Is it good to think to know too much???
- rob faux
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months agoBob Brogan wrote: Rob I shouldn't really ask you this, but are your ratings a more accurate guide than the official ratings ?
Bob,as its not an exact science sometimes opinions differ,so the answer is "sometimes"
The differences usually eminate from one of 2 reasons
a) officials are subject to capping rules
b)handicappers have to handicap every race and some races should ideally be ignored (I am sure that the handicappers would rather ignore some races)......the race that Fortissimus earned its 92 was full of contradictions IMO and became an ???? for me.
(I would hate the job as trying to justify ratings must sometimes be a nightmare)
In this instance ,a mate phoned to ask if he could have a maximum bet due to ratings.........pleased I was able to convince him not to.
Last edit: 8 years 8 months ago by rob faux.
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- Dave Scott
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago
Well rob I always knew u know more than me so thanks for at least a valid explanation
Cheers
D
Cheers
D
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- rob faux
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months agoDave Scott wrote: Well rob I always knew u know more than me so thanks for at least a valid explanation
Cheers
D
Not a case of knowing more .............I just keep a critical eye on MR's!
(Apologies .....I had her rated 84 (not 70) .......but just enough to worry!)
Last edit: 8 years 8 months ago by rob faux.
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- Frodo
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago
All we can do as 'outsiders' is to 'analyze' to the best of our ability, and then it is up to the racing gods - horses make fools of us on any given day, whether you are 'in the know' or not :ohmy:
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- heinrich
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months agorob faux wrote:Bob Brogan wrote: Rob I shouldn't really ask you this, but are your ratings a more accurate guide than the official ratings ?
Bob,as its not an exact science sometimes opinions differ,so the answer is "sometimes"
The differences usually eminate from one of 2 reasons
a) officials are subject to capping rules
b)handicappers have to handicap every race and some races should ideally be ignored (I am sure that the handicappers would rather ignore some races)......the race that Fortissimus earned its 92 was full of contradictions IMO and became an ???? for me.
(I would hate the job as trying to justify ratings must sometimes be a nightmare)
In this instance ,a mate phoned to ask if he could have a maximum bet due to ratings.........pleased I was able to convince him not to.
I always take note when you talk abt MR.Trying to see if I can learn something new from you from a post,ect. What I have learned abt ratings is that most cases(and races) its a very good idea to totally ignore them,especially if knowledge of it is as little as mine.Maybe you can do a write up abt MR for us dummies Rob? I'm sure it would help a lot of us out:)
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- heinrich
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months agoFrodo wrote: All we can do as 'outsiders' is to 'analyze' to the best of our ability, and then it is up to the racing gods - horses make fools of us on any given day, whether you are 'in the know' or not :ohmy:
True Fro do,but analizing SA racing we are always up against it with all the problems associated with Sa racing.So in the end,we are forced to rely on luck much more with SA Racing. If you really want to test your skills,I would recommend giving HK a go...its a REAL challenge and 'fair' 99% of the time.
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- rob faux
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months agoheinrich wrote:rob faux wrote:Bob Brogan wrote: Rob I shouldn't really ask you this, but are your ratings a more accurate guide than the official ratings ?
Bob,as its not an exact science sometimes opinions differ,so the answer is "sometimes"
The differences usually eminate from one of 2 reasons
a) officials are subject to capping rules
b)handicappers have to handicap every race and some races should ideally be ignored (I am sure that the handicappers would rather ignore some races)......the race that Fortissimus earned its 92 was full of contradictions IMO and became an ???? for me.
(I would hate the job as trying to justify ratings must sometimes be a nightmare)
In this instance ,a mate phoned to ask if he could have a maximum bet due to ratings.........pleased I was able to convince him not to.
I always take note when you talk abt MR.Trying to see if I can learn something new from you from a post,ect. What I have learned abt ratings is that most cases(and races) its a very good idea to totally ignore them,especially if knowledge of it is as little as mine.Maybe you can do a write up abt MR for us dummies Rob? I'm sure it would help a lot of us out:)
Heinrich ,I can honestly say (and all the guys who do ratings will confirm I'm sure ) that there is nothing clever about the arithmetic of handicapping .......everybody on this forum could learn the adjustments in minutes rather than hours,and the handicapping guidelines on the NHA website explain it clearly.Its the time it takes that is the issue!
The variables are some of the factors that individuals might apply due to their own opinions on things (for instance my patterns show me I must adjust for "after a rest",and "2nd run after a rest")......but some will disagree!
Also,as stated before ,it is nice to be unhindered by rules and to be able to ignore certain races.
