Cape Racing - Durbanville preview for 29th June 2022
Mid-week racing switches back to Durbanville after an extended spell at Kenilworth. The tracks are fundamentally different – whilst Kenilworth is wide open and thus a fair, galloping track, the Northern Suburbs, country course is tighter with turning bends that favour handily placed entries who can easily secure positions near the front, preferably from low draws.
It will be interesting to see how some form horses fare racing against the ideal track profile. For example, the favourite in Race 1 over 1250m, Capitaine Maurice will need to overcome draw 8 out of 9 if he is to get the job done for Crawford Racing.
Main challenger, I Did It My Way lived up to his name when debuting three weeks ago – languishing impossibly far behind at midway he suddenly got the message and made up many lengths to run right on top of the placed horses. Such late running tactics seldom work at Durbanville however and he will need to stake his claim earlier.
Look for an improved run from Furie Nocturne who comes back as a gelding after two so-so efforts. He may be able to live up to some promising earlier workouts and do much better now from an ideal inside alley at tempting odds.
The daughter of Erupt, Queen of Sparta can live up to favourite billing in Race 2. She fits the track profile just right – speed on the rail from a low draw. Her form is pretty solid too. Gypsy Express and the potently bred, likely improver, Inara’s Dynasty (out of Grade 1 winning race-mare, Inara) loom as the biggest threats.
Unless bred-for speed firster, Love Rules is a market springer for the powerful Snaith stable, Race 4 could be a boat race between Perilla and Simply Beautiful. The former shows good speed and is drawn towards the inner and may prefer being dropped back to sprints after running out of gas over 1400m.
The grey’s main rival, Simply Beautiful gets help from jock, Richard Fourie who has been called up by Noordhoek based trainer Mike Stewart. When they join forces, the duo is usually involved in the finish, so she is a must-use for exotics.
Pas de Nom appears to have the best credentials in Race 5 but will need an alert ride from jockey Keagan de Melo, as they are drawn 11 out of 12. However, a wide gate over 1600m is not the end of the world and de Melo will have the whole backstretch to position his mount. This son of Rafeef was only three lengths off top-notch juvenile, We’re Jamming in the Cape Nursery and is poised to open his Maiden account over this longer 1600m journey.
Sun Dazed might be the solution in an intriguing, Race 8. The juvenile Seeking the One (s/s 89 +) has run two neat races and is accordingly priced up 2/1 favourite but a lack of familiarity with the course coupled with draw 9/9 over 1250m are knocks against his chances, though.
Market rival, Sun Dazed (s/s 96) is not drawn much better at 8 yet he’s has been keeping stronger company whilst still running credibly and has an edge over his younger opponent on speed figures. Sun Dazed only has a short closing burst, so jockey Aldo Domeyer will need to finesse things to bring this one home from off the pace and maintain an excellent strike rate with trainer Canice Bass Robinson. They are connecting with 27% winners and 56% places to runners.
Perhaps they should fear speedy, course and distance specialist, Fort Red – another Stewart-Fourie team-up special. His best figures of 93-94 bring him right into this equation.
On past performances, All Lit Up is another worth adding to calculations. His only win came aeons ago, yet he reserves some of his better efforts for this track and trip - a declining official merit rating is also easing his task. If he drifts out to odds of 8/1 or better, then this four-year-old Querari gelding could be a “spec bet” with potential in the finale.
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