VAAL - THURSDAY

Top man as always THH (tu)

Mauri Blue not feature at all in the last though?

Following up on whether a correlation exists between course variations and barrier draw results, the 1000m races for this year were reviewed. It does appear that the higher numbers are more favourable when the ‘going’ is fast/standard whilst the middle to low numbers do better when the track is running slow, (obviously this info is not ‘statistically sound’ as the sample size is very small). The other problem to ‘gleaning useful info’ is that the first race invariably runs faster than the other races and therefore a realistic indication is usually only available after the first 3 races…the (my) standard times in ‘standard conditions’ for today’s races are shown in brackets.

The KGN stable usually have a reasonable amount of success at VS (yet I struggle to ‘catch them’), and have a number of ‘main contenders’ running today.
The STP stable also stepping a few out today and have a good consistent record, especially places. Both of these could have a big day whilst CEE and WHT are also ‘in form’.
In August last year DNS, RRM and SDG all had good results…well above their averages.

Eway treble...
Royal Taska
Shiver’n Shake
Rashaad

Gave Mauri Blue an 89 for his convincing mdn win…always difficult to assess when the field is ‘mediocre’. Main line was through Atlas Grove, and if he ran his ‘best race’ then MB would deserve a 94 making him a main contender.
Following a ‘lean spell’ at VS over the last 2 months SGT came back to his ‘norm’ with a win and two seconds from 5 runners last sand meeting.
As previously indicated patterns of winning again directly after the maiden are rare…over the last year or so 4 x SGT horses have ‘failed’ - yet they were successful with Taptap. The high % of SGT wins are attributable to ‘repeat’ winners such as Across the Ice, Mr.Tobin, Taptap etc.

Tricky, yet a decision is required…going to leave Mauri Blue out of my PA and P6 yet will likely put him in a quartet. As ever shall make that final decision when they go down or if something else ‘feels’ appropriate.

Does anyone know where Taptap is? Thought he would be one of the top sand horses.

hkgk vandag....

As usual some valuable insights from THH and Englander - I do not have time for a detailed race by race analysis today (some would be thankful for small mercys after my diabolical form on Tuesday - but this is sand racing and we don't have to worry about those 6 MR points increases), but just in short:


R2: Royal Taska shortened significantly in the betting and looks hard to beat - only danger could be the sand debutante The Light House

R3: A look at Formgrids tells me that Banjo Bay is the right one here; Sans Limites is not proven over the trip, but has improved in blinkers and the stable is showing signs of life, so must have chance; Wishful Heart could be a threat, but I'm not sure about the form of his last run, while imo both Hobbs Flight and The Bucket Boy (in a very weak field last time) need to do more to feature again

R4: Toughest race on the card imo - load up; Moonriver Magic not to be left out, but slightly skinny at 12/1 imo

R5: Again Formgrids has spoken to me in this race where I think Melli Mou is one of the better bets on the card and not bad value imo

R6: IF Planet Queen can repeat her last run, it will be no race; Figurine (out of the same formline as Melli Mou in the previous) to pick up the pieces if PQ has (another) off day

R7: Not sure that Hangfire is as effective over the 1200 (has one very good run over the trip though); Where's My Chop always thereabouts so an obvious inclusion; Escape Clause well weighted, but has a wide draw - still can't be ignored imo

R8: I'm with THH here; Velddrifter impressive win last time and could still be ahead of the handicapper; Ligeti gets some weight off his back again and could be 2nd best, while I think that Rashaad will improve again for Striker and is my 3rd choice; not sure that Mauri Blue can feature against these.

Enjoy (tu)

Early selections
Race 1 stage attraction pl
Race 3 Banjo bay w
Race 4 Zena's own ew
Race 5 Sioux she ew
Race 6 Favourite daughter ew
Race 7 Defender of peace ew

My daugters name is Zenia so I will to a double Zena's own onto favourite daughter.

Winning Form & Magic Tips Best Bets - Vaal

Why when they put up the Bettingworld value bet am I always disappointed and think I have to look at the race again when they put up one that I was quite strong on? :S Anyone know how often it comes in because I can't remember it ever winning!! lol