Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
- Andycap
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Definitely not making the Right Choice today... Sylvester too good there.
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Been receiving a hiding today so might as well go on...
Crazy Swinger Bet
GLORIOUS ARTIST finished by Derby Contender Dark Dream lto to give Elusive State a strong challenge here..
JOLLY GENE is only having his second run on the AW after warm up run over shorter, caused some upsets in the past and the 1650 should suit...&
HANG'S DECISION to run another honest race with Lai in good form.......
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Crazy Swinger Bet
GLORIOUS ARTIST finished by Derby Contender Dark Dream lto to give Elusive State a strong challenge here..
JOLLY GENE is only having his second run on the AW after warm up run over shorter, caused some upsets in the past and the 1650 should suit...&
HANG'S DECISION to run another honest race with Lai in good form.......
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Elusive State surely booked his place to Dubai there. Another masterclass by De Sousa.
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- durbs
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months agoYes De Sousa is a really good jockey.UK losing out on the best jock they had there.Andycap wrote: Elusive State surely booked his place to Dubai there. Another masterclass by De Sousa.
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Glad to have Moreira back as well.
Those two will hopefully get the pick of the rides ahead of that twit Purton who you can always count on to ride some awful races on odds on shots.
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Re: Re:RE: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months agoHi Durbs.durbs wrote:Yes De Sousa is a really good jockey.UK losing out on the best jock they had there.Andycap wrote: Elusive State surely booked his place to Dubai there. Another masterclass by De Sousa.
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Glad to have Moreira back as well.
Those two will hopefully get the pick of the rides ahead of that twit Purton who you can always count on to ride some awful races on odds on shots.
Due to being a little bored today I decided to do some number crunching to see if there is something to your comment.
And guess what, the numbers confirms your statement.
So just for interest sake, I analyzed Moreira, Purton and De Sousa to see how they compare.
Overall.
Moreira with the best winning strike rate of 23% leads Purton by a short head on 20% with De Sousa 3rd on 14%.
However, on the other end, and the one which really matters imo is the fact that overall Purton comes out on top with a loss of -6.3 for every R1 wagered based on the SP of his runners. De Sousa is second on -10.7 and Moreira a distant 3rd on -34.1.
Overall Ranking
1. Moreira
Win Strike Rate: 23%
ROI: -34%
Profit / Loss R1: -34.2
IMPACT VALUE: 1.18
2. Purton
Win Strike Rate: 20%
ROI: -2%
Profit / Loss R1: -6.3
IMPACT VALUE: 1.05
3. De Sousa
Win Strike Rate: 14%
ROI: -7%
Profit / Loss R1: -10.7
IMPACT VALUE: 1.14
Moreira and De Sousa have a bigger impact than Purton based on the SP of their mounts but one should not forget, earlier in the season with both the former two absent a lot of Purton's mounts were priced up a lot shorter than they were supposed to be due to a lack of competition.
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
The Overall rank seems to contradict your comment so I looked a little deeper.
Below is the stats for runners based on a SP of 5/1 and lower.
1. Moreira
Win Strike Rate: 40%
ROI: 12%
Profit / Loss R1: +6.8
IMPACT VALUE: 1.46
2. De Sousa
Win Strike Rate: 29%
ROI: 9%
Profit / Loss R1: +3.8
IMPACT VALUE: 1.38
3. Purton
Win Strike Rate: 23%
ROI: -33%
Profit / Loss R1: -49.8
IMPACT VALUE: 0.93
And there it is. Backing Purton at short odds can only lead us to the poor house.
Confirms Moreira as the king of Hong Kong on odds on shots.
Will be interesting to see if De Sousa can maintain this profitability with more rides.
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Below is the stats for runners based on a SP of 5/1 and lower.
1. Moreira
Win Strike Rate: 40%
ROI: 12%
Profit / Loss R1: +6.8
IMPACT VALUE: 1.46
2. De Sousa
Win Strike Rate: 29%
ROI: 9%
Profit / Loss R1: +3.8
IMPACT VALUE: 1.38
3. Purton
Win Strike Rate: 23%
ROI: -33%
Profit / Loss R1: -49.8
IMPACT VALUE: 0.93
And there it is. Backing Purton at short odds can only lead us to the poor house.
Confirms Moreira as the king of Hong Kong on odds on shots.
Will be interesting to see if De Sousa can maintain this profitability with more rides.
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- Andycap
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Just to be fair I also looked to see what the outcome would be if one compare their runners from 5/1 - 30/1. I made 30/1 the cut off as not surprisingly, Moreira had no mounts that started above these odds and the other two did.
