Green with envy Daily news and July double

Fancy Green with envy to have a clean sweep in KZN? Betway is offering 6.5 for the double.

 

Is that all....ridiculous price for a doubleof that magnitude....should be 20/1

I have not seen odds but remember a same horse double has a deduction of around 30% ? 

i would have loved 20/1 too. but in order for this bet to be 20/1 that means green with envy will need to open about 6/1 for the Daily news and thats not going to happen.

we are also taking the 30% deduction for the same horse double into consideration. original odds were 5.5 and we boosted to 6.5. i still believe its good value for a horse that might start 22/10 for the July

I guess that's about right .

Consider its evens for 2000mt and 4/1 July 

10/1 less 30% is around 6/1

But is it wins 2000 Mt will probably go 5/2 ish 

Good Punting 👍 
 

Spot on Dave. 

After consulting with some clever punters 

It would appear this is an excellent price as the consensus is that GWE will start money on for the 2000mt race .......

For me Green With Envy surprised me with the run on the Guineas, as I was of the opinion that the Gauteng 3 yr-olds were better than him. I thought the pace of the race (as there was a tail wind)  was quite quick - I have not checked the sectional times (perhaps Heinrich can assist ?), so maybe he was helped by that ? But it has to be said that he ran on very well and to outrun Sandringham Summit was no mean feat - not too sure though that he would get a fast pace in the July 

As to the price,  would not say it is ridiculous - but not for me - he will probably win the Daily News, but depending on the Handicapper he might be lumping a biggish weight (especially if he wins the Daily News). 

Interesting that he is now rated at 123 (Nett 119) so his win in the Guineas has actually cost him half-a-kg .... if See It Again runs, GWE will carry 53.5 kgs (minimum weight for a 3yr-old is 53 kgs) - conversely this would mean that he is not out-at-the weights anymore 

@ Frodo , on a line through Sandringham Summit where would place Purple Pitcher vs GWE ?



 

@Dazza - On strict form one would have to say that there is not much between Purple Pitcher and Green with Envy -  and the 3 yr-olds have swept all before them - so at the moment one would have to say that if you are not on a 3 yr-old you have done your money - but this is racing so who knows ? I just checked the race times and the Fillies Guineas was run in a faster time than the males - so one would have to think that the pace for the males was maybe not that fast - and that would make Green With Envy's run all the better - Purple Pitcher grinds them down from on the pace, while GWE comes with a finish - so hard to choose - if Purple Pitcher runs in the Daily News, I certainly would not take Evens on GWE .... 

Not sure what the plans are for See It Again - probably will go the Gold Challenge route and then the July - for me interesting if he perhaps tries blinkers - but if he runs in the July he still has many under sufferance.

Interesting as well is the 1900 tomorrow - looking at ratings, one would hesitate to choose Future Swing - but Richard probably chose him (is v Niekerk suspended or injured ?) and FS needs to up his rating to have any chance of making it into the July, while Mucho DInero also has to almost win it if he were to get in the July (yet he is one of the more fancied runners A/P); I guess that Without Question will not win (as he has a high enough rating, so no sense in upping his rating by winning) and the plan might be for Rachel to ride in the July (with the ride on See It Again going to Striker again) - so the 1900 could provide a bit of an upset 

 

I think he even surprised Kannameyer winning over 1600m as the older he gets the more ground he is looking for and agreed turn of foot to beat Sandringham Summit was impressive. 

I also think there is very little between Purple Pitcher and GWE so I hope they do meet in the DN 2000 from a racing enthusiast's point of view as should be another cracker . 

Still a long way to go in trying to solve the Durban July conundrum but early signs point to a 3yr old winning it ! 



 

Frodo wrote:

For me Green With Envy surprised me with the run on the Guineas, as I was of the opinion that the Gauteng 3 yr-olds were better than him. I thought the pace of the race (as there was a tail wind)  was quite quick - I have not checked the sectional times (perhaps Heinrich can assist ?), so maybe he was helped by that ? But it has to be said that he ran on very well and to outrun Sandringham Summit was no mean feat - not too sure though that he would get a fast pace in the July 

As to the price,  would not say it is ridiculous - but not for me - he will probably win the Daily News, but depending on the Handicapper he might be lumping a biggish weight (especially if he wins the Daily News). 

Interesting that he is now rated at 123 (Nett 119) so his win in the Guineas has actually cost him half-a-kg .... if See It Again runs, GWE will carry 53.5 kgs (minimum weight for a 3yr-old is 53 kgs) - conversely this would mean that he is not out-at-the weights anymore 

quite correct....The pace was quite Good and the way he won....and taking into account that he was half switched out....his sectionals was quite brilliant!!!!! In my eyes and according to the times he ran...He will win the July