SUPER 15 BETTING

RG, unfortunately Beale got injured but should still have enough power for the Cheetahs.

Craig - 6/10 seems inordinately short for the Sharks.

You will notice that the market seldom puts up 9/10 the pair any longer - an evaluation which is often merited. I think there are a number of reasons for this :

Punters are conditioned into believing that favourites win more often than they actually do. We all know that in horse racing about 30% - 35% of favourites win. So given the combination of winning favourites and the odds of other runners it might be a relatively sound strategy to NEVER back a favourite. ( Oh! But that might make you akin to a bookmaker...... )

The next problem with 9/10 the pair is that half time betting and, to a lesser extent, 'in running' betting has become more popular. It certainly offers the opportunity to be over round on a match. Bookmakers generally prefer you to take a price and then live or die with it while they maneouvre around it.

Having said all of that - there is no reason why the Sharks cannot win. But the market has attempted to anticipate for whom the money might come - hence the tight price on the Sharks.

shrek Wrote:

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> ATC this weekend: Chiefs, Stormers, Highlanders,
> Waratahs, Sharks, Rebels = 8/1
>
> Rebels best this weekend. Cheetahs always come out
> strong 1st game overseas (beat Tahs 20-3 last
> year) before getting progressivly worse and the
> Rebels for me are better than the Brumbies with
> O'Connor controlling the game. Take Rebels at -6
> on the Handicap.


So far, so good(tu)

Force by 1! Eish. What an upset. Show's you that you can't write any team 'off'

Very difficult game this to predict

scotia Wrote:

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> Very difficult game this to predict

I can assure you that the Bulls won't lose this week-end and collect 4 points:D

What bookie is taking bets ? Lol

scotia Wrote:

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> Very difficult game this to predict


I'm sure we would have many more favorites arrive in two-horse races in horseracing as compared to Super 15 rugby

Good weekend for South Africa

I thought the Sharks were very good

scotia Wrote:

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> I thought the Sharks were very good

I suspect your pocket talking here, Scotia!

Sharks leaked 17 points with a full side and a gale force wind behind their backs.

They needed the opposition to lose their flyhalf ( 1 miss out of 25. The missed shot fell short because of the wind ) and then also his replacement thereafter. The Reds also successfully defended the tryline with 14 men ( only themselves to blame for the yellow card ) and stayed in the play with their scrumhalf at flyhalf and a hotchpotch of a rejigged backline.

From a betting perspective this was actually an easy match for the punter:

I suggested in the preview that 14/10 Reds was too good to ignore ante-post. You simply had to clench your ring and punt the Sharks when they were trailing 0-17 to be over round on the match.

Garrick given up betting on rugby, well at least until next week.