BETTING STRATEGIES for PA PLAYS at VAAL SAND

Firstly, some knowledge of what has gone on before is likely to be beneficial.

Facts and figures obtained from results over the last 18 months (rounded for simplicity), show that the average PA dividend is R1 300


A breakdown of these details, relative to the favourite, is more informative;

When the favourite places in 7 legs, occurring...6%, the average dividend is R30.
When the favourite places in 6 legs, occurring 10%, the average dividend is R100.
When the favourite places in 5 legs, occurring 14%, the average dividend is R200.
When the favourite places in 4 legs, occurring 31%, the average dividend is R1000.
When the favourite places in 3 legs, occurring 25%, the average dividend is R1500.
When the favourite places in 2 legs, occurring 14%, the average dividend is R3000.

On average the favourite has been unplaced in 3 of the 7 PA races.

The development of a deliberate approach (strategy), based on knowledge and your own experience, is surely to be more rewarding than a rushed, somewhat ‘slothful’ effort.

An example follows, the emphasis is on the parameters and the structure, your own personal selection methods still apply:-

1. Identify the hard and easier races (by race competitors not number of runners).
2. Identify weak favourites (through ‘form’ analysis’, draw stats, and trainer data).
3. Select your bankers – through above analysis, not based on price.
4. Maximum of 3 selections in any one race (obviously the hardest)
5. Add another selection to short priced favourite you perceive as the ‘banker’.
6. Include well-drawn, good-priced mediocre performers in weak fields.
7. Include ‘first time on sand’ only if well drawn, trainer on form/good sand record.
8. Consider playing 2 PA’s – a short 32 perm (easy) and a 192 or 288 perm (hard).

Further development, fine tuning the parameters based on results, would always be expected.

The application is demonstrated in conjunction with last week’s race meeting (PA NOT WON).
Race 2 looked tricky (The Angelus) and race 4 looked to be very competitive (Phi). In race 6 Delta Lioness had not displayed the form to warrant being favourite and the second favourite Laurel Canyon looked vulnerable with two ‘below par’ recent runs, meanwhile Ugly Betty looked above this class and was decided on as a PA banker. Silver Specialist had returned to his best with two good efforts and was another PA banker. The other obvious banker’s were Mr. Tobin in race 5 and Mannequin in race 7 – however, unplaced favourites make the PA pay, hence rule 5.
The short PA was 2,7 x 2,5 x 1,10 x 1,6 x3 x 4,9 x 4 =32 perms
The long PA was 1,2,7 x 2,5 x 1,10 x 1,6 x 1,3 x 4,7 x 4,10 =192 perms
Mannequin running unplaced had the biggest influence on the PA – R1380…‘typical’.

Everyone looks for big wins from small investments, the PA facilitates this, yet there are always more close calls than hits. The reality is that you may only have 1 win in 20 plays, and it may not always be the big R30 000 that makes the difference, it’s the odds achieved with your investment, the maths are simple.
196 perms at 5% =stake R9.60, return is dividend R5 583x8 perms = R2 233 = 232/1
288 perms at 5%=stake R14.40, return is dividend R14 580x1 perm =R729 = 50/1

For many it is only the bottom line that counts, for others, knowing you did your best…either way the investment in yourself, what are you worth?.

Success is sweet... but it usually has a scent of sweat about it.

Happy Horseplaying

Thanks Happy

Just remember
SAND RACING = 70% BREEDING 30% FORM...

Sand Racing = day off....

I know if you win the PA it can sometimes be a nice payout,but apart from Royal Ascot and Cheltenham i leave alone.
My Strategy would be to back your first selection win and ew if big enough price with 20% of your PA money,
if it wins stake 50% of your winnings or 20% of your original PA funds on the next race.If it places add the place money to your
20%. If you like 2 horses in any race split your stakes accordingly.How many times have you been in 5 legs and won
nothing ?. You wont win the big one but you will win more often...
Its a bet the bookies love,as is placepots and jackpots in the UK

My bet of the day is the PA. I do enjoy the Vaal Sand as it poses the biggest challenge as every race you have horses with exposed sand form and others that don't. I don't follow a PA structure but base it card for card, somedays my perm will work out to be R72 and other days into the thousands. The card coming up on Thursday looks a very competitive card and I am battling to find a PA banker. I think in structuring a PA you need to be flexible and in Races where there are bigger fields don't worry if you through a 4th or 5th horse in on these legs.

Thanks Happy......enjoyed the read. I personally find that the times hold up quite well on the Vaal sand and include the horses with the better times over the relative distance of the race.

I enjoy the Vaal sand more than the Vaal turf

top stuff, very informative

Great stuff HP. How refreshing to read something that was written by an authority on the subject.I wonder how many people realise the number of hours that goes into work like yours

heinrich Wrote:

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> Just remember
> SAND RACING = 70% BREEDING 30% FORM...


Nice post Happy, makes sense.

@Heinrich .... 50% breeding, 30% form, 20% fitness (or perceived fitness through recent runs)

Thanks Happy that was super informative, got rid of some cobwebs i had in the far corners. Where can i find a good read on Horse Racing Betting Strategies ?
Cheers

The difference between showing a profit or not is rarely so much the selections by race,(lets call it the ingredients) but more of how you use them (the recipe)
I guarantee that if you gave all the same info,ratings etc to 100 punters ,you would still get that "5% would make a profit" situation
I have believed this for many years and I had it proved to me again on Saturday...............as anybody who has raced as long as I have will attest to,it's that when your mates go racing 4 x a year you get the call for your thoughts/tips/ratings/numbers.
On Saturday i decided to cut down the time on the phone and sent an identical E-mail with my ratings to everybody who asked(7)................because I was lucky enough to be a Pomodoro and Rumya fan on the day,(and the rest was reasonably straightforward) I looked quite smart!!!
One recipient made R42000 using only the Email (PA2x and both J'pots),another smaller punter made about R10,000 and the other 5 all showed a loss????...........They all put the SAME selections together differently,with a different result.
(not trying to be smart.......just trying to illustrate a point)
As valuable as the facts are that Happy has posted here,and they are!!!......some will be able to convert that type of info into a profitable strategy and sadly ,MOST will not........that "5% that make a profit" rule just seems to repeat itself over and over.
How many times have you had a losing day from a meeting that you felt you were spot on..........except for your structure.
That is the Holy grail that we all never stop trying to perfect and what keeps us comiing back for more!