Punting the horses-Skill or Luck?

Frodo Wrote:

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> Mac Wrote:
>

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>

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> > I think the real deal is to notice the value in
> > the bet. Value is not just a long shot runner,
> if
> > you think the horse is worth 5/10 and the
> market
> > price is 8/10 then the bet is value, if not
> then
> > no bet just like who would bet heads at 9/10 on
> a
> > two sided coin? But the difficult trick is how
> to
> > objectively determine that value. I would like
> to
> > hear how other Clansmen may do it.
>
>
> Valid points. Determining the value is of course
> subjective - what may seem value to me may not be
> seen as such to you; for myself the dilemma is
> that 'value' comes along far too seldom; so one
> has to make a distinction whether one is punting
> for fun or to make a living out of it. In order to
> make a living out of it (and I certainly don't),
> discipline seems to be the key word; you have to
> wait for that real 'value' opportunity to come
> along and the problem of course is that one gets
> impatient and convinces oneself that this really
> is the 'value' bet one has been waiting for
> (although deep down you know the reason why this
> seems like 'value' is only because you have not
> had a serious bet in 3 months). And then the
> 'value' bets tend to lose as well sometimes -
> there is often a valid reason why the horse is
> priced up at 'value' odds - but this does not mean
> that it was not 'value', it just did not win. So
> to echo what most of us know - punting
> professionally is a hard 'game'.
>
> If one is punting for fun, it becomes slightly
> easier, you do not HAVE to make a profit (although
> it is of course nice to win something decent every
> now and then) - perhaps money lost should be seen
> as paying for entertainment. Almost like going to
> watch the Lions play, it is almost certain that
> they will lose, but they may just surprise you and
> win. 'Value' criteria is much more relaxed when
> punting for fun and I myself often use the 'value'
> horses as bankers in my excotics - which of course
> means that I lose many more times than I win (and
> even if I win it does not always make up for all
> those losses) - but although this irks me for a
> while, the feeling soon passes (normally as soon
> as I pick up the next meeting's Computaform). And
> if it's not 'fun' anymore, then stop - it's no use
> pursuing a 'hobby' if you don't get any 'fun' out
> of it - that's the theory anyway.As an example I
> will not take a bet at the Vaal meeting tomorrow,
> there is imo no 'relaible' form to work on, and I
> think I will have more success selecting the
> winners by throwing darts into the Computaform
> than by studying the runners closely; there is no
> challenge in it so rather stay out and wait for
> Friday or Saturday.
>
> Just my opinion.




nothing to add! just one question: these days, when everything turns into gold, as you say - do you think it is just coincidence - or is it a sort of intuition, rythm, this special genious impulse at the right moment to decide AGAINST the market...?

saldiani I have no idea what it is, if I had, I would bottle and sell it and make millionsB)

This reminds me of an old boy called Bob (never knew his surname and some of you may know him) who used to use the late Buddy Maroun as his trainer. Bob was a widower with a couple of sons whom, I think, managed his game farms. His sons weren't at all interested in racing and became concerned as they perceivedly saw their Dad's capital "drain away" on the horses. They addressed this issue with their Dad Bob and Bob responded that it is the horses that give him a kick in life. When one of the sons suggested that he could just take a whore to get a kick poor Bob replied that he didn't have a prostate........
Thanks Frodo, Rusty and Saliani - its all about the kick.

I would say 80 % skill and 20% luck guys. You must have luck in running, BUT you do need to analasie whether the horse has a higher probability than another to have luck in the running. On the comment about listen to comments from other (i.e. insider Trading) I strongly believe that you will loose more than you will win on Insider trading. If someone could get a better return on a horse for having the winner all by himself would he risk the odds spreading the word? Or could he possible gauge the chances of all the other Trainer's runners in the race so well to be certain that his mount will win...and if he does know this share it with the rest to dilute the return? Or could he perhaps knowing the result rather start a rumour regarding another animal that has a very good chance of winning and thereby improve the odds on his runner? It is just Normal Human Behaviour...Greed comes to mind... But even the trainer most of the time cannot say whether his horse winning is a certainty except if it is blatantly obvious to all... Take Rod Bachus as tipster of the Computaform at the Vaal today. Rod did better than ANY other tipster around and I must congratulate him on that picking the winner on 5/9 occations in a difficult day and on 2 more his 1st selection running a place. Unfortunately it does not happen like that every day so for me to be able to make a living out of horseracing I ONLY take place bets and for that I am lucky to be one of the 5%, BUT it takes a HUGE amount of discipline to ONLY play 2/3 selections per day for a place. But if you do that and can grow your money by even as little as 50% a MONTH, you will be RICHLY rewarded.

Could you believe that only on a starting bank of £1000.00 by growing by 50% a MONTH you will have a bank of £129,746.34 in one year!? I ALWAYS only play 20% exposure of my bank and by only picking 2/3 per day to place I maintain an above 85% strike rate on the horses I select. But it takes studying of atleast 3 hours a day to be able to pick those 2/3 horses. No exotics, no Win, no Trifectas, no Quartets, purely probabilities to place. Must be extremely boring to only choose runners to place, but the reward is in seeing you rmoney grow by atleast 50% a month, and that is well worth it!