In my favour is that,having no other job, I have plenty time for racing and therefore I can allocate lots of time.
Last edit: 8 years 8 months ago by rob faux.
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- heinrich
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago
Agree Rob,don't get me wrong,I fully understand the handicapping rules as best as most out there,but I always get the feeling you know more than us and the handicappers lol.I seldom use ratings in my studies,but I figure using them might improve my selections thats why I asked.Thanks a lot for the reply. In a way ratings is important,coz I spend abt 5-7hrs a day watching replays and making notes,and without knowing it,I actually give my own 'MR' to those I mark...but never actually put it down to a number! Thanks thou.
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- rob faux
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago - 8 years 8 months agoheinrich wrote: Agree Rob,don't get me wrong,I fully understand the handicapping rules as best as most out there,but I always get the feeling you know more than us and the handicappers lol.I seldom use ratings in my studies,but I figure using them might improve my selections thats why I asked.Thanks a lot for the reply. In a way ratings is important,coz I spend abt 5-7hrs a day watching replays and making notes,and without knowing it,I actually give my own 'MR' to those I mark...but never actually put it down to a number! Thanks thou.
I would guess that well over 80% of horses I just use the official ratings as I am only interested where my rating is significantly different(if official and mine is very close I accept theirs)so I don't keep a record of every horse ....only my exceptions.
As you say ,if you study as much as you do,you are rating as well, but just using a different basis to measure.
In fact,for many years,I used ADJUSTED times and collaterals to study .......but rating using the standard handicap rating model actually combines both together,as it compares horses with each other, whether in the same,or in different,races, using comparitive factors-Took me far too long to appreciate the value of that,so only took advantage of the Race Figure system for far too few years!
(what would be interesting would be to see somebody like Mathew Lips list of ratings versus his official ratings as handicapper............I get the impression that Darryl Maree uses his own handicap ratings as the basis of his analysis too)
The final selections are after adding filters ,biases and very important PATTERNS!
Last edit: 8 years 8 months ago by rob faux.
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- Mac
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago
I used to do my own handicaps, but boy I agree, its a time consuming job. I think I may have a similar algorithm as to what frodo uses, we both like to arrive at double or multiple line horses by discretely increasing the margins of error in steps of 1 pound. But I thought that the mistake I was making was that I was using the official MR's to find the line horse where I should have been using my own ratings and that would have meant even more time so I abandoned it. Furthermore, you have to start from somewhere but that somewhere cannot be the official MR's else what's the point? Some clansmen say "thank heavens" for Sporting Post's Ability Ratings.
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- heinrich
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months agorob faux wrote:heinrich wrote: Agree Rob,don't get me wrong,I fully understand the handicapping rules as best as most out there,but I always get the feeling you know more than us and the handicappers lol.I seldom use ratings in my studies,but I figure using them might improve my selections thats why I asked.Thanks a lot for the reply. In a way ratings is important,coz I spend abt 5-7hrs a day watching replays and making notes,and without knowing it,I actually give my own 'MR' to those I mark...but never actually put it down to a number! Thanks thou.
I would guess that well over 80% of horses I just use the official ratings as I am only interested where my rating is significantly different(if official and mine is very close I accept theirs)so I don't keep a record of every horse ....only my exceptions.
As you say ,if you study as much as you do,you are rating as well, but just using a different basis to measure.
In fact,for many years,I used ADJUSTED times and collaterals to study .......but rating using the standard handicap rating model actually combines both together,as it compares horses with each other, whether in the same,or in different,races, using comparitive factors-Took me far too long to appreciate the value of that,so only took advantage of the Race Figure system for far too few years!
(what would be interesting would be to see somebody like Mathew Lips list of ratings versus his official ratings as handicapper............I get the impression that Darryl Maree uses his own handicap ratings as the basis of his analysis too)
The final selections are after adding filters ,biases and very important PATTERNS!
Totally agree.Racing is all abt patterns!! Trainers use same patterns year in and year out,only thing that differ is the horse's name.Makes for finding value easier if 1 knows some of them.Just have to sit up and take note.
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- heinrich
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Re: Is it good to think to know too much???
8 years 8 months ago
Mac I think the use of a line horse is absolute BS. To me its the pace of the race that matters most and decides whether or not a horse will run well.In many small races,we get well handicapped favs that run off the board or comes in 2nd or 3rd with a 'outsider' winning!!! Than coz that 'outsider' beat a good horse with a decent rating his rating goes up aswell...Most times using a line horse who didn't like the pace of the race,hence not running to his true ability.So the winner will get a false rating.
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