HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)

Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.

TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.

The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished sixth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event. 

Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.

When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 - a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.


TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.

No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.
HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)

GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.

The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race. 

In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119. 

A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings. 


Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”


Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:

• SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
• ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
• RADIO STAR: 95 to 107

  WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)


HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117. The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107. Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights: 

• SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
• DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108

  WILGERBOSDRIFT ACACIA STAKES (LISTED)

CARE FORGOT’S official merit rating has been raised from 97 to 102 after winning the Listed Wilgerbosdrift Acacia Stakes over 1600m. In this race, KISSHOTEN (third) was deemed the most suitable line horse, with her rating left unchanged at 107. Under race conditions, the maximum increase for placed runners is limited to three points. Accordingly, runner-up WARNING SOUND could only be raised from 87 to 90, despite achieving a higher performance level. Three horses received rating reductions: 

• WILLY MEET AGAIN: 104 to 102
• LADY FALLON: 102 to 100
• DOITWITHDIAMONDS: 100 to 99

  TAB J J THE JET PLANE STAKES (Grade 3)

WILLIAM ROBERTSON’S official merit rating remains unchanged at 124 following his 17th career victory, achieved in the Grade 3 TAB J J The Jet Plane Stakes over 1000m.  WILLIAM ROBERTSON, who was rated 105 as a one time winner at age 3, went up to a rating of 125 from 117 following his 2nd place run in the 2022 Grade 1 Mercury Sprint and has now accumulated 5 Graded race wins. He was deemed the most suitable line horse for this race, hence his unchanged rating. By rating the race in this manner, MOVER AND SHAKER also ran to his mark of 109, effectively making him a line horse as well. Upward adjustments were made for the following horses: 

• TAXI TO THE MOON (runner-up): 117 to 119
• RAFA BAY: 94 to 97
• CONSTELLATION: 113 to 114

 Two horses received rating reductions: 

• COSMIC STAR: 106 to 105
• MOUNT PINATUBO: 110 to 109

Gobbledygook claptrap hufflepuff

Oak Trial
Curious Girl MR 86 to MR 92. I assume race condition prevent higher increase. Ran to MR100 or 101
Into Dancing MR 83 to MR 85

Derby Trial
Diogenes MR 80 to MR 86. I assume race condition prevent higher increase.
Master Spy MR 87 to MR 88

Aquanaut
Daimyo MR 99 to MR 105

Pinnacle 1800 meters
Choisaanada MR 116 to MR 121. Handicapper determined to smoosh this horse. Feel sorry for patrons

Pinnacle 1400 meters
Sunset Riot MR 101 to 107

I see Vee Moodleys NHRA will no longer issue a press release on why they updated Merit ratings, after big race days.

www.sportingpost.co.za/panel-finds-trust...ropriate-line-horse/

Feels like Deja Vu

Sylvester wrote:

www.sportingpost.co.za/panel-finds-trust...ropriate-line-horse/

Feels like Deja Vu

I think this is a dog's breakfast - no one is sure what the ACTUAL ratings are - and again it seems that the fillies have escaped any appeals - meaning that the fillies are rated higher than the colts - wait with bated breath how the July weights will look 

Lets take a look at a horse like

Blaze Away 4 year old gelding 11 runs 1 win
Given an MR86 at end of 2 year old season 1 win from 2 starts
6 runs as a three year old rand second 1st up followed up by 5 bad runs end season MR 83
3 runs so far as a four year old all very bad runs. down to an MR 80.
so after 8 shocking runs the handicapper still believed this horse should be only down 6 points.
This horse should be running Off a MR 68
This system drives owners out of the game, it is harsh on the way up and ultra conservative on the way down.

The system needs to change before racing is left to a handful of big owners.

Frodo wrote:

Sylvester wrote:

www.sportingpost.co.za/panel-finds-trust...ropriate-line-horse/

Feels like Deja Vu

I think this is a dog's breakfast - no one is sure what the ACTUAL ratings are - and again it seems that the fillies have escaped any appeals - meaning that the fillies are rated higher than the colts - wait with bated breath how the July weights will look 

Would love to race Trust  against Hazy Dazy at handicap level for a  living.... Or even Tin Pan Alley against Trust at Handicap level
 

An independent panel constituted in terms of Clauses 20.3 and 21.3 of the NHA Constitution
consisting of Messrs K Miedema, A Sewpersad and A Maharaj
was convened on 30 March 2026 to consider a Merit Rating Appeal lodged by Trainer Sean Tarry
against the adjusted merit rating of TIN PIN ALLEY from 117 to 128 following his performance in the
WILGERSBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER Gr1 HORSE CHESTNUT Stakes on 7 March 2026, at Turffontein.The Panel unanimously found that the Official Handicapper’s use of TEXAS RED as a line-horse was appropriate, due to consistent performances by this gelding.The Appeal was accordingly dismissed, and the deposit fee is forfeited.

I find their findings wrong
Tin Pan Alley they rated at 128 at best maybe 122 or they have the wrong line horse or needed to make mulitple line horses
They have See it again at 120 
Texas Red as line horse 119
Fire Attack 118
Main defender 117
Cosmic Speed 114
Atticus Finch 110
The Real Prince 105
Press on regardless 104


 
 

Trust nominated in open Company - Giving the Handicapper Chest pains if he stands

After having his merit rating reduced from 119 to 110 earlier this week following an appeal, Candice Dawson’s 3yo Trust was withdrawn at 12h15 today from Saturday’s R2 million weight-for-age HKJC World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge at Turffontein.
The connections of Trust may well have an eye on the R10 million Hollywoodbets Gr1 Durban July at this stage, and the related risks of running their now 110-rated 3yo to finish on top of, or even beating the likes of established older hard-knockers like See It Again (130) and others, is something to consider.

from Sporting Post

Does make sense .... but with MR of 110, he would need to win the likes of the Daily News ... and by that on the ratings of the other 3-yr old colts, he may not be that badly in ... damned if you do  ... damned if you don't ....