Final Field - Rising Sun Gold Challenge

Saksy Wrote:

---

> If Bravura finishes within 5 lengths of the winner
> he is home and hosed in the July as far as Im
> concerned.
>
> What the fark is Buy and Sell doing in this
> field?! Will he be racing with a walking stick?!


if and its a big if bravura is back to best he will win the july in a common canter

PM is a great miler/1800m race horse, probably the best in the land. I'm just concerned about his ability to stay a true run longer distance race. The Met cannot be used as a yard stick imo as the pace was farcical at the beginning and he sprinted clear with 600m to run.

Having said that you don't need to be a mile and a 1/2 horse to win the July. In fact milers have won this race before so PM certainly has a big chance anyway!

Pace can make or kill a race.....this year will be no different!

Got to agree with Tommy - PM hard to beat in the Challenge (would have loved to see Pierre Jourdan in the race), but the July trip might find him out - for me there are too many unknowns at this stage to have a July fancy - after tomorrow the picture should be a bit clearer.

Agree with Tero

Castlethorpe and Bravura to fight out the finish with Castlethorpe getting the nod.

Frodo Wrote:

---

> Got to agree with Tommy - PM hard to beat in the
> Challenge (would have loved to see Pierre Jourdan
> in the race), but the July trip might find him out
> - for me there are too many unknowns at this stage
> to have a July fancy - after tomorrow the picture
> should be a bit clearer.

And is it clearer? Not to me, it isn't.:S

I did say 'a bit' clearer - I think we have learnt (apart from the fact that I can't tip a winner in a hare and tortoise race) that Solo Traveller does not stay (pretty much as I expected), The Apache's win in the Dingaan's was not a fluke (I thought it was), Greyville is not a problem for Run For It (although he is probably better on 'galloping; tracks). What is still patently unclear is how Igugu shapes up to the colts (and how the younger horses shape up to the older ones) - and we are not going to find the answers before the July (perhaps the Cup Trial can give an indication - at least regarding the question about the younger and older horses)

As I mentioned in another thread, the weights in the July will be a huge factor

The july is not a handicap anymore as the weights have been compressed . colts and geldings carry a minimum of 53 and the females a min of 52kg's .

As things stand run for it will carry 56kg's The apache will carry the same weight as Run for it assuming he receives a penalty for the daily news win .

The 3yo's which finished 3rd 4th and 5th in the daily news will all get penalized and will carry between 54,5 and 56 kg's .
Dekocks Galileos destiny will carry 53kg's along with Perana(but i don't think he will make it in the final field unless he runs a good race in the cup trial ).

Super storm will carry 53kg's

PAST MASTER (60kg's)

IGUGU (AUS) 56kg's if she gets a 2 point penalty for saturday . 55kg's if she does not !

BIG CITY LIFE 59,5 kg's

DANCEWITHTHEDEVIL 59kg's

CAPTAIN'S WILD (4G) 56,5 kg's

FLIRTATION (4F) 54,5kg's

HAPPY LANDING (4G) 56kg's

EMERALD COVE 53,5 kg's

BRAVURA (4G) 57,5 kgs

PIERRE JOURDAN 57,5 kg's

LION IN WINTER (4G) 56,5 kg's

IL SAGGIATORE (AUS) 53kg's


CASTLETHORPE (AUS) 53kg's

BULSARA (4G) 55kg's


M'LORDS THROAT 53kg's


Imo the weights are very compressed and nothing really looks really well handicapped at the moment barring Galileos destiny .

Igugu may have run a slower daily news than the colts but her oaks time was far better than the derby . At weight for age she would match strides with the colts but oh handicap terms i don't know !

The money for Berry blaze on saturday could suggest that Igugu was not fully tuned for her race , if so then she will have a lot more to come in the july .

The only bets i have on the race at present are places on Black wing .He ran a cracker on saturday but i dont know if he can go an extra 200m and have more hope than confidence in him running a place .

Galileos Destiny i make my early pick purely taking into account Mdk's strategy to avoid meeting his 3yo peers in the daily news to avoid a penalty .He has been a bridesmaid on many occasions but now in the care of mdk he will improve by at least 2 lengths .
It would not suprise me if he ends up close to favourite come race day .If he does end up favourite then history will be against him as mdk has won the race with the lesser fancied of his runners in the past .

enough dribble from me .........now someone tip me the july winner cause i is confused and have a poor record in the race having bet Grey's inn( by mistake ) and london news in all my punting years .

Why everyone gone off Bulsara..if he wins hes in..and i think im right not sure..but no penaltty??

You can have 50/1 Bulsara Oscar

Bulsara for the July? You must be joking.

I don't understand why everyones getting so carried away with Igugu's time. She had to set her own pace for a large portion of the race as none of the other fillies wanted to take it up. She wouldn't have had anything left in the tank if she went too quickly.

All the runners bar M'Lords Throat would have finished in front of Igugu based on her time and for that reason its a pretty meaningless comparison as I certainly don't believe Igugu would have finished second last if she ran with the colts.

Theres really is no hard and fast rule when it comes to colts and fillies. There have been plenty top class fillies over the years who have drilled the best colts in big races all over the world. The sex allowance evens things up anyway and the bottom line sometimes you get fillies that are just too good. If Delpech says Igugu is the best filly he's ever sat on then that says something, I don't hear any of the other jocks getting too excited about the colts...

Igugu was super impressive and was cruising all the way. Remember Ipi tombe only raced with fillies before the july. Ironically she also won the woolavington.

Igugu set her own pace and geared down the last 150 meters, the Daily News was a hard run race. Delpech would also surely not want Igugu to win by 10 lenghts (if she could) as she would incur a large penalty. Her times in both the 1800 meter Classic and 2450 Oaks / Derby at Turffontein were quicker than the boys. Her biggest plus is she is versatile and can run from the front or off the pace. The weights and draws will be interesting but the July is shaping up to be a very competitive race with, like Frodo said, several unanswered questions going in to it.