The bookies, and most punters, believe that the team to lift the World Cup ’26 trophy will come from an elite cohort, including Argentina 19/2, Brazil 9/1, France 5/1, Spain 9/2, England 15/2 and Portugal 8/1.
The next tier of plausible contenders features Germany and Netherlands who are priced up at 15’s and 20/1 respectively.
Taken together, those eight footballing sides account for 85% of the probability that one of them is crowned Champion of the World.
Indeed, persuasive cases can be made for each of these teams. But which sides are lurking as possible surprise packages, potential “dark horses” in a 104-match tournament to be decided on fine margins across multiple venues under attritional circumstances over an arduous five-week period?
Historically, whilst there are always weird results within the World Cup tournament, the side that ultimately prevails is typically one of the pre-tournament favourites.
Respecting that reality, the Goal Guru has nevertheless done some imaginative research to uncover a few teams which may outperform their outsider status and cause a few shocks:
Norway is in Group I, which is very competitive with France and Senegal dangerous foes, apart from Iraq who appear over-matched. Still, the expanded format gives Norway a legit chance of making the knockouts. Typical of Scandinavian teams they are organized and cohesive, playing with determination to hang in despite tough conditions. Haaland is a force of nature and Sorloth another world class attacker, so watch out for them striking like lighting. Their odds, 35/1.
Morocco reached the semis of the last World Cup, and were heavy favourites to win Afcon where they lost at home to Senegal in December ’25 – only to be reinstated by administrators on a technicality, in a disputed result that still has not been finalized. Because of all those shenanigans and their reputation for gamesmanship, they will be subject to intense scrutiny in the U.S. The resignation of their wildly successful manager Regragui is a major blow to continuity. Despite all these off-pitch, political machinations, they remain a formidable side that could do some damage. Pre-tournament odds of 55/1 are offered by Interbet.
Senegal who were also implicated in the Afcon final chaos, is a strong, well-balanced and deep squad. They have come through their preparations well and are striving to do even better than their last 16 exit in Quatar. They are offered at 100/1 to be the first African side ever to World Cup glory.
Croatia is not to be dismissed as an aging, past-their-best squad of rickety geriatrics. They have very good young players coming through (Vuskovic, Baturina and Sucic) backed up by a core of experienced legends such as Ballon D’Or great, Luka Modric, Perisic and Kovacic. A lack of speed may hinder them in a difficult Group L, but at 125/1 there are obviously going to be some shortcomings evident. This determined, patriotic nation, who always punch above their weight may dramatically outperform these odds.
Japan are 55/1 in early betting. They have a fine squad full of players competing in Europe’s top leagues and have long been a force at international level in Asian Football. Quite what their fate will be in the knockouts is hard to anticipate, but they should, at least, get out of Group F.
Austria are 200/1 longshots. They were tremendous at Euro 2024, beating Poland and the Netherlands, giving France a proper challenge then losing, unluckily it must be stated, to Turkey in the last 16. If they can build on that level, and get some fortunate breaks, they could make an impact. What works against them is an intense pressing style which is hard to execute in a hot climate; they will need to play group matches in three different states and the injury to the brilliant Baumgartner is a massive blow. Despite those negatives, Ralph Rangnick’s team could cause an upset or two.
Türkiye finished third in 2002 but have not again been see at this level till now. They have amazing front line with Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, are solid defensively and have the experience of Hakan to hold it together. They are the class of Group D – if topping the group, they might face either Belgium or Argentina on the West Coast in last 16 games which, whilst difficult, are not totally impossible assignments for an excellent well-balanced outfit blending the vitality of youth and senior wisdom. Their price – 90/1.
Cote D’Ivoire pose an attacking threat in Group E. This team, blessed with great and skillful athletes such as Diallo and Diomande, can trouble rivals on the quick counter. 250/1 are the odds about them winning – suitably far-fetched, but don’t rule them out from scaring much higher ranked sides.
Switzerland at 80/1 lack the pizzaz of big-name nations but are a well drilled tournament team. They seem sure to get through Group B, one of the weakest, which could trigger a clash versus Portugal in the round of 16, With cagey, Murat Yakim at the helm, they may just ruffle a few feathers.
To bet on exclusive World Cup Pools go to
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