Punta Arenas My J and B Met horse

Will collect a big penalty?

Can't ever argue with a winning ticket , but whoever tipped/backed Puntas Arenas, under the conditions, deserves the odd break..lol
That , to me was the only surprise of note:
I have got into trouble before saying I thought Jackson was overrated and too many excuses...same applied to J.explorer and King of Pain.
Ratings said CapeTown Noir would not see out the distance against the best!
I had a few mates around Friday night and inevitably had our own "discussion panel"
I wish I had taken more notice of 1wise man who listened and then said "so you all think it's between Jackson and MOMF"......and then pointed out that Hill54 had both beat on Collaterals, and now had Superman to boot!
Well done to him and easy for all of us AFTERWARDS -

?.....I think Punta was given a peach of ride and stayed out of trouble but was just not good enough to win it.....my fancy KOP again was bustled and taken to the fence early......and did not enjoy it at all......wrong jock.... the horse imo should be allowed to run freelly and not steered like some one trying to parrell park on the rail.....:......CTN does not stay a true run 10 furlong .....was well ridden stayed out of trouble but had nothing to come.....:

Another horse that I think did not stay was Whiteline Fever, he was given a very good ride and he didn't quicken.

Watched the race again this morning, can't really find any excuse for anything - which makes Punta Arena's effort very commendable - the 'best' run of the race imo belongs to Yorker - showed that he is not just a very good handicapper, but a Gr 1 horse - Whiteline Fever again just failed to see out the final 200m

Regarding CTN, he seemed to see out the Daily News last year - can't recall the pace of that race, but have to agree that on Sat he did not seem to see out what in the end was a testing 2000 due to Anton really making them run

Frodo Wrote:

---

>
> Regarding CTN, he seemed to see out the Daily News
> last year - can't recall the pace of that race,
> but have to agree that on Sat he did not seem to
> see out what in the end was a testing 2000 due to
> Anton really making them run

That Daily News 2000 was full of range bound sorts and if all the horses were not suited there had to be a winner runner up and other close ups......No Worries also was given every chance and looked the part on Saturday also flattened out in the last 200m......:S

Frodo Wrote:

---

> Watched the race again this morning, can't really
> find any excuse for anything - which makes Punta
> Arena's effort very commendable - the 'best' run
> of the race imo belongs to Yorker - showed that he
> is not just a very good handicapper, but a Gr 1
> horse - Whiteline Fever again just failed to see
> out the final 200m
>
> Regarding CTN, he seemed to see out the Daily News
> last year - can't recall the pace of that race,
> but have to agree that on Sat he did not seem to
> see out what in the end was a testing 2000 due to
> Anton really making them run

Frodo ,if you look at that Daily News in hindsight,Vercintorex has to have run below best to be anything!
That race was always suspect IMO.
I remember posting CTN a 107 in and after that race.................still about right in my book!

(For me KoP has had 2x as many excuses as reasonable ........way overrated in my book!)

.....I would not write off King Of Pain.....for me he falls into the capable but unpredictable category.....does not look like an easy ride and thus is scrubbed and bustled to stay in touch.....hope he gets to go to KZN for the up coming season and may spring a big surprise in a big race....:

Muhtiman Wrote:

---

> .....I would not write off King Of Pain.....for me
> he falls into the capable but unpredictable
> category.....does not look like an easy ride and
> thus is scrubbed and bustled to stay in
> touch.....hope he gets to go to KZN for the up
> coming season and may spring a big surprise in a
> big race....:

I wrote him off 12 months ago.............and so far saved a fortune!
(Don't get me wrong .....a race will come along that is right for him eventually,but it won't be a group race IMO

3 most costly pitfalls I learnt the hard way;
Falling in love and overrating horses
Following horses
Forgiving horses

The moment you look for reasons to fancy a horse it's easy...........and expensive!

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Watched the race again this morning, can't
> really
> > find any excuse for anything - which makes
> Punta
> > Arena's effort very commendable - the 'best'
> run
> > of the race imo belongs to Yorker - showed that
> he
> > is not just a very good handicapper, but a Gr 1
> > horse - Whiteline Fever again just failed to
> see
> > out the final 200m
> >
> > Regarding CTN, he seemed to see out the Daily
> News
> > last year - can't recall the pace of that race,
> > but have to agree that on Sat he did not seem
> to
> > see out what in the end was a testing 2000 due
> to
> > Anton really making them run
>
> Frodo ,if you look at that Daily News in
> hindsight,Vercintorex has to have run below best
> to be anything!
> That race was always suspect IMO.
> I remember posting CTN a 107 in and after that
> race.................still about right in my
> book!
>
> (For me KoP has had 2x as many excuses as
> reasonable ........way overrated in my book!)


So how do you rate the Met - if as you say CTN ran to a 107, then Hill Fifty Four, Ice Machine. King of Pain etc ran about 4 to 5 points below their ratings (and MomF about 10 points below his) - but still Punte Arenas ran 4 to 5 points above his rating; if we use Hill Fifty Four, Ice Machine and King of Pain as 'line' horses, then CTN ran to his 'official' rating of abt 112 (but then Punta Arenas ran abt 9 to 10 points above his rating) :S

No ,I say CTN ran to a gross 107 in the Derby and the Daily News!.........that makes it about 112 gross now!
.........and yes ,I think Punta Arenas ran 9 points above his rating.................but I will adjust my Book only provisionaly at this stage as I would be surprised if he confirms!

(The advantage we amateur handicappers have is, we only have to be right for ourselves -
Sometimes the best decisions are ignoring runs rather than trying to force ourselves to make sense of them!)

I try to bias towards what I expect as a "next run' rating rather than the questionable exceptions................not an exact science whatever we do...............lol

Rob will you just be watching Vercintorex in Dubai?