Will be hugely disappointed if Rich Man's World gets rolled because i took 13/10 ante post, currently trading at 5/10 with no scratchings.
Would like to believe i found a winner at a decent price, race 2, Dog Soldier, 8/1 and drifting. This horse has improved with every run, having it's peak run after the gelding and rest Made up ground from a wide draw. Habib retains the ride which is a good thing. A repeat of it's last run should see him involved in the finish (or so i'm hoping).
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
Today's Scottsville computer model's rankings. Should be interesting to see how the model rankings per race perform on a graded stakes day. Thought I'd post them here early. As always punters take these rankings at own risk if they back them.
Typically, I use them as follows:
I back EW high conviction races' top rated or top two looking for a gap on second or third horse under the pwin % and also noticing the comment eg today: Top by Pwin: #5 TIME IS PRECIOUS (28.9%, fair odds 3.5). F-cluster: 1 horse. Conviction: 2.60x random (strong). Single F-cluster horse = natural banker candidate.
That 2.60x random is my signal as the model is ranking #5 2.6x above a random outcome. Yes, yes I know Fourie's ride is the impossible to back at 1.45 for value Rich Man's world. I then slash for exactas >=R20 and play SWGs that pay >=R10 on tabgold's swinger dividends using the top two or three on a slash basis ie 1/2,3 and for exacta I reverse 2,3/1 too. Yesterday at FVP I got nothing until the large races, eg Race 7 where my top rated ran 2nd (#14) but my second rated won (forget the winner's name now) but the exacta paid R77 and that SWG paid R14.40 That race alone made my day profitable. FVP at best is unpredictable but my top two had a high conviction comment in Race 7. Next race or final race #1 Teerex which was both my top rank and market favorite ran 4th unfortunately so I missed out on that SWG and EXA. Point being the top 3 in a strong conviction race usually at 2.00x random outcome is the one to look at and the ones on which I usually have a flutter.
May it be a profitable day for everyone!
Last edit: 14 hours 22 minutes ago by Ptahotep.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Magi, Sammy Silver
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