1. Purton
Winning Strike Rate: 17%
ROI: 44%
Profit / Loss R1: +47.5
IMPACT VALUE: 1.44
2. De Sousa
Winning Strike Rate: 9%
ROI: -5%
Profit / Loss R1: -5.5
IMPACT VALUE: 0.97
3. Moreira
Winning Strike Rate: 2%
ROI: -88%
Profit / Loss R1: -36.9
IMPACT VALUE: 0.23
To summarize,
Seems if one want to play it safe, go with De Sousa.
Moreira is the man for those confident bankers.
You wanna make money, draw a line through anything below 5/1 with Purton in the saddle, Beauty Generation excluded, and back all up until 30/1.
Now I only need to learn how to apply this to my betting and hopefully I will be able to get this thinking ship floating again.
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1. Purton
Winning Strike Rate: 17%
ROI: 44%
Profit / Loss R1: +47.5
IMPACT VALUE: 1.44
2. De Sousa
Winning Strike Rate: 9%
ROI: -5%
Profit / Loss R1: -5.5
IMPACT VALUE: 0.97
3. Moreira
Winning Strike Rate: 2%
ROI: -88%
Profit / Loss R1: -36.9
IMPACT VALUE: 0.23
To summarize,
Seems if one want to play it safe, go with De Sousa.
Moreira is the man for those confident bankers.
You wanna make money, draw a line through anything below 5/1 with Purton in the saddle, Beauty Generation excluded, and back all up until 30/1.
Now I only need to learn how to apply this to my betting and hopefully I will be able to get this thinking ship floating again.
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
www.tabnews.co.za
Y SELECTIONS (Wednesday January 16, 2019)
JANUARY 15, 2019
RACE 1: #6 Happy Rocky, #4 Clement Legend, #1 Smart Baby, #3 Ishvara
RACE 2: #2 Jumbo Bus, #1 Nashashuk, #4 Show Mission, #8 Paddington
RACE 3: #4 Family Leader, #2 Impeccable Fellow, #8 Clear Choice, #6 Glory Star
RACE 4: #3 Flash Famous, #5 Perfect To Play, #7 Marvel Joy, #1 Good For You
RACE 5: #1 Navas, #4 Back In Black, #2 Phantom Falcon, #6 Jolly Bountiful
RACE 6: #1 Seven Heavens, #12 Lady First, #10 Waldorf, #3 Eagle
RACE 7: #1 Little Bird, #8 Blitzing, #4 Prance Dragon, #12 Noble Delight
RACE 8: #2 Green Luck, #3 Happy Dragon, #8 Relentless Me, #7 Bank On Red
RACE 1: BOWRINGTON HANDICAP
#6 Happy Rocky doesn’t win often, with his last victory coming 11 months ago in a similar Class 4 over the same course and distance – although, that day, his win came off a rating of 55, whereas he’s now on a mark of 47. His last effort was solid, too, so he comes into this with major claims. #4 Clement Legend has won his last three starts, including one over this track and trip. He returns to Class 4 now but, given his recent form, he must be given a chance. #1 Smart Baby has also strung together three wins in a row. He has plenty of weight to carry here and meets Happy Rocky 14 pounds worse for defeating him a length and a quarter in November, but he’s going to have every chance under Zac Purton. Veteran #3 Ishvara looks to have another win left in him at some point after his last-start second and he can’t be overlooked.
RACE 2: CANAL HANDICAP
#2 Jumbo Bus ran well enough at big odds at his first attempt at Class 5. He will win quickly in this grade and he’s worth having on side here. #1 Nashashuk makes his Class 5 debut at what is also his first run this season. He’s had a few issues but he belongs up in grade, so it won’t surprise to see him win easily in this spot. #4 Show Mission has a good course and distance record. He performed poorly last time out but he is a major contender in this spot. #8 Paddington isn’t without claims.
RACE 3: PERCIVAL HANDICAP
#4 Family Leader has run well enough at both starts to date. He gets Zac Purton aboard here from a good draw and the step up to 1650m should suit him. He’s a player. #2 Impeccable Fellow has not shown a lot in his last three starts since winning here in October. He has drawn well again though and is capable of improving at any time. #8 Clear Choice has performed fairly in three course and distance efforts at his last three starts. Perhaps the fourth time is the charm. #6 Glory Star has won his last two starts and has clearly been primed under Jimmy Ting. That win streak will come to an end shortly but perhaps he could add one more before he strikes his peak.
