Turffontein Saturday 14/11/15

Iv'e anchored HEAVY METAL for the Victory Moon, should easily dispose of this field IMHO.

It's wonderful to have a bit rain after the recent heat wave but should make difference to the going

I'm off to the Big T today, anyone else going ?

If you can still find the big price on Fidelio in the opener then I reckon it is worth R1 e/w. Don't like the draw but that can also be said of a few. On collateral is fairly close to Mutakayyef. Nutters e/w double with Prudence Prevails in the opener at Ken. Seemed to improve when dropped in trip 2nd time out and some of the collateral would put her in the picture. From Formgrids, the jockey has 5 silvers and 2 bronze in just 9 rides, of those 7 places the SPs have ranged from 9/2 to 16/1. PP currently about 33s I believe. Even if they both run last it is not going to hurt the wallet.

I think the inside draw is against Mutakayyef - so both first timers Chepardo and Leo Zodiac have a chance of beating him imo

Race 2 is not as clear cut as the betting suggests - Move Like Jagger imo prefers the Vaal straight; Rough Justice is suspect over the 1400; Street Flyer ran a good race behind Diesel Jet last time, but has a wide draw and is held on by King and Empire on maiden form; at official ratings On the Nod is out at the weights, but is better over 1400 and has the draw, so not without chance in a very open contest

R3: Another open looking handicap; old timer Henry Higgins not that consistent these days, but holds many on exposed form, so can easily win this if he can run to his best form again; Orchestrated is held by HH on a run over 1700 at the Vaal in February and in turn holds Alghadeer on a run on New Year's Day - however Alghadeer as the younger horse looks to have improved since then, but not a lot between him and Counterstroke (who subsequently was easily beaten by Jolie Roger and Candy Rock) - then there is also Diesel Jet who may prefer shorter and Smart Mart who may prefer further - very tough race imo

R4: Not getting any easier - Trip Advisor holds Virtuality and Supa-U on collateral form - but the inside draw not in her favor; Princess Pear has the outside draw and only ran 1 length behind the capable Sharp Princess and only 1.4 lengths behind Easy Street in the maidens - so looks great value imo at 25/1

R5: Yet another competitive handicap - not a lot between Majestic Bay, Front Rank and Light the Way, so LtW at the odds must be the value for the winning jock from yesterday - I see Mootahadee is finding betting support but I'm not convinced about his turf form; little separating Raise the REd and Mr mulliner on their last runs, so either include them both or leave them both - interesting runner imo is Lock Him Up who ran Prince of Orange to 2 lengths giving him 3 kg's - chance if ready after a long break - again not easy

R6: Carry on Alice should prove hard to beat, but if she is not right on top of her game I think Little Genie is going to make her work hard - Lady Al right at the bottom of the weights looks place value with Twilight Tiger imo

R7: Stated my case earlier - Heavy Metal was good value at 10's - the other Tarry runner Whiteline Fever not without a chance on the Greyville 1900 run, but has the tougher draw and may also be at best over slightly shorter - Deo Juventus and Ahlaam probably the safe option to include in the PA

R8: Repeating myself - this is a tough fillies and mares handicap - perhaps Zrinski can finally realize her potential under Superman - but plenty looking to benefit should she fail again - imo these include Cassie O'Malley, Withbatedbreath, She's a Looker, Party Magic and Eliza Doolittle

R9: Provided the jock is half decent, I think Matsuri has lots going for her - but again there are quite a few to be considered here - so I'm taking a chance on her.

Enjoy

This Laird 1st timer will have to be a once in a lifetime special, almost freakish horse

i think you hit the nail on the head with this horse

Race 1 winner has a big Future over further

Good start to your write up. Good reading.

Frodo wrote: I think the inside draw is against Mutakayyef - so both first timers Chepardo and Leo Zodiac have a chance of beating him imo

Race 2 is not as clear cut as the betting suggests - Move Like Jagger imo prefers the Vaal straight; Rough Justice is suspect over the 1400; Street Flyer ran a good race behind Diesel Jet last time, but has a wide draw and is held on by King and Empire on maiden form; at official ratings On the Nod is out at the weights, but is better over 1400 and has the draw, so not without chance in a very open contest

R3: Another open looking handicap; old timer Henry Higgins not that consistent these days, but holds many on exposed form, so can easily win this if he can run to his best form again; Orchestrated is held by HH on a run over 1700 at the Vaal in February and in turn holds Alghadeer on a run on New Year's Day - however Alghadeer as the younger horse looks to have improved since then, but not a lot between him and Counterstroke (who subsequently was easily beaten by Jolie Roger and Candy Rock) - then there is also Diesel Jet who may prefer shorter and Smart Mart who may prefer further - very tough race imo

R4: Not getting any easier - Trip Advisor holds Virtuality and Supa-U on collateral form - but the inside draw not in her favor; Princess Pear has the outside draw and only ran 1 length behind the capable Sharp Princess and only 1.4 lengths behind Easy Street in the maidens - so looks great value imo at 25/1

R5: Yet another competitive handicap - not a lot between Majestic Bay, Front Rank and Light the Way, so LtW at the odds must be the value for the winning jock from yesterday - I see Mootahadee is finding betting support but I'm not convinced about his turf form; little separating Raise the REd and Mr mulliner on their last runs, so either include them both or leave them both - interesting runner imo is Lock Him Up who ran Prince of Orange to 2 lengths giving him 3 kg's - chance if ready after a long break - again not easy

R6: Carry on Alice should prove hard to beat, but if she is not right on top of her game I think Little Genie is going to make her work hard - Lady Al right at the bottom of the weights looks place value with Twilight Tiger imo

R7: Stated my case earlier - Heavy Metal was good value at 10's - the other Tarry runner Whiteline Fever not without a chance on the Greyville 1900 run, but has the tougher draw and may also be at best over slightly shorter - Deo Juventus and Ahlaam probably the safe option to include in the PA

R8: Repeating myself - this is a tough fillies and mares handicap - perhaps Zrinski can finally realize her potential under Superman - but plenty looking to benefit should she fail again - imo these include Cassie O'Malley, Withbatedbreath, She's a Looker, Party Magic and Eliza Doolittle

R9: Provided the jock is half decent, I think Matsuri has lots going for her - but again there are quite a few to be considered here - so I'm taking a chance on her.

Enjoy

Move Like Jagger has run to much, much stronger than he takes on today, runs anywhere near that last effort and he should go close to winning.

Street Flyer to hopefully overcome the draw, exacta with Move Like Jagger

Everybody backs alghadeer and Simon comes home on Smart Mart, my thinking, Matthew wasn't confident even though Julie liked it last time, wasn't far off then i'll take the game, won over 1800 by 4lengths last time..

At the weight turn-around with Alghadeer, Counterstroke must be worth a punt at 8/1.