Sunmet day ratings achieved races 4 to 10 for discussion

Cheers Bob

Camphoratus up to 105
NHA Press Release detailing the handicappers thinking regarding the Grade 1 HSH Princess Charlene Empress Club Stakes run at Turffontein on Saturday 13 April 2019.

APRIL 15, 2019
EMPRESS CLUB STAKES (Grade 1)

After discussion between Handicappers, CAMPHORATUS had her rating increased from 95 to 105 following her last-stride win in the Grade 1 Empress Club Stakes over 1600m at Turffontein (standside) on Saturday 13th April.

There is no reason to doubt CAMPHORATUS’ performance as she did win the Grade 3 Flamboyant Stakes at Greyville in December and she has now won in her first attempt at Grade 1 level.

In assessing the race, it was agreed that the right key horse to use was third placed NAFAAYES to the 103 she actually achieved when she won the Grade 2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas (over the same course-and-distance as the Empress Club Stakes) and again when she finished second in the Grade 1 SA Fillies Classic. NAFAAYES has been highly consistent and seems to be a logical choice of line horse.

RUNNING BRAVE goes up from 99 to 104 after she finished a close second in the Empress Club. She had finished behind NAFAAYES in both the Gauteng Fillies Guineas and in the SA Fillies Classic and it seems obvious enough that she must have run a better race here. NAFAAYES was dropped from 107 to 106 and is now the equal of 5th placed CELTIC SEA (whom she also beat in the Gauteng Fillies Guineas).

In other changes, OH SUSANNA was dropped from 119 to 118 and so remains higher than LADY IN BLACK (117), who finished 2nd behind OH SUSANNA in the Grade 1 Paddock Stakes during the Cape summer season. FIORELLA drops from 102 to 100, FRESNAYE was dropped from 110 to 108 following two below-par efforts since she arrived on the Highveld. GHAALLA has been dropped from 102 to 100, CASCAPEDIA goes from 109 to 107, and AL DANZA has had her rating cut from 104 to 102.

Some strange decisions imo - I agree on the ratings of Camphoratus and Running Brave, which would make Nafaayes 102; the others ran to a level below their best, but to drop OS by 1 point makes no sense - either you ignore the run and keep her the same, or you give her the rating she ran to - which is 100 on my calcs - I have always maintained that she was never as high as 121 or 119, but her run on Saturday was below he ability imo - same goes for runners like Celtic Sea (1600 too far imo) and Fresnaye .... but to drop them a point or two makes no sense imo

Its like a fairy tale these adjustments.