RACE 4: PERCIVAL HANDICAP
#3 Flash Famous didn’t have the best of luck last time out at Sha Tin after pulling too hard at his first start back in Class 4 in December. Perhaps the faster pace here, combined with this grade, will allow him to find the winners’ circle once more. #5 Perfect To Play ran on nicely last time out. He may need to shed more points yet but he’s worth including here. #7 Marvel Joy is sure to have plenty of support with the blinkers applied for the first time and Zac Purton jumping aboard. He’s a contender, although it would not be wise to take anything too short. #1 Good For You is next best.
RACE 5: THE CRAIGENGOWER CRICKET CLUB CHALLENGE CUP
#1 Navas is always a player down in Class 4, having scored a win and two placings from three starts. Not only does he drop back into his favoured grade, but he also gets Zac Purton aboard. He looks primed to win his way back into Class 3 here. #4 Back In Black has dropped a long way from his halcyon days. He didn’t show much at Sha Tin last time out but Happy Valley has always been his happy hunting ground and he must be watched closely. #2 Phantom Falcon also returns to Class 4, a grade where he put together a string of placings. He must be watched closely. #6 Jolly Bountiful can’t be dismissed.
RACE 6: WONG NAI CHUNG HANDICAP
#1 Seven Heavens hadn’t shown much in his first nine Hong Kong starts, besides a second to eventual G2 winner Hot King Prawn in June. However, his last run in November at his first run in Class 3 was tremendous from a wide gate and he arguably should have won. He will take a power of beating in here. #12 Lady First hasn’t shown much here at Happy Valley at the past but he might be one who could improve with no weight here. He’s worth including in all exotics. #10 Waldorf is racing well and can’t be discounted. #3 Eagle is in the mix.
RACE 7: WONG NAI CHUNG HANDICAP
#1 Little Bird needs things to go his way to win but he might just get those circumstances here. If he can cross and lead, he’ll be tough to pass. #8 Blitzing may cross and put pressure on from the outside gate. He’s a leading player whichever way it goes, although it would be preferable if Karis Teetan is able to sit outside the lead without applying too much pressure. #4 Prance Dragon has run well in two of his three starts to date. He steps out for Tony Millard for the first time and he must be kept safe. #12 Noble Delight can run a nice race with no weight on his back.
RACE 8: SPORTS ROAD HANDICAP
#2 Green Luck will be seeking to win his way into Sunday week’s Hong Kong Classic Mile with victory here. He gets blinkers on for the first time and looks the type who should be able to score another victory in this spot. #3 Happy Dragon won very well last time out. He has to contend with a wide gate but, if he gets into a good spot with cover midfield, he’s capable of winning again. #8 Relentless Me gets another good gate which could prove crucial in here. He’s a place chance. #7 Bank On Red is also a place chance if luck falls his way.
Y SELECTIONS (Wednesday January 16, 2019)
JANUARY 15, 2019
RACE 1: #6 Happy Rocky, #4 Clement Legend, #1 Smart Baby, #3 Ishvara
RACE 2: #2 Jumbo Bus, #1 Nashashuk, #4 Show Mission, #8 Paddington
RACE 3: #4 Family Leader, #2 Impeccable Fellow, #8 Clear Choice, #6 Glory Star
RACE 4: #3 Flash Famous, #5 Perfect To Play, #7 Marvel Joy, #1 Good For You
RACE 5: #1 Navas, #4 Back In Black, #2 Phantom Falcon, #6 Jolly Bountiful
RACE 6: #1 Seven Heavens, #12 Lady First, #10 Waldorf, #3 Eagle
RACE 7: #1 Little Bird, #8 Blitzing, #4 Prance Dragon, #12 Noble Delight
RACE 8: #2 Green Luck, #3 Happy Dragon, #8 Relentless Me, #7 Bank On Red
RACE 1: BOWRINGTON HANDICAP
#6 Happy Rocky doesn’t win often, with his last victory coming 11 months ago in a similar Class 4 over the same course and distance – although, that day, his win came off a rating of 55, whereas he’s now on a mark of 47. His last effort was solid, too, so he comes into this with major claims. #4 Clement Legend has won his last three starts, including one over this track and trip. He returns to Class 4 now but, given his recent form, he must be given a chance. #1 Smart Baby has also strung together three wins in a row. He has plenty of weight to carry here and meets Happy Rocky 14 pounds worse for defeating him a length and a quarter in November, but he’s going to have every chance under Zac Purton. Veteran #3 Ishvara looks to have another win left in him at some point after his last-start second and he can’t be overlooked.
