Betting percentages

ruffian Wrote:

---

> Getting the right price is EVERYTHING. I wasn't
> calling you naive, just your statement.
> Do you not agree that getting the best price
> possible is important ?

Let me explain what I mean by "for all practical purposes"

If I believe a horse has a 50% chance of winning I know my value threshold is EVENS!
Bookmaker 1 is offering 12/10 but betting to 125% because he is very short on the long shots and Bookmaker is offering 8/10 but betting to 115% because he is betting 100/1 bar 3 for example...................I take the 12/10 and couldn't give a toss what the overall % is..........surely so would everybody.

If the overall percentages were looser, you would get a better price. You would put less stake money on and save a lot of money in the long run.
P.S - I didn't intend to offend, I respect your opinion greatly. I also do my own betting.

ruffian Wrote:

---

> If the overall percentages were looser, you would
> get a better price. You would put less stake money
> on and save a lot of money in the long run.
> P.S - I didn't intend to offend, I respect your
> opinion greatly. I also do my own betting.


No offence taken! The fact is that very few punters or bookmakers bother to fully understand the relationship between chance and odds so I just rely on what I am trying to achieve and try to just snatch every selfish edge I can!
As you no doubt know, : I am a supporter of the introduction of exchanges..........that will sort the men from the boys!

Rob
I also loved the sheer simplicity of an exchange to match two opposing views of people on the planet at whatever price was agreeded and take a percentage from the winner
To me it was the greatest revelation in betting history and just wish I had invented it
If not mistaken John and Gary from Interbet were on the same wavelength as betfair many years ago and I had the pleasure of introducing them at emperors casino many years ago thinking " this time next year Del u will be a millionaire"

Lol

scotia Wrote:

---

> Rob
> I also loved the sheer simplicity of an exchange
> to match two opposing views of people on the
> planet at whatever price was agreeded and take a
> percentage from the winner
> To me it was the greatest revelation in betting
> history and just wish I had invented it
> If not mistaken John and Gary from Interbet were
> on the same wavelength as betfair many years ago
> and I had the pleasure of introducing them at
> emperors casino many years ago thinking " this
> time next year Del u will be a millionaire"
>
> Lol


I agree Dave,I feel the same ............so obvious and simple ,yet brilliant in the vision to see it being embraced so widely.
The only way I can see it ever working in our country though is some form of JV with Betfair cos it's success is so dependant on stable and reliable IT,and we know the problems the local tote and bookie sites have in that regard.
I don't know if you remember Derek Brugmans betting site...........its layout was a copy of the Betfair Bet/Lay exchange platform in appearance..........he was as ready to go as anything we have ever had here! ........then the Natal bookies shut him down ..............I never did get the reason/s

Rob, chance or probability? How about Variance, standard deviation and VI (volatility index).

We can wax lyrical about these very useful statistical terms but I bet you not 99% of the racing fraternity would know variance if it hit them in the ding-ding

Betting %'s is a moot point because the bookies don't take enough money individually in each race to make a proper book, all they do is shorten the money horse but they don't stretch the others proportionately.

We can debate this till we are blue in the face.....never going to change.