have hacked up....
Even though i lost my stake and you may think im mad,but that was a value bet.And i tend to have more on the
bigger priced ones than the favourites.
That year i also backed Authorised ante post for the Derby,it eased the pain a bit.

Interesting read....but giys it IS possible to make HEALTHY profits from racing...but you gotta be Consistent,persistent and Selective in what you play!!I only play at GTG nd KZN centres....DONT play P6(only sometimes) take a PA,JPT but i make most of my profits from my VALUE BETS!!!I have 1 or 2 horses i normally have a DECENT punt on....Also agree with u guys...when i study i DONT look prices...afterwards when im done ill look at what horses i really fancy then ill have an EW bet.I always bet the same amount on every horse,keep track of all my bets so i know how much im up or down....(use to put down 2units a horse bt learned something by ZIETS,so now i put 1unit win and 2units place as my winning % monthly is about 28-38% bt the place percentage higher)....So I would say his STRATEGY WILL WORK...its just a matter of finding the RIGHT horses.And the likes of MAGI,ENGLANDER,GB are GREAT tippers in there own right...so if you not sure...check their posts.Cheers....Best of luck Ziets

and if you did what i said u must do......then u would have made R7900 CASH TODAY....some people just dont believe and then ......then cry why they didnt....hahahahahahahahahaha

Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:

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> and if you did what i said u must do......then u
> would have made R7900 CASH TODAY....some people
> just dont believe and then ......then cry why they
> didnt....hahahahahahahahahaha


eh? I followed you on your first post (6 selections) and I lost

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:
>

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>

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> > and if you did what i said u must do......then
> u
> > would have made R7900 CASH TODAY....some people
> > just dont believe and then ......then cry why
> they
> > didnt....hahahahahahahahahaha
>
>
> eh? I followed you on your first post (6
> selections) and I lost

THEN MY FRIEND,YOU EITHER SMOKE THE WRONG STUFF OR HAVE NO GLUE WHAT YOU HAD TO DO.....6 SELECTIONS 2 WINNERS,GO READ HOW THE STRUCTURE WORK AND THEN COME SAY YOU SORRY...YOU COST YOURSELF A LOT OF MONEY

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> Zietsman Oosthuizen Wrote:
>

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>

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> > and if you did what i said u must do......then
> u
> > would have made R7900 CASH TODAY....some people
> > just dont believe and then ......then cry why
> they
> > didnt....hahahahahahahahahaha
>
>
> eh? I followed you on your first post (6
> selections) and I lost

CnC... i think if you had played it the Ziets way you'd have had the maximum amount on the one in the last which won, not sure the price Ziets got but the amounts probably would have given a return to about that amount. Lucky for Ziets on this occasion that the last one came in, if it had been the first tomorrow instead he would have lost ()

Ziets, who is crying here? I'm not sure you get the point for many on this forum... people are happy for others to win on here however they do it. It doesn't make you the best or anything, it just makes you another poster having success that others can possibly benefit from. It sometimes sounds like you expect everyone to stop thinking etc and just do what you do. I can't do that, I don't want to do that. I hope you win. I especially hope you win if I decide to follow you in a particular race or on a particular day < but please stop all this whose crying and laughing stuff, it spoils what you are achieving!!!

Oh... and well done bud!!!! (tu)

ziets ok maybe i messed up as I just took a lucky 63 with your selections, have you been following mine tonite? for if you did you may have made a killing.

Here's a thought. How to be more profitable than 95% of punters? Don't bet...., because that's how many are losers:)