RACE 2: CANAL HANDICAP
#2 Jumbo Bus ran well enough at big odds at his first attempt at Class 5. He will win quickly in this grade and he’s worth having on side here. #1 Nashashuk makes his Class 5 debut at what is also his first run this season. He’s had a few issues but he belongs up in grade, so it won’t surprise to see him win easily in this spot. #4 Show Mission has a good course and distance record. He performed poorly last time out but he is a major contender in this spot. #8 Paddington isn’t without claims.
RACE 3: PERCIVAL HANDICAP
#4 Family Leader has run well enough at both starts to date. He gets Zac Purton aboard here from a good draw and the step up to 1650m should suit him. He’s a player. #2 Impeccable Fellow has not shown a lot in his last three starts since winning here in October. He has drawn well again though and is capable of improving at any time. #8 Clear Choice has performed fairly in three course and distance efforts at his last three starts. Perhaps the fourth time is the charm. #6 Glory Star has won his last two starts and has clearly been primed under Jimmy Ting. That win streak will come to an end shortly but perhaps he could add one more before he strikes his peak.
RACE 4: PERCIVAL HANDICAP
#3 Flash Famous didn’t have the best of luck last time out at Sha Tin after pulling too hard at his first start back in Class 4 in December. Perhaps the faster pace here, combined with this grade, will allow him to find the winners’ circle once more. #5 Perfect To Play ran on nicely last time out. He may need to shed more points yet but he’s worth including here. #7 Marvel Joy is sure to have plenty of support with the blinkers applied for the first time and Zac Purton jumping aboard. He’s a contender, although it would not be wise to take anything too short. #1 Good For You is next best.
RACE 5: THE CRAIGENGOWER CRICKET CLUB CHALLENGE CUP
#1 Navas is always a player down in Class 4, having scored a win and two placings from three starts. Not only does he drop back into his favoured grade, but he also gets Zac Purton aboard. He looks primed to win his way back into Class 3 here. #4 Back In Black has dropped a long way from his halcyon days. He didn’t show much at Sha Tin last time out but Happy Valley has always been his happy hunting ground and he must be watched closely. #2 Phantom Falcon also returns to Class 4, a grade where he put together a string of placings. He must be watched closely. #6 Jolly Bountiful can’t be dismissed.
RACE 6: WONG NAI CHUNG HANDICAP
#1 Seven Heavens hadn’t shown much in his first nine Hong Kong starts, besides a second to eventual G2 winner Hot King Prawn in June. However, his last run in November at his first run in Class 3 was tremendous from a wide gate and he arguably should have won. He will take a power of beating in here. #12 Lady First hasn’t shown much here at Happy Valley at the past but he might be one who could improve with no weight here. He’s worth including in all exotics. #10 Waldorf is racing well and can’t be discounted. #3 Eagle is in the mix.
RACE 7: WONG NAI CHUNG HANDICAP
#1 Little Bird needs things to go his way to win but he might just get those circumstances here. If he can cross and lead, he’ll be tough to pass. #8 Blitzing may cross and put pressure on from the outside gate. He’s a leading player whichever way it goes, although it would be preferable if Karis Teetan is able to sit outside the lead without applying too much pressure. #4 Prance Dragon has run well in two of his three starts to date. He steps out for Tony Millard for the first time and he must be kept safe. #12 Noble Delight can run a nice race with no weight on his back.
RACE 8: SPORTS ROAD HANDICAP
#2 Green Luck will be seeking to win his way into Sunday week’s Hong Kong Classic Mile with victory here. He gets blinkers on for the first time and looks the type who should be able to score another victory in this spot. #3 Happy Dragon won very well last time out. He has to contend with a wide gate but, if he gets into a good spot with cover midfield, he’s capable of winning again. #8 Relentless Me gets another good gate which could prove crucial in here. He’s a place chance. #7 Bank On Red is also a place chance if luck falls his way.
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- kristieN
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Jackpot
Happy Valley 16 Jan 2019
1,6,11,12,13/1,3,10,11/1,2,3,4,8,12/2,7
Happy Valley 16 Jan 2019
1,6,11,12,13/1,3,10,11/1,2,3,4,8,12/2,7
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Preview and form for the meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday. Selections by Andrew Hawkins.
SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Sunday January 20, 2019)
RACE 1: #4 Guy Dragon, #1 Khaki, #7 Enjoy Life, #2 Picken
RACE 2: #4 I Do, #5 My Winner, #10 Majestic Endeavour, #13 Alcazar
RACE 3: #3 Helene Leadingstar, #5 Ho Ho Khan, #9 Nicconi Express, #2 Savvy Six
RACE 4: #9 Ezra, #5 Fabulous Eight, #2 Full Of Beauty, #4 Eptiwins
RACE 5: #2 D B Pin, #3 Beat The Clock, #1 Mr Stunning, #5 Little Giant
RACE 6: #10 Penang Hall, #5 Super Giant, #6 Famous Warrior, #8 Last Kingdom
RACE 7: #1 Beauty Generation, #2 Pakistan Star, #6 Conte, #4 Southern Legend
RACE 8: #3 California Archer, #6 Happy Victory, #8 Hair Trigger, #5 Explosive Witness
RACE 9: #2 Marzouq, #5 Noble Steed, #6 Not Usual Talent, #1 Kingsfield
RACE 10: #12 Glorious Spectrum, #11 Waikuku, #9 Mission Tycoon, #10 My Darling
RACE 1: BONHAM HANDICAP
#4 Guy Dragon ran on nicely for fourth behind Tornado Twist, a subsequent winner up in grade, last time out. He looks to have talent and this is not a tremendously difficult affair, so he’s worth a play.
#1 Khaki has raced consistently since joining the Tony Millard yard. He has a wide gate to overcome, but he should relish the 1400m now and he’s a threat.
#7 Enjoy Life has drawn well and is always capable in races like these. He’s in the mix. #2 Picken is likely to go off under the odds again. He’s a chance, no doubt, but if he’s too short, it’s worth looking for one to beat him.
RACE 2: HOLLYWOOD HANDICAP
#4 I Do ran OK on debut, well enough that he was supported heavily last time out before finishing third to Pearl Champion. The step up to a mile suits now and, even with the outside gate, he’s a leading player.
#5 My Winner has put together a string of minor placings. He once again has to contend with a bad gate but he should be around the mark at the end.
#10 Majestic Endeavour steps up from Class 5, having won nicely last time out. It looked like he was primed for that race so it’s possible he takes a step forward now back up in grade.
#13 Alcazar, who was second on that occasion, can’t be dismissed with no weight on his back.
RACE 3: NEW STREET HANDICAP
#3 Helene Leadingstar steps up to 1800m at his third Hong Kong start. His last effort was better than it looks on paper, making up nice ground late after striking trouble in the middle stages. That race was dominated from the front, too. The South Australian Derby winner probably wants further than the 1800m already but this looks a suitable race and he’s right in contention.
#5 Ho Ho Khan has won his last two starts in Class 3 to put him up into this grade. He needs to take another step forward now but he’s one to watch, with the Hong Kong Derby on his radar should he perform well.
#9 Nicconi Express won nicely over a mile last time out after two placings over 1400m. The logical step is up to 1800m now, but there must be some query on him at this trip. He may be worth opposing.
#2 Savvy Six has not raced since April. His pre-race antics became something of an attraction last season but he looks a little more switched on now after time spent at Conghua and he’s one to watch closely.
RACE 4: THE TUNG WAH GROUP OF HOSPITALS CHALLENGE CUP
#9 Ezra was forced wide last time out but made up some ground late to finish fourth to Invincible Missile at his racetrack debut. He has another awkward draw but he is a player in this spot.
#5 Fabulous Eight has placed in both starts to date. He looks like he should relish the 1200m now, although his dam Coco Kerringle was a type who looked in need of further but struggled once up past 1100m.
#2 Full Of Beauty just won at his first start – a shade luckily, too, as Lakeshore Eagle was gobbling him up. He has to overcome gate 11 but he should take improvement from that first start.
#4 Eptiwins is improving all the time and his last-start second to Dancing Fighter was very good. The booking of Hugh Bowman is notable and he’s not without a chance.
RACE 5: G1 CENTENARY SPRINT CUP
The first four home in the Hong Kong Sprint look the ones to beat here, even with the emergence of three-year-old Styling City on the scene.
#2 D B Pin is back to defend his title, having only raced twice since. He was disappointing first-up in the Jockey Club Sprint before running a game second in the Hong Kong Sprint last time out. He should be approaching full fitness now and he’s going to be the one to beat.
#3 Beat The Clock is still yet to crack it at G1 level, having recorded two seconds and two thirds in this company. He is capable of matching these on his day though, as seen over the past year, and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through. That could come here.
