new MR after Summer Cup

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5 days 9 hours ago #776903 by Sylvester
Sylvester created the topic: new MR after Summer Cup
Zillzaal 114 to 120. dont get it i dont agree
Socrat unchanged 133
Almutwakel 103 to 117
queen supreme 110 to 117
atjaab stays 117
royhadenuff 116 down to 115
green haze 107 to 111
barahin unchanged dont get that
Camphopratus 118 to 116
sunshine silk unchanged 105 really
tilbury fort 118 to 116
divin odisee 117 to 116
flying winder unchanged 105
insignis 112 to 110
marchontogether unchanged 116
dawn assault unchanged 116
shenanigens 107 to 106
infamous fox 119 to 117
bize unchanged 106
cascopedia unchanged 117. distressed post race

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5 days 9 hours ago #776904 by Sylvester
Sylvester replied the topic: new MR after Summer Cup
MR panel quick to bullet a horse when they win very slow to bring MR Down.
Zillzaal beats a 133 rated horse under sufference post gelding. gets 6 points yet Socrat not reduced, assuming socrat ran below rating.
adjaab ran over a trip maybe below his optimum. not sure if he was used as line horse will wait for press blurb

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5 days 9 hours ago #776908 by oscar
oscar replied the topic: new MR after Summer Cup

Sylvester wrote: MR panel quick to bullet a horse when they win very slow to bring MR Down.
Zillzaal beats a 133 rated horse under sufference post gelding. gets 6 points yet Socrat not reduced, assuming socrat ran below rating.
adjaab ran over a trip maybe below his optimum. not sure if he was used as line horse will wait for press blurb


I find that nothing makes sense anymore in racing you are spot on, how in the world did they work that out?

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5 days 5 hours ago #776930 by Charl
Charl replied the topic: new MR after Summer Cup
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5 days 3 hours ago #776937 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: new MR after Summer Cup
As I said before, ratings are subjective at the best of times ..... mine (using Soqrat as the line horse) looks like this:

Zillzaal - 118
Soqrat - 133
Al Mutawakel - 117
Queen Supreme - 116
Atyaab - 115
Roy Had Enough - 113
Green Haze - 114
Barahin - 128
Camphoratus - 114
Sunshine Silk - 110
Tilbury Fort - 111

These ratings are based on the assumption that both Atyaab and Roy Had Enough ran close to their ratings - which means that Zillzaal, Queen Supreme and Green Haze improved by at least 4 points; the alternative would be to use those 3 as line horses (maybe more likely ?) which would translate into the following (as more or less suggested by Charl):

Zillzaal - 113
Soqrat - 128
Al Mutawakel - 112
Queen Supreme - 111
Atyaab - 110
Roy Had Enough - 108
Green Haze - 109
Barahin - 123
Camphoratus - 109
Sunshine Silk - 105
Tilbury Fort - 106

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5 days 39 minutes ago #776939 by Charl
Charl replied the topic: new MR after Summer Cup
Hi Frodo, I always look for the line horse within the 1st 5 horses with preference to the 1st 3 horses as I believe that the closer the horse gets to win the more likely it ran to form except when a horse wins very easy or ran on to late.
Then I also look at the average difference between merit rating and race rating of the 1st 5 horses using different line horses, and when the average is low (which means that the front horses ran to form) it makes that horse a likely line horse. I used Zillzaal as the line horse.
If they give Zillzaal a 120 rating, they must increase Soqrat to 137 (Which he did not run).
Because on the NHRA website they say that 2 pounds = 1 length over 2000m and that equates to 1.1 length per kg, which gave Zillzaal 8.8 lengths advantage over Soqrat. Zillzaal only won with 0.4 lengths which makes him 8.4 lengths (16.8 points) inferior to Soqrat. How the f**k do they rate him 120 as I am sure that Soqrat did nothing more than a 133.
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