New MR' after 2 May 2021

Frodo wrote: I'm not going to put up lengthy arguments, other to say -

Using runners like Zarina, Miss Elegance and Caya Coco, Captain's Ransom ran to around 111 - not unlikely imo as I'm sure she would not have been prepped to the minute, for a small feature

For the colts; same applies ito not being not prepped to the minute, for me if one believes that Tread Swiftly ran to 112, then by all means take the 124 for Linebacker at face value :dry:

And ito the Challenge, for me Cirillo in th QP ran to around 114, and again if one believes that Divine Odyssey ran to 118, then take the 128 for Got the Greenlight at face value

But what do I know :huh:

PRESS RELEASE


HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE


4Racing Premier’s Champions Challenge (Grade 1)

GOT THE GREENLIGHT has had his rating raised from 124 to 128 following his success in the Grade 1 4Racing Premier’s Champions Challenge over 2000m on the standside track at Turffontein on Saturday 1 May. The Handicappers were of the view that 3rd placed CIRILLO would not have run worse here than when he finished 5th in the Grade 1 LÓrmarins Queen’s Plate at Kenilworth in January, where he ran to a mark of 123. Accordingly, CIRILLO was used as the line horse here to a rating of 123 and therefore goes up to that mark from a rating of 120.

The Handicappers felt that this was a somewhat conservative view to take as CIRILLO has regularly run to marks of 126 and higher in top flight races, but it was borne in mind that Saturday’s event was run at a very slow early pace and that – perhaps as a direct consequence of this – some of the higher rated horses in the field did not perform to expectations. It was also not overlooked that there was interference which occurred in the early stages of the race, notwithstanding this it was considered that CIRILLO has been used on many occasions at pattern level as a yardstick to rate other pattern winners and as such having CIRILLO running lower than the 123 he achieved when 5th in the Queens Plate would undervalue GOT THE GREENLIGHT’s performance on Saturday, relative to other pattern winners that have beaten CIRILLO. It must be noted that CIRILLO’s pre-rating of 120 is as a result of the drops he received due to recent below par performances, however, the panel believe that CIRILLO appeared to have the run of the race and had at least equaled his Queen’s Plate performance of 123 which as mentioned earlier is below his best pattern efforts. It must also be borne in mind that the Champions Challenge was run at WFA terms and not at handicap terms so CIRILLO was not weighted off the 120 rating and therefore did not benefit in this race from such a ratings drop.

Runner-up SECOND BASE was raised from 116 to 125, while as already noted CIRILLO is up to 123 from 120. There were no other increases, but two horses were given a rating drop. SUMMER PUDDING is down slightly from 129 to 127, while BARAHIN drops from 119 to 116.


4Racing Computaform Sprint (Grade 1)

RIO QUERARI has had his rating raised from 125 to 130 after he ran out a fluent winner of the Grade 1 4Racing Computaform Sprint over the straight 1000m course at Turffontein on Saturday. It was felt that in finishing 4.75 lengths off the winner at level weights in a Grade 1 race CHANTYMAN would not have run below the rating of 119 which he has earned in minor KZN events and accordingly used him as the line horse, which leaves him unchanged on 119.

In rating the race this way, 4th placed CHIMICHURI RUN achieves the same mark of 123 as when he finished 3rd behind RIVARINE and RUSSET AIR (both unplaced here) in what looked to be a weaker renewal of the Computaform Sprint in 2020. It was felt that he would not have run worse this time round, and was given a slight drop from 126 to 125 as an overall re-assessment.
2nd placed BOHICA goes up from 118 to 125 and would accordingly meet RIO QUERARI on 2.5 kgs better terms should they face each other in a handicap. There were increases also for VERNICHEY, who is up slightly from 113 to 114, and for MIND READER, who was picked up marginally from 96 to 105, MIND READER actually produced a performance figure of 115.

Aside from CHIMICHURI RUN, there were drops for two other horses. RUSSET AIR is down from 121 to 117, while MIRACLE FLIGHT drops from 99 to 96.


4Racing Camellia Stakes (Grade 2)

CELESTIAL LOVE has had her rating raised from 105 to 119 after her emphatic win in the Grade 2 4Racing Camellia Stakes for fillies and mares over 1160m at Turffontein on Saturday. Runner-up SARAH was deemed to make for the best line horse here, which leaves her unaltered on a mark of 112.

3rd placed SWEET FUTURE goes up from 107 to 110, while in the only other increase 4th finisher TROPIC SUN was raised from 107 to 109.

Three runners were given a rating’s drop. RIO’S WINTER is down from 108 to 106, SINGFORAFA drops to 114 from 117, and lastly POOL PARTY was cut from 97 to 95.