#1 Mr Stunning turned back the clock with back-to-back wins in the Hong Kong Sprint. He failed by a neck to beat his then-stablemate D B Pin 12 months ago and he should have every chance to turn the tables here.
#5 Little Giant can run another bold race here, having finished fourth in the Hong Kong Sprint last time out.
RACE 6: PO HING HANDICAP
#10 Penang Hall was sent out at a ridiculous 134/1 last time out and was far from disgraced, finishing off into sixth. He looked in need of that run and now that he’s stepping out a little bit fitter, he’s a value proposition in this spot.
#5 Super Giant has disappointed in two starts since running home powerfully on debut. He is often his own worst enemy but he steps out for his new trainer Caspar Fownes here and he must be given respect.
#6 Famous Warrior seems to have forgotten how to win, often looming up but struggling to follow through. He’s a place chance.
#8 Last Kingdom needs to settle, but if he does, he can get into the finish.
RACE 7: G1 STEWARDS' CUP
#1 Beauty Generation is likely to start the shortest-priced favourite of the season, and deservedly so. No horse has come close to matching him in the mile ranks this term, winning his four starts by a combined eight and three quarter lengths. Ambitious Dragon did finish fourth in this race as an odds-on favourite in 2013, having won the Hong Kong Mile the start before, but he was engaged in a tussle with Glorious Days to dominate that division and so it wasn’t a major shock. If Beauty Generation went under, it would be as big a shock as Hong Kong racing has seen in a top-level feature in recent years.
#2 Pakistan Star is on trial for Dubai here. There’s little doubt that he hasn’t been the same horse in the early part of the season, but hopefully he’s freshened up well and, if so, he should be running second here.
#6 Conte is the emerging force on the scene. He is still only a light-weight G3 handicap winner, though, so this is a significant step up. He can fight out second.
#4 Southern Legend should enjoy getting back to a mile. He’ll be another in contention for second.
RACE 8: PO YEE HANDICAP
#3 California Archer has run well in both starts for Tony Cruz, including a last-start second to I Am Power. He should be hard to beat in this spot from a better draw.
#6 Happy Victory comes through the same I Am Power race. He will be improved with a start under his belt.
#8 Hair Trigger is always capable of rattling home with even luck over this track and trip. He’s not without claims.
#5 Explosive Witness has had plenty of issues since arriving in Hong Kong 18 months ago. The winner of his only start at Moonee Valley in Australia almost two years ago, he’s worth including in all exotics fresh.
RACE 9: TAI PING SHAN HANDICAP
#2 Marzouq has only raced once this season, finishing seventh over a mile in November. Fresh here, he is worth a play.
#5 Noble Steed ran on last start, although perhaps he wasn’t at his best at a mile. Coming back to 1400m looks a good move and he should enjoy the run of the race here. He’s a contender.
#6 Not Usual Talent ran well enough on debut over 1200m. He has the outside gate to overcome, but the 1400m should suit and he’s capable of getting into the placings.
#1 Kingsfield drops back into Class 3 and bears close watching.
RACE 10: PO YAN HANDICAP
#12 Glorious Spectrum has to contend with a wide gate yet again, but he’s a horse with plenty of talent who has run well in both starts to date. The former Italian looks to be heading in the right direction and is bound for the Four-Year-Old Classic Series after this. He can win, even from the draw.
#11 Waikuku, another classic contender, looks to still have plenty of points in hand. He’s the one to beat, although he’s likely to be far shorter in betting than Glorious Spectrum.
#9 Mission Tycoon steps up to 1400m for the first time. He’s sure to run a bold race.
#10 My Darling was beaten as 3.8 second favourite in this race two years ago. He’s likely headed for Class 3, but he’s capable of getting into the placings at odds.
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SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Sunday January 20, 2019)
RACE 1: #4 Guy Dragon, #1 Khaki, #7 Enjoy Life, #2 Picken
RACE 2: #4 I Do, #5 My Winner, #10 Majestic Endeavour, #13 Alcazar
RACE 3: #3 Helene Leadingstar, #5 Ho Ho Khan, #9 Nicconi Express, #2 Savvy Six
RACE 4: #9 Ezra, #5 Fabulous Eight, #2 Full Of Beauty, #4 Eptiwins
RACE 5: #2 D B Pin, #3 Beat The Clock, #1 Mr Stunning, #5 Little Giant
RACE 6: #10 Penang Hall, #5 Super Giant, #6 Famous Warrior, #8 Last Kingdom
RACE 7: #1 Beauty Generation, #2 Pakistan Star, #6 Conte, #4 Southern Legend
RACE 8: #3 California Archer, #6 Happy Victory, #8 Hair Trigger, #5 Explosive Witness
RACE 9: #2 Marzouq, #5 Noble Steed, #6 Not Usual Talent, #1 Kingsfield
RACE 10: #12 Glorious Spectrum, #11 Waikuku, #9 Mission Tycoon, #10 My Darling
RACE 1: BONHAM HANDICAP
#4 Guy Dragon ran on nicely for fourth behind Tornado Twist, a subsequent winner up in grade, last time out. He looks to have talent and this is not a tremendously difficult affair, so he’s worth a play.
#1 Khaki has raced consistently since joining the Tony Millard yard. He has a wide gate to overcome, but he should relish the 1400m now and he’s a threat.
#7 Enjoy Life has drawn well and is always capable in races like these. He’s in the mix. #2 Picken is likely to go off under the odds again. He’s a chance, no doubt, but if he’s too short, it’s worth looking for one to beat him.
RACE 2: HOLLYWOOD HANDICAP
#4 I Do ran OK on debut, well enough that he was supported heavily last time out before finishing third to Pearl Champion. The step up to a mile suits now and, even with the outside gate, he’s a leading player.
#5 My Winner has put together a string of minor placings. He once again has to contend with a bad gate but he should be around the mark at the end.
#10 Majestic Endeavour steps up from Class 5, having won nicely last time out. It looked like he was primed for that race so it’s possible he takes a step forward now back up in grade.
#13 Alcazar, who was second on that occasion, can’t be dismissed with no weight on his back.
RACE 3: NEW STREET HANDICAP
#3 Helene Leadingstar steps up to 1800m at his third Hong Kong start. His last effort was better than it looks on paper, making up nice ground late after striking trouble in the middle stages. That race was dominated from the front, too. The South Australian Derby winner probably wants further than the 1800m already but this looks a suitable race and he’s right in contention.
#5 Ho Ho Khan has won his last two starts in Class 3 to put him up into this grade. He needs to take another step forward now but he’s one to watch, with the Hong Kong Derby on his radar should he perform well.
#9 Nicconi Express won nicely over a mile last time out after two placings over 1400m. The logical step is up to 1800m now, but there must be some query on him at this trip. He may be worth opposing.
#2 Savvy Six has not raced since April. His pre-race antics became something of an attraction last season but he looks a little more switched on now after time spent at Conghua and he’s one to watch closely.
RACE 4: THE TUNG WAH GROUP OF HOSPITALS CHALLENGE CUP
#9 Ezra was forced wide last time out but made up some ground late to finish fourth to Invincible Missile at his racetrack debut. He has another awkward draw but he is a player in this spot.
#5 Fabulous Eight has placed in both starts to date. He looks like he should relish the 1200m now, although his dam Coco Kerringle was a type who looked in need of further but struggled once up past 1100m.
#2 Full Of Beauty just won at his first start – a shade luckily, too, as Lakeshore Eagle was gobbling him up. He has to overcome gate 11 but he should take improvement from that first start.
#4 Eptiwins is improving all the time and his last-start second to Dancing Fighter was very good. The booking of Hugh Bowman is notable and he’s not without a chance.
RACE 5: G1 CENTENARY SPRINT CUP
The first four home in the Hong Kong Sprint look the ones to beat here, even with the emergence of three-year-old Styling City on the scene.
#2 D B Pin is back to defend his title, having only raced twice since. He was disappointing first-up in the Jockey Club Sprint before running a game second in the Hong Kong Sprint last time out. He should be approaching full fitness now and he’s going to be the one to beat.
#3 Beat The Clock is still yet to crack it at G1 level, having recorded two seconds and two thirds in this company. He is capable of matching these on his day though, as seen over the past year, and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through. That could come here.
#1 Mr Stunning turned back the clock with back-to-back wins in the Hong Kong Sprint. He failed by a neck to beat his then-stablemate D B Pin 12 months ago and he should have every chance to turn the tables here.
#5 Little Giant can run another bold race here, having finished fourth in the Hong Kong Sprint last time out.
RACE 6: PO HING HANDICAP
#10 Penang Hall was sent out at a ridiculous 134/1 last time out and was far from disgraced, finishing off into sixth. He looked in need of that run and now that he’s stepping out a little bit fitter, he’s a value proposition in this spot.
