Brilliant racing today on World Cup night as always.
Godolphin Mile - North America 2/1, Heavy Metal 7/1 saver
UAE Derby - Lancaster Bomber 8/1
Al Quoz Sprint - Ertijaal 15/10, Limato also another horse who's done well for me but how can you go against the beast that is Ertijaal :woohoo:
Dubai Turf - If this was over the mile I'd probably go for Ribchester who's so classy but here over the extra furlong I have to stick with Zarak who's probably more suited to this and cruised in LTO. Zarak 5/2
Dubai Sheema Classic - Postponed 2/1, this race has been giving me a few probs as I think any one of the top 3 could win it depending on whether they bring their A game. Postponed wasn't very impressive LTO but I'm hoping he needed that and a back to best Postponed will win this. I'm a huge Jack Hobbs fan and I'm pleased to him as a 5yo after his issues. Will throw a saver on him when he drifts out to a better price.
World Cup - No bet. Unlike Chrome last year Arrogate isn't at a backable price so I'm going to enjoy seeing the world's best horse put on a show.
Last edit: 8 years 2 months ago by MasterOfMyFate.
North America has produced some incredible sectionals during the carnival to date and will take all the beating here. It has improved from a non carnival handicap earlier in the season and will come here fresh after skipping Super Saturday. Sharp Azteca seems well found in the betting and i will be against it at 2/1 as it is going to need to go faster early on than it ever has to lead the selection and it could break its heart. Heavy Metal is losing 2-0 to North America this season and it is no coincidence that its one poor effort came when trying to chase North America in the Firebreak Stakes and duly paying the penalty in the final furlong. That said it has won its two subsequent starts and was never as impressive as on Super Saturday. If we can forgive it that one lapse well 8/1 looks tempting in a race only the three should count.
Conclusion North America is by far the most likley winner and 2/1 is OK but Heavy Metal looks better value overall at 8/1 as for all of Sharp Azteca's ability it has questions to answer around here in a race where all the recent winners have climbed the ranks from the outset of the carnival making experience of the venue vital.
1250pm Dubai Gold Cup
This looks the deepest renewal i can remember of this race with plenty holding claims. Vazirabad is rightfully favourite but looks no value at 2/1 despite winning the race last season off the plane and having a Prep this year. Big Orange is likely to set the gallop and should be tracked by Quest For More leading to a true run contest. Both of these have claims along with Beautiful Romance which won the Trial race but has another two furlongs to go here and probably had an edge in fitness over the favourite. Sheik Zayed Road will benefit from the faster gallop here and the return of Harley to the saddle so cant be discounted and throw Melbourne Gold Cup runner up Heartbreak City into the mix and it looks set to be a well contested event.
Conclusion A deep renewal where plenty have chances with Big Orange 8/1 and Quest For More 9/1 possibly the value in a race i wouldn't be in a rush to play.
125pm UAE Derby
This really does look a tough race to work out with the majority of the big players unproven over the trip but nothing to suggest they won't get it. Thunder Snow was hugely impressive on its Meydan debut and combined with a solid juvenile campaign it must be high on all shortlists but it got a great trip that day and is drawn 13 here so it wont have things easy. Epicharis is 4-4 on the dirt and a Japanese horse (Lani) won this last season so it must be respected but there would have to be some guess work attached to take 6/1 with similar comments applying to the lightly raced Master Plan who benefitted from the application of blinkers the last day. Up in trip here it remains to be seen if they will have the same effect. Lancaster Bomber done nothing but improve last season culminating with a Breeders Cup second but it got a great run that night covering much less ground than his rivals.Fawree is the enigma as it definitely has the ability to win but whether it will handle the prelims given the huge crowds and the stalls remains to be seen as it is so mentally fragile. It is the one i like if it gets away on terms.
Conclusion Thunder Snow is the corrrect favourite but given the unknowns about so many of the runners improving for the trip etc it is another race i can sit and watch. Fawree is the one horse i am most looking forward to seeing so hopefully it gets away in one piece.
2pm Al Quoz Sprint
Even allowing for the extra furlong here i still expect Ertijaal to confirm itself a real top sprinter and have these cooked by the furlong pole. It must be remembered it is a 3 time winner over 7 furlongs during its career . It looks better than these and a big help is that Limato is drawn away from the real speed with Baccarat stands side and that will make life tough for them. Jungle Cat is entitled to get closer to the selection here over this trip especially after bolting up on Super Saturday but it may be stretching things to suggest it can reverse form. The aforementioned Limato is a class act and must be respected but this will be a tough ask trying to tack over from stands side with the track fully extended. Amazing Kids can go well but on balance doesn't look good enough.
Conclusion Many will want to take Ertijaal on over this trip but i won't be one of them and am firmly in its camp and am happy to be against Limato with Jungle Cat the one to follow home the selection. Ertijaal fair at 7/4.
235pm Golden Shaheen
I have played this race strongly with Cool Cowboy 7/1-Muarrab 10/1. Initially i was expecting to be with Mind Your Biscuits but that one has the draw from hell considering it can race sluggishly early on and is stall 15 and to make things worse Comicas is drawn right beside it and all it does is hang right so i have to be against it now despite it lookig the best horse in the race. St Joe Bay is likely to be held wide from stall 11 and it also looks poor value on form to date. Provided the connections dispense with the crazy tactics of holding up Muarrab and let it do its own thing it is a massive runner to bag the rails and really put it up to these and that should give Cool Cowboy a good tow into the race and possibly get on top close home. This race could pan out rails to middle and these are the two to concentrate on given they haven't shown their true form this season due to circumstances. My Catch may have had problems as it has ben off 100 days but if fully tuned up 20/1 would be big and it is likley to keep those dawn outside of it wide.
Conclusion With the big dangers drawn in the car park play the front running Muarrab and the closer Cool Cowboy drawn low. The front two look beatable where they are drawn.
330pm Dubai Turf
Ribchester comes here without a prep run but is sure to be fit and ready to go and with this step up in trip looking the natural progression it looks the one to beat after a most progressive 3 yo campaign when it took in all the big group 1s. Zarak looks a danger but priced accordingly after bolting up in its prep race over 10 although it travelled off a slow pace that night like it would have little difficulty dropping back to 9.Mutakayyef is sporting cheek pieces here (wore blinkers once before it was gelded) and looks to have its chance but it cant be a positive that it missed its prep run at Lingfield a few weeks ago. On balance it looks poor value against the front 2. Very Special isn't near these in terms of class but ran well in this race last season when beaten 3 lens and 50/1 is probably too big while the front running Heshem at 25/1 also looks big despite being beaten at short odds in its prep run.
Conclusion Ribchester isn't massive value at 3/1 but is worth a bet and rates the most likely winner and should be favourite in my book while Heshem makes a modicum of appeal at 25/1.
405pm Dubai Sheema Classic
Highland Reel a huge improver throughout last season looks a bet here at 9/2 as it can make all. It was left short of fitness in this race last season but i doubt that will be an issue here and with doubts about the front 2 it is a decent bet. Postponed looks one to oppose at the prices coming here on the back of two poor efforts given its form in the first half of last season. Coupled with the reported problems it has had i will be against it. Jack Hobbs seems to be well fancied but bearing in mind its well reported issues last season and now sporting blinkers now as a 5 year old itwouldn't bode well especially at a top price 9/2. Seventh Heaven has her conditions but would need a career best to figure here at the business end. Prize Money has had a great carnival but this may be a step too far.
Conclusion Highland Reel looks a strong bet at 9/2 to make all and expose the chinks in the market leaders.
445pm Dubai World Cup
Arrogate's form looks on a different level to these and it should win easily coupled with the fact the horse only made its debut last April it is still open to more improvemnet which is scary.From its decent draw and with the application of a Tongue Tie the much improved Gun Runner looks the one to chase it home as it will race handily and and has been finishing its races off better lately. Long River could run well from a low draw at 66/1 but a place is the best it can hope for while Mubtaahij looks to have a huge task from stall 14 along with Special Fighter in 13.
Conclusion On all known form Arrogate should win easily with Gun Runner the one to look at in the betting without market on the day with possibly Long River at a price.
Last edit: 8 years 2 months ago by davetheflower.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bob Brogan, Magi