4Racing Gerald Rosenberg Stakes (Grade 2)

NETTA has seen her rating climb from 102 to 120 following her runaway success in the Grade 2 4Racing Gerald Rosenberg Stakes for fillies and mares over 2000m at Turffontein on Saturday. Given the strung-out nature of the finish, the Handicappers saw no alternative to using 2nd placed SPARKLING WATER as the line horse, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 109.

The winner aside, there were no increases for any other horse, while the only drop sees SARAGON being trimmed from 104 to 103.


4Racing Gold Bowl (Handicap) (Grade 3)

DON’T LOOK BACK has had his rating raised from 96 to 101 after he captured the Grade 3 4Racing Gold Bowl (handicap) over 3200m at Turffontein on Saturday. It was felt that 4th placed ODD ROB had run very similarly to when he achieved a mark of 91 by finishing 4th in the Grade 3 Caradoc Gold Cup over 2850m four weeks earlier and he was used to that rating when assessing the Gold Bowl. Accordingly, ODD ROB was given a small drop and is down from 94 to 93.

Runner-up SMOKING HOT was fully seven pounds or 3.5 kgs under sufferance at the weights and accordingly goes up from 87 to 98, while 3rd finisher OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE was raised from 99 to 101.

There were no other increases, but two horses were given a drop. IMPERIAL RUBY is down from 100 to 98, while FACTOR FIFTY was dropped from 105 to 103.


World Sports Betting Guineas (Grade 2)

LINEBACKER has had his rating raised from 115 to 124 after his victory in the Grade 2 World Sports Betting Guineas over 1600m on the Greyville turf course on Sunday 2 May. The Handicappers were of the view that 5th finisher MK’S PRIDE made for the best line horse, especially as he earned his rating when beating older horses in the Grade 2 Hawaii Stakes at Turffontein in March, and as such his rating remains unchanged on 119.

The Handicappers were also aware of the fact that LINEBACKER appeared to win this event somewhat more easily than the winning margin of 0.60 length suggests and therefore raised 2nd placed SEEKING TO STARS from 117 to 121 rather than the 123 he ostensibly achieved if the numbers are read literally. In other words, it was felt that LINEBACKER should have a rating which is more than one pound superior to that of SEEKING THE STARS (who also enjoyed the run of the race after avoiding the considerable interference suffered by some runners approximately 300m after the start.)

3rd placed KOMMETDIEDING was raised from 117 to 120, while 4th placed RUSSIAN ROCK is up from 114 to 119, both horses finishing the race off nicely after having little luck in running. The only other raise was for INFINITE WONDER, who achieved a 111 but only goes from 74 to 92 to keep him in line with the 95-rated TREAD SWIFTLY, who finished 1.40 lengths ahead of him. There were no ratings drops for any runner in this race.


World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas (Grade 2)

CAPTAIN’S RANSOM remains unchanged on a mark of 126 after she won the Grade 2 World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas over 1600m at Greyville on Sunday. It was 4th placed ZARINA who was considered to make for the correct line horse, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 107. In rating the race this way, CAPTAIN’S RANSOM only runs to rating of 112, while the 118-rated runner-up PRINCESS CALLA runs to 109. Accordingly, there was no increase for either filly.

There were ratings adjustments for 3rd placed FREE STATE STAR, who goes up from 92 to 108, for ONLY THE BRAVE, who was raised from 88 to 97, and for HUGS ACCEPTED, who is up from 87 to 96. ONLY THE BRAVE and HUGS ACCEPTED only received marginal adjustments and actually achieved 105 and 104 respectively.

Two fillies were given a rating’s drop. MISS ELEGANCE is down from 105 to 103, while GEE FOR GO also drops to 103 from 105.


Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes (Grade 2)

RAINBOW BRIDGE remains unchanged on a mark of 134 following his impressive win in the Grade 2 Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes over 1400m at Greyville on Sunday. The Handicappers felt that ULTRA MAGNUS would not have run below his rating by finishing 3rd in a race of this quality and elected to use him as the line horse, leaving him unchanged on a mark of 120. In assessing the race this way RAINBOW BRIDGE in fact runs only to 130, hence his unaltered rating.

2nd placed CATCH TWENTY TWO was raised from 116 to 123, while 4th finisher TRIP TO AFRICA who achieves a 118 was only adjusted to 114, this makes him two pounds higher than SILVER OPERATOR who remains on 112. The only other increase was for SOCRATES, who goes up 102 to 106 to at least make him two pounds higher than the 104-rated PINKERTON, who finished 1.40 lengths behind him at level weights.

There were no other increases, but three horses received a rating’s drop. EDEN ROC is down from 119 to 118, WILD COAST goes from 110 to 108, and lastly SUNSET EYES was trimmed from 112 to 111.



Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team

Too many inconsistencies by far imo - but the most glaring would be the rating of Tread Swiftly - from the Press Release it would seem that his rating has not been increased (and the ratings on the NHA website have not yet been adjusted) - my sums tell me that if TS runs to 95, then Linebacker runs to 105 - and if Linebacker runs to 124, then TS runs to 114 - so which is it ?