#5 Super Giant has disappointed in two starts since running home powerfully on debut. He is often his own worst enemy but he steps out for his new trainer Caspar Fownes here and he must be given respect.
#6 Famous Warrior seems to have forgotten how to win, often looming up but struggling to follow through. He’s a place chance.
#8 Last Kingdom needs to settle, but if he does, he can get into the finish.
RACE 7: G1 STEWARDS' CUP
#1 Beauty Generation is likely to start the shortest-priced favourite of the season, and deservedly so. No horse has come close to matching him in the mile ranks this term, winning his four starts by a combined eight and three quarter lengths. Ambitious Dragon did finish fourth in this race as an odds-on favourite in 2013, having won the Hong Kong Mile the start before, but he was engaged in a tussle with Glorious Days to dominate that division and so it wasn’t a major shock. If Beauty Generation went under, it would be as big a shock as Hong Kong racing has seen in a top-level feature in recent years.
#2 Pakistan Star is on trial for Dubai here. There’s little doubt that he hasn’t been the same horse in the early part of the season, but hopefully he’s freshened up well and, if so, he should be running second here.
#6 Conte is the emerging force on the scene. He is still only a light-weight G3 handicap winner, though, so this is a significant step up. He can fight out second.
#4 Southern Legend should enjoy getting back to a mile. He’ll be another in contention for second.
RACE 8: PO YEE HANDICAP
#3 California Archer has run well in both starts for Tony Cruz, including a last-start second to I Am Power. He should be hard to beat in this spot from a better draw.
#6 Happy Victory comes through the same I Am Power race. He will be improved with a start under his belt.
#8 Hair Trigger is always capable of rattling home with even luck over this track and trip. He’s not without claims.
#5 Explosive Witness has had plenty of issues since arriving in Hong Kong 18 months ago. The winner of his only start at Moonee Valley in Australia almost two years ago, he’s worth including in all exotics fresh.
RACE 9: TAI PING SHAN HANDICAP
#2 Marzouq has only raced once this season, finishing seventh over a mile in November. Fresh here, he is worth a play.
#5 Noble Steed ran on last start, although perhaps he wasn’t at his best at a mile. Coming back to 1400m looks a good move and he should enjoy the run of the race here. He’s a contender.
#6 Not Usual Talent ran well enough on debut over 1200m. He has the outside gate to overcome, but the 1400m should suit and he’s capable of getting into the placings.
#1 Kingsfield drops back into Class 3 and bears close watching.
RACE 10: PO YAN HANDICAP
#12 Glorious Spectrum has to contend with a wide gate yet again, but he’s a horse with plenty of talent who has run well in both starts to date. The former Italian looks to be heading in the right direction and is bound for the Four-Year-Old Classic Series after this. He can win, even from the draw.
#11 Waikuku, another classic contender, looks to still have plenty of points in hand. He’s the one to beat, although he’s likely to be far shorter in betting than Glorious Spectrum.
#9 Mission Tycoon steps up to 1400m for the first time. He’s sure to run a bold race.
#10 My Darling was beaten as 3.8 second favourite in this race two years ago. He’s likely headed for Class 3, but he’s capable of getting into the placings at odds.
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Re: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months ago
Race 4
Interesting race with a couple of lightly raced runners coming here of good efforts lto. FULL OF BEAUTY with Moreira undoubtedly the pick of the bunch.
I fancy CHARIZARD to give a good account of himself having won back in November against a similar line up from the exact same draw.
E/W 12.5 / 1.5
Cover bet on the Swinger.
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Interesting race with a couple of lightly raced runners coming here of good efforts lto. FULL OF BEAUTY with Moreira undoubtedly the pick of the bunch.
I fancy CHARIZARD to give a good account of himself having won back in November against a similar line up from the exact same draw.
E/W 12.5 / 1.5
Cover bet on the Swinger.
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Go to where there is no path.....
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AND LEAVE A TRAIL
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- Andycap
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Re: Re:RE: Re:Hong Kong Racing 2018/2019
6 years 5 months agoMasterclass from Moreira there.. Charizard produced a little to late but flew up for 3rd....Andycap wrote: Race 4
Interesting race with a couple of lightly raced runners coming here of good efforts lto. FULL OF BEAUTY with Moreira undoubtedly the pick of the bunch.
I fancy CHARIZARD to give a good account of himself having won back in November against a similar line up from the exact same draw.
E/W 12.5 / 1.5
Cover bet on the Swinger.
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Go to where there is no path.....
AND LEAVE A TRAIL
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