HOLLYWOODBETS DURBAN JULY 2025 SATURDAY 05 JULY

Sad days racing no winners for me.

ISIKWISHIKWISHI 

Pirhobeta wrote:

Pirhobeta wrote:

I Am Giant... My pick to post
@Heinrich I'm prepared for the egg, but Great Plains just a bit too rocking horse for me. IMO

 

Rahiel likes your horse, and he's a good judge

I don t even know Rahiel lol
i know and trust your judgement lol. My bets were done long before they wnet to the start. I said a while back he has issues. That run showed it. He will be back, thats for sure
 

Pirhobeta wrote:

Chronicle King upset outside place

Brilliant eye again!!!! When the horse hit the front....i asked myself...'WTF'  than grabbed the computaform to see if it was a reserve runner who got it...hahahhahahaa very well done thou. 
 

No luck, near misses on the exotics but that didn't help except the last race
where my software had the winner at R15, SWG 11/4 R13 and the exacta
R135 allowing had I played it a complete recovery. At least I felt vindicated
by that result on the poly no less.
I was shocked by the slow pace of the feature event-it became
a Kenilworth course sprint over 400m forcing Fourie to come out
early and go for home. 8on18 needed a stiffer pace to pick them
off one by one and win in style.
Why, as someone already mentioned, Snaith did not deploy a solid
front-runner boggles the mind-Oriental Charm went to the front for free
then dictated the pace...slowed it down.
Well back to the midweek fair...

Would appreciate it if someone could shed some light on what I thought were strange dividends yesterday. 

July winner 14/1 pays R10 on the Tote with a strong ruling favourite and at least 5 other runners being backed.

The quartet dividends where the favourite missed the first four were low when one considers the increased pools. It doesn't make sense unless the overseas/local punters were able to improve their strike rate on the day.

Something is amiss for me, increased pools do not mean increased success rate. Unless a disproportionate amount is used to pay overseas punters, which would lead me to wonder how their success rate is higher than local punters?

....the local tote mysteriously disabled the July race from the world pools and the local operator took their rather larger rake.....a message flashed up on my tote betting screen announcing that due to technical issues that they offer a 4th place so I decided  to play places on Native Ruler paying R10+....this reduced pool changed the win place odds and the winner was closer to 2nd fav exposing that there was bigger local tote action for this eventual winner....the exotics were poorer for this rather strange action and the biggest July winner were the operator.....miffed

A few observations .... I don't think the Tote will survive with the discrepancy in the dividends; secondly I have pointed out the ludicrous 'management' (as well as the cowboy riding by the jocks) of the NHA - how can anyone have any respect of the (mis)judgements from celebratory gestures etc ....

I did not have a great meeting myself and have read most post-mortems of the meeting and the July; suffice to say that I did not think The Real Prince would stay - but he was aided by a slowish pace and imo out-sprinted 8 on 18 because of the slow pace; imo On My Honour (despite some bad-luck stories) did not stay; the same for Gladatorian; Selukwe ran above my expectations, despite being 'out-at-the-weights', while Royal Victory ran his usual game race; best performance of the race (in addition to 8 on 18) imo Native Ruler, who has unlimited potential   

In doing my postmortem a few things stood out:
Joe made Tomyris a good thing which backed up what I thought, thank you for being transparent.
Lance Michael was phenomenal in that his advice was invaluable concerning horses he thought were the wrong price, thank you.
Robert Bloomberg had the best bets on the day and would have cleaned up with the Yankee, King Pelles/Anotherdanceforme/DBLGSLAM/Zietz... he also said you cannot ignore The Real Prince in the main race.

The best form book was Winning Form by a long shot, Magic Tips gave 9 of 12 Winners and the last JPOT for R625 that paid 20k... yes they had I AM GIANT

I still think something was amiss with the travel of the JHB horses and the Tote remains an anomaly.... i did find it interesting that all the provincial interviews leaned towards horses from their province as opposed to exposed form.

The above is just my opinion, all disclaimers apply😀

Horses to Follow:
AHEAD OF THE FACTS - top run but will be penalized for running 3rd
LIMITLESS SKY - Continues to improve with every run and distance not a problem 
MAI SENSATION- Top run with low weight and 1 draw
O'TENIKWA - Top run by 3yr old with 58kgs
ZEITZ - Top win and 400 to finish very good, will be even better as he matures
JP'S PALACE - Top run by 3yr old with 58.5kg drawn 11... hope the new handicap doesn't stop him from winning soon