Vaal Sand 4/8/14

Winning Form & Magic Tips Best Bets - Vaal Sand

rob faux wrote:

Craig Pienaar wrote: Two questions for those who understand this a bit better than me
Race 2 Jade Bay with a rating of 105 is so well in at weights, c&d suited shouldn't it be odds on?
Race 3 Tayba appears to be well in with all except jackodore but why has Tiqer Quest sand rating dropped from 105 to 90?

Craig, as we know racing is about opinion but IRO of Jade Bay, I see the value threshold at 7/10 so yes I think it should be odds on!! and therefore have already backed it!

How do you see the race being run? Will he be very fast early on or settled with the pace? What do you see as the threat if he adopts the former ?

colors wrote:

rob faux wrote:

Craig Pienaar wrote: Two questions for those who understand this a bit better than me
Race 2 Jade Bay with a rating of 105 is so well in at weights, c&d suited shouldn't it be odds on?
Race 3 Tayba appears to be well in with all except jackodore but why has Tiqer Quest sand rating dropped from 105 to 90?

Craig, as we know racing is about opinion but IRO of Jade Bay, I see the value threshold at 7/10 so yes I think it should be odds on!! and therefore have already backed it!

How do you see the race being run? Will he be very fast early on or settled with the pace? What do you see as the threat if he adopts the former ?

He will be very quick through the first 600m, probably go well clear and then tamely fade the last 100m but will have enough to get past the post, it's how he wins all his races.

Winning_Post wrote:

colors wrote:

rob faux wrote:

Craig Pienaar wrote: Two questions for those who understand this a bit better than me
Race 2 Jade Bay with a rating of 105 is so well in at weights, c&d suited shouldn't it be odds on?
Race 3 Tayba appears to be well in with all except jackodore but why has Tiqer Quest sand rating dropped from 105 to 90?

Craig, as we know racing is about opinion but IRO of Jade Bay, I see the value threshold at 7/10 so yes I think it should be odds on!! and therefore have already backed it!

How do you see the race being run? Will he be very fast early on or settled with the pace? What do you see as the threat if he adopts the former ?

He will be very quick through the first 600m, probably go well clear and then tamely fade the last 100m but will have enough to get past the post, it's how he wins all his races.

This is your ticket to collect on Jade Bay and you can fill the balance in... Stake ?????/Win 9/10

Worth taking a double with Radio Waves, Mr. Sarkis's other runner today - should win easily

Good luck to the owners!! and good luck to all the clanners with runners today!

Never can get Fransie right but im looking for some value in Orlando 15/10 or better

Morning all

playing a small patent today - Benbow x Cerise silk x Orlando magic (e/w)

can someone give me a place bet in the last race??

Race 1 - Nkomo has yet to place from 11 starts but not too bad in 4 starts this surface.

10l or so behind in last 2 c & d starts were in better fields and could finally place today.

Race 2 - If all run to their ratings Jade Bay will win. Only slight concern is the travel to Durban and back.

Race 3 - Tayba hasn't looked at her best this campaign and this also looks too short.

I'm going for Tiger Quest .

Race 4 - Intandokazi ran well this surface but too short in the betting. Tough Tiger looks the improver coming out of a strong race and is my selection.

Race 5 - Sabadell should improve from an inside draw but probably will need another run.

Race 8 - Elegant Parade looks better than a MR 58 but question over this distance.

At first look, some races seem quite straight forward but there are definitely some questions to be answered so expecting to be scratching my head a few times today! lol Especially with the track and recent results, I can't approach these meetings with confidence currently but...

R1 All Jammed Up (but maybe short for this horse, shock could well be on the cards, Nkomo perhaps but has failed to last this d previously and WR's notoriously go too quick, Foretoken is perhaps more likely, jockey bookings last run to this run noted. Return OTR shown little but not far off FAF with blinkers and again noted jockey change).

R2 Jade Bay (played small doubles with others on this one at Evs, would not at 1/2!) x Salute The Sun x Chief Sioux

R3 Partly through a process of elimination I am with Tayba but that process always concerns me a little. Tiger Quest probably the biggest danger but a shock again no surprise, the two LG horses could be the likeliest to cause it.

R4 Intandokazi... good effort only sand run. Tough Tiger, nothing in the breeding suggests to me will take to the sand and though winners have come from that last run, I don't think from memory any are likely to be stars... the jockey booking of Lerena though makes me think he will perform better than my other "indicators" imply. Crew could improve on the surface. General Custer not the most consistent and from the 2 draw could be thereabouts.

R5 Shadow Line, had excuses last time but prior to that impressive. Comes off a short break but I think the one they have to beat. Radio Waves likely to be the benefactor if SL not at his best and Stavinksy in the vicinty.

R6 I'll stick with Chedwin Park who has been in good form of late. Plenty possibles... Son Of Approval, Bah and Creative Stripe the most likely challengers.

R7 Midnite Spirit could well win with Striker up. Interesting to me though that Lerena was up lto, was he offered again or did the trainer go straight to PS? Lerena on Spring Blaster who must have a chance but I'll go with the consistent Besame Mucho who is much better drawn than the other two and is 1-1-1 in her 3 c/d runs.

R8. Killer!! lol Olympic Spring has to enter equations given her c/d record, just concerned she may be a little over-raced recently. Imperial Empress I have gone with a few times and will stick with. Breathless respected and Terra Marriana a possible big danger, ran IE and OS close on only sand run and seems to have improved with blinkers in last two runs but the extra 200 a concern for me. Value... I've done her before and been disappointed but I will give Orlando Magic another nibble.

Be(s)t of luck to all

Craig Pienaar wrote: Two questions for those who understand this a bit better than me
Race 2 Jade Bay with a rating of 105 is so well in at weights, c&d suited shouldn't it be odds on?
Race 3 Tayba appears to be well in with all except jackodore but why has Tiqer Quest sand rating dropped from 105 to 90?

Re Jade Bay, for me the shorter the trip, the less relevant the term 'well in at the weights' becomes - as suggested JB will blitz to the front, but Gavin will need to judge it just right in order for him to hang on.

Interesting observation on Tiger Quest, I see in her penultimate run on the sand in October last year (3rd behind Extraordinaire) she was rated 89; 3 wins in a row on the turf saw her rating go up to 105 - and then she kept that rating for her next run on the sand; I'm guessing the connections appealed that rating and she has now been dropped to he previous sand rating?

All in all an interesting card imo - few roughies that could throw a spanner in the works imo include Jackodore in the 3rd (could run well fresh over the 1000), Sukomouros in the 4th (likes the sand - well at least more than he likes the turf), Cerise Silk and Creative Stripe in the 6th and 2 real roughies in the last - Princess Faul and French Approval

Best bet imo Shadow Line - if reproducing his penultimate will murder this field

Enjoy

R2 3 JADE BAY
R3 3 TIGER QUEST
R4 1 SUKOMOROS
R5 2 SHADOW LINE
R6 3 BOLT OF LIGHT/5 SON OF APPROVAL
R7 7 MIDNITE SPIRIT/1 LADT CASEY
R8 4 IMPERIAL EMPRESS

That was a nice ride, is the jock related to Gavin?