The MR team need to be replaced with new people. they have twisted themselves into knots trying to make their view work. bring in three new people and see how that works this team are past their sell by date.

Some very weird “logic”.
Retrospective handicapping is NOT allowed under their rules, yet somehow Cirillo is rated here off a mark he last achieved 6 months ago, and not off the official rating that he had going into this race?
MKs Pride is a 1400m specialist, and achieved his rating over that trip, but now as the 5th placed horse he is deemed the appropriate line horse ?

There was a couple of errors in the original presser, the changes have been marked RED

Point me to the rule that disallows retrospective ratings please.

JayPeg19 wrote: Point me to the rule that disallows retrospective ratings please.

It's in the how to manipulate ratings section, just above the you can add 3 pounds to the line horse guideline

The handicappers do just like they feel, ignore their own handicap rules. It’s like they don’t trust their own ratings and thumb suck these stories about a line horse and what he did long ago when it comes to graded races. Generally, they get it right but when it comes to graded races they make no sense at all.

2021/05/02 TURFFONTEIN RATINGS:
Gr1 4Racing Premier’s Champions Challenge
Handicappers must be crazy to use CIRILLO’S performance in the Queen’s plate, he ran more to a 110 that day. If CIRILLO did a 123 then HURRICANE HARRY must be a 113 and he only managed once to go over 100. To me every horse in the Queen’s Plate was rated to high, it was a slow false run race and JET DARK just happened to out sprint them.
The winning time in this years Queen’s Plate was 98.38 with a pen reading of 21, whereas in the Green Point stakes BELGARION did a 96.72 with a pen reading of 22 and VARDY a 97.00 (Pen reading 21) in last year’s Queen’s Plate. CIRILLO last did a 123 in the Green Point stakes. It looks like CIRILLO was the line horse Saturday but with a rating of 120, and that brings GOT THE GREENLIGHT to a 124 and DIVINE ODYSSEY to a 110 which they are rated.
2021/01/09 KENILWORTH (Queen’s Plate):
2020/12/12 KENILWORTH (Green Point Stakes):
2020/01/11 KENILWORTH (Queen’s Plate):
Premier’s Champions Challenge runners form:

Gr1 4Racing Computaform Sprint
CHANTYMAN a 119? More like a 116. TRUE TO LIFE a very consistent 115-117 makes a better line horse and she definitely is not a 121.
Gr1 4Racing Computaform Sprint runners form:

Gr2 4Racing Gerald Rosenberg Stakes
NETTA really is impressive on the soft, her first win at Scottsville was with a pen reading of 23 and her last 2 wins was on Turffontein and both with a pen reading of 25. I have her on a 121 on this race but its mainly due to the soft going (or the other horses lack of performance in the soft), don’t think she’s near that when the pen reading is 21. RUNNING BRAVE looks like she does not respond on soft as she also ran a similar rating in a pinnacle stakes at Turffontein on 14 November last year where the pen reading was 24.
Gr2 4Racing Gerald Rosenberg Stakes runners form:

Gr2 4Racing Gold Bowl
I rate DON’T LOOK BACK better than 101 over 3200m but in this race I think he only managed a 97.
The handicappers always tend to rate horses to high in graded races.
Very hard to rate races over this type of distance as weight has a much bigger effect over 3200m than 1000m.
Gr2 4Racing Gold Bowl runners form:

2021/05/02 GREYVILLE RATINGS:

Gr2 World Sports Betting Guineas
MK’S PRIDE is at his best over 1200m -1400m and ran below his best over 1600m before so I don’t understand them making him the line horse. The Hawaii Stakes was over 1400m where he earned his rating.
LINEBACKER keeps improving and KOMMETDIEDING had bad luck.
Gr2 World Sports Betting Guineas runners form:

Gr2 World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas
I have it the same as the handicappers here.
CAPTAIN’S RANSOM and PRINCESS CALLA are well above average but their merit ratings of 126 and 118 is too high, CAPTAIN’S RANSOM could be a 126 (Ja Ziets ek dink ook so) but in my book she only achieved a 119 (Majorca Stakes) and PRINCESS CALLA never did better than a 112 (Met).
2021/01/30 KENILWORTH (Majorca & Met):
WSB Fillies Guineas runners form:

Gr2 Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes
Mr Handicapper, ULTRA MAGNUS is a 1160m-1200m horse, only achieved close to 120 once in the Merchants over 1160m. SILVER OPERATER makes a better line horse here, but you handicappers will ignore him because then you can’t push the other horses ratings up like you want.
WILD COAST is a good example, you made him a 114 after the Cape Guineas in 2019 and he still battles today with his lowered 110. (Where is KILINDINI, VIVA RIO and MACTHIEF today?)
Drill Hall Stakes runners form: