Some pointers - analysing form

Interesting article

Here are some key points to consider when doing form. They are not in any particular order:

1. Was the win within the last four weeks?
2. Is the horse early in its preparation when you can expect further improvement?
3. Is the horse rising or dropping in weight? If a weight increase can it handle the increased weight? If the weight is dropping will this compensate for the rise (if any) in class?
4. Did the horse have to overcome any difficulties to win or did it get a very soft run?
5. Was the horse eased down near the line or did it have to work very hard to win?
6. Does the horse have the same jockey? If not, why not?
7. Does the horse have a good strike rate? Low strike rate horses every so often fluke a win but don't often repeat.
8. Did the horse run a good time?
9. What are the main differences, for example, pace, between this race and the race the horse won?
10. Do not concern yourself with how the horses it beat have performed since. That is unnecessary and an irrelevant distraction. It prevents punters from backing many winners. If you are betting on for example the football and considering backing Chelsea you do not reason: Chelsea beat the Aston Villa, Aston Villa have just beaten Manchester City so Chelsea will beat Manchester City. Nor would you reason that Chelsea's win was no good because Aston Villa have just come out next week and got thrashed. So don't do it with horses!

Ratings
In racing knowledge is power.
Accurate ratings enable you to compare the ability of one horse with another when they are fit enough to win and racing over a suitable distance. Here are some key factors which need to be considered.

Time and Distance
This is the absolute key. You must know what time a horse is capable of running and over what distance.

Track Variations
For time and distance to be of any use you must devise a method to allow for time variations at different tracks. For example the 1000 metres at Scottsville on a uphill run is run at much slower times than 1000 metres at other tracks.

Class
Horses are equine athletes. Just like humans, some possess far more natural ability than others. Some have the ability or potential to run a distance much faster than other horses. Also, just like humans there are some horses that will never realise their true potential while other horses will perform to their absolute maximum. The horse's ability on a racetrack can be affected by many factors such as age, fitness, training methods, barrier draw, weight to be carried, distance of the race, the ability of the jockey and so on.

Good Tracks
On Good tracks fast horses will win more races than slow horses. However rain affected surfaces are a big equalizer. That is where the plodder without the quick turn of foot can win races. It just keeps plodding away at the same pace.

Weight
Heavy weights on rain affected tracks bog down many class horses. On Good tracks weight is not so significant. However when a horse faces a weight rise in combination with a change from a good barrier draw to a very wide barrier draw there is a multipling affect of disadvantages.
A horse's ability to carry weight is a critical factor which cannot be ignored. It is like the weightlifter who lifts a heavy weight but fails at the next increased weight. Each horse has an individual weight level beyond which it cannot perform in races to anywhere near its natural ability.

Track Bias
Track bias can be caused by any number of factors such as the weather, wind, wear and tear of the track and changed rail positions. Invariably on rain affected tracks jockeys will ride very wide looking for the better going.

The Challenge of Ratings
The thrilling challenge of merit ratings is lining up the form, condition and ability over a particular distance of one horse with another and then putting it all together to frame a realistic, value market which long term makes profits. There is nothing more thrilling than occasionally obtaining absolutely massive overlays.

Bookmakers and Punters
The best bookmakers are highly intelligent and successful businessmen. They work long hours, study the form thoroughly and are also quick thinking, able to react quickly without panic to changing circumstances. They enjoy a challenge but will not accept it if they believe the odds are poor value. They know that to win they must have an edge. This edge is having the ability to know when they have the advantage.

The average punter does not have the edge. It is impossible to have an edge betting from race to race on the spur of the moment. Just look at the number of punters now even betting on computerised phantom horse races. It is impossible to get an edge. They must lose. There are punters who will go to casinos, play blackjack and count the cards. That is smart play. They have the edge. Then there are the majority of punters who will just sit down at the blackjack table and play. They will never have the edge and will be long term losers.

The important thing when you have the edge is the ability to use the information you have to predict the outcome more often than random chance will allow. That is what the bookie does who spends hours studying form. That is what the professional punter does. That is not what your average punter does.

Jockeys
You cannot dismiss the ability of the jockey engaged to ride the horse when trying to evaluate the horse's chances of winning a race. Statistically it is just about impossible to measure the difference between any number of leading jockeys.
A good, experienced jockey more than compensates for an apprentice's weight allowance unless we are dealing with an exceptional talent. However there are also some senior jockeys who I would never back even if they were on exceptionally talented horse . A chimpanzee could ride the horse better!!

Time and Distance
As I said earlier these are the absolute keys to ratings. You must know what times a horse can run and over what distance. On Good and Fast tracks a comparison can be made of the different times run by horses that day making allowances for many factors such as weight carried, distance of the race, class and a host of other factors like barrier draws, luck in running and so on. When you know what time a particular horse is capable of running on a particular track over a particular distance and you combine that with an assessment of the weight carrying capacity of the horse you are well on the way to creating powerful ratings.

Good Post TERO

SECOND THAT !

Exellent post. I follow form results up to 6 weeks back on Formgrids. Only if there were winners and strong placings & and the horse has not raced since, then I will look at trainer, jockey, jockey & trainer combo stats, c/d etc and make my choice. Jmho

OR, how do you know when your selections offer value or not? I think this is very important.

Cheers Tero

Whoever wrote the original article was doing OK until point 10,,,,,,,if that is right, the whole principle of FORMGRIDS is wrong.............I don't think so!

yeah,i also DISAGREE with point 10....and actually it does work EXACTLY the way they saying it doesnt!thats how we get LINE HORSES to compare horses that have NEVER met b4!then u use a LINE HORSE!

i also DISAGREE with point10..... a strong formline is a very good pointer...... how many winners have come out of a certain race is very usefull!!!!

EXACTLY!so TERO follow da advice except for no 10!

10. Do not concern yourself with how the horses it beat have performed since. That is unnecessary and an irrelevant distraction. It prevents punters from backing many winners. If you are betting on for example the football and considering backing Chelsea you do not reason: Chelsea beat Aston Villa, Aston Villa have just beaten Manchester City so Chelsea will beat Manchester City. Nor would you reason that Chelsea's win was no good because Aston Villa have just come out next week and got thrashed. So don't do it with horses!

I think the writer is trying to illustrate that Chelsea beat Aston Villa due to several reasons:
- perhaps Aston Villa player was sent off & they played with 10 men
- perhaps Aston Villa played away from home & they do not play well from home
- perhaps Aston Villa had several key players suspended for this particular match
- perhaps this match was played on a poor pitch that did not suit Aston Villa
- perhaps the match was night match & it was raining etc.

There is a correlation between the above football match and horses:
- a horses will get beaten by another horse 'cos he come from a rest
- a horses will get beaten by another horse 'cos he might not like the rainy conditions etc.

What I have deduced that racing is not an exact science, there are too many variables and everybody has his or her own way of selecting horses. I think everybody will not agree with all 10 points hence these points are open to debate. This article is one persons perspective of analysing form.