The other comment I would like is to support Mac in the BIG value decision. Do not take a bet just because it comes along. Decide beforehand what you would see as good value and stick to this rule. If a horse now all of a sudden pays alot less than you expected as a return on it...decide carefully whether it is still worth the RISK? It is RISK vs. REWARD guys and although High Tea paid only R1,10 a place on BF today there was no risk since there simply was not 3 horses that could pass it. So the easiest 2% (20% exposure x 0.10 return) in a day return that you would ever get!

Happy Punting!

Loopy Logic

Neither.
Gauteng - MDK, LAIRD, WOODRUFF and TARRY.
must be able to read.

when the other win, we are all out of the P6.
today

R1 - woodruff
R2 - other
R3 - other
R4 - other
R5 - Tarry
R6 - MDK & Woodruff
R7 - Tarry & Woodruff
R8 - Tarry
R9 - other

Thanks Andre, you make it look so easy....

Loopy, I think your logik is spot on,
Problem is discipline, dont know if most can stick to the plan
I am willing to try your system ,in rands though!!

Loopy your maths is correct but the problem with your accumulator is that ,in the last month,a 20% stake is BP17,300 which would be quite difficult(apart from mentally) to place.Not easy to convince yourself that any horse is worth a place bet of that value(R216250) even if you could place it.
The system is theoretically possible but not practical, IMO.

rob faux Wrote:

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> Loopy your maths is correct but the problem with
> your accumulator is that ,in the last month,a 20%
> stake is BP17,300 which would be quite
> difficult(apart from mentally) to place.Not easy
> to convince yourself that any horse is worth a
> place bet of that value(R216250) even if you could
> place it.
> The system is theoretically possible but not
> practical, IMO.


Hi Rob,

Isn't that a WONDERFULL problem to have! You gotta remember that the BP17,300 is the bet for the month so split up in 36 meetings a month and 9 races per meeting with only selecting 2/3 per day it does mean that your mean average per bet you take per day based on only 2 runners per day is only £240.27 per runner. That is VERY achievable and I currently easily match a BP500 bet on place betting even on the lessor venues.

It therefore does make the system VERY practical and achievable. What I have found once it reaches monstrous amounts I tend to move the money over to other markets again playing on probabilities but where I can easily match these astonomical amounts, i.e. EPL, WC Cricket, Tennis Match Odds, etc. even just making a return of 6% on a match (i.e. Barcelona vs Valladolid the last match of the Spanish season to win the league)

I would say my biggest problem (as Rusty states further up) is discipline now, again HUMAN Behaviour lol. So yes, I am now my worst enemy to be able to manage myself in only playing accumulator bets every day.

If you conquer this you are on the road to financial freedom.

Regards,

Loopy

Hi Rusty,

Certainly give it a try! No other Legal Scheme, Company, Share, investment etc. will give you the returns that horseracing provides provided you take great care in your decicion making. You take great care in which shares you invest in, you take great care in deciding where you spend your money, why not the same in horseracing? Make a sound business decision, do not let anxiety, thrill, etc. overcome you and only make a decision based on solid analysis.

I am happy to let you know which is my 2/3 selections every day if you pop me a line.

Regards,

Loopy

Loopy,I am 100% with you on needing a staking plan.....no system,in any form of gambling can survive without it.
The difficulty with accumulating plans though, is how quickly a "ceiling" is reached.
I am sure you agree the 3 keys to winning are a)system to identify bets b)patience to wait for them.and c)Staking plan for money management.

My concern with your later months,with an accumulation as large as that, is the pressure to find more good bets,which,as you know,sometimes tempts one to manufacture them!
Best wishes tho and hope it goes well......I love to see well thought out plans succeed.

Hi Rob,

Totally agree with the first part on the keys, the discipline and the structure, BUT not on the last part of "manufacturing" a bet. I inevitably pick only 2/3 per day every day...and the size of the bank and the amount I have to put on it has no bearing to it whatsoever...I simply just make the decision of those 2/3 regardless every day and based on my rules 90% of the days there is 2/3 that comes along. I have over the years looked at the rules to go through to decide on these 2/3 every day and up to date I have approx 36 points I look for some more than others, but all of these 36 rules falls down if it does not fit into the 7 Golden Rules and those 7 golden Rules I would still go ahead if 5/7 of these rules are met provided that 1 Super Rule gets adhered to. You will not believe what that rule is, you would be amazed how logic it is, but after many years of being part of the 95% I realized that the results mostly have 1 thing in common...unfortunately I cannot let tell you what this is over the forum but would be glad to share it with you over my email. (not to worry it is an absolutely elementary simple rule with a very logic explanation to it once you know it)

Send me a mail and I would gladly share it.

Regards,

Loopy