We have Laurel Canyon trying her luck in the 'lucky last' today; not the strongest of fields, but we meet Powerofone's hard knocking mare Qui Duel (a 4 time winner who is at best over this trip) at level weights, and also it is a bit of a 'look-see' to find out if LC will stay the 1450; so 6/1 is really a bit short imo. Laurel tries the blinkers again, but I am not convinced that they have actually improved her (although the trainer thinks they have). So really no confidence from my side - but that is not to say that she can't win.
Thoughts on the rest of of a very difficult card imo:
R1: Eldorado probably the right one - and one of the better bets on the day imo
R2: Competitive (another case of a horse being claimed and then scratched:S); I saw All Fun at the stables earlier in the week and she is really a lovely looking filly; should see out the trip and shapes up as floater if one is taking a trifecta and/or quartet; lots of others with chances
R3: Two Spectrum colts at the top of the boards; imo the Spectrum's are more effective on sand, so I would not fall off my chair should both of them run unplaced; still Strike a Light ran well behind King's Entourage (a winner again since), so should feature again in a weakish field; D G's Boy finished 6 lenghts behind Eldorado last time, but should place again in this field, while Valmorne is fancied according to Mr Azzie on USO
R4: Not easy, Rudi Rocks probably good enough to place at least,but this race has 'train smash' written all over it imo - both of Happy Landing's wins have been on soft tracks - load up in the P6
R5: Kapow the right one on form, but a wide draw could prove a problem; as pointed out by 2cents on this morning's USO, Sacred Feminine could well improve again over the 1200 and has the benefit of a good draw, and Southern Lights has chance as well - not too much else in the race imo
R6: Very open handicap; money for September Wind, who ran a great race last time, but he has a tough draw; obvious chances to Jet Jamboree and Tender Twilight, while First Up runs on well and could also feature. I think one can put a line through Speed Keeper's last run in the soft, and he could place - not easy
R7: Another open handicap - and fillies to boot, but 4 runners stand out imo. Straight form suggests that Follow the Piper holds Carey's Qui, but CQ has improved a lot recently, while it could be argued that FtP has not (although a saddle slip in her last run could mean that she is better than that run); Pure SIlver likes this trip and also comes into the race with Jewel of the Nile
R8: Fillies handicap over ground where some of the lighter weights are out at the weights (and a kg over this sort of trip equates to more than a length), so I prefer Rapid Flow who is in form and has Marcus in the saddle, from Ariza (who has come down in ratings from 93 to 83, but may prefer the stand side track); I think Shrek's Gilmore Girl has chance as well
R9: If The Best Overall gets beat, I predict a P6 carryover, and she really seems the right one after the scratching of African Love, with New Girlfriend and Simply Blue to fill the placings
The last time I posted a PA, I did not cover myself in glory, so let's try to put the record straight:
1,13,14
4,10
3,11
4,5,6,8
1,7,11
3,4,6
3
Sun is out now, so the going should be on top; play well
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
