Turffontein Saturday 5/10

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2 weeks 2 days ago #772389 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan created the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
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2 weeks 2 days ago - 2 weeks 1 day ago #772393 by DOCTOR R
DOCTOR R replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
MDK race 1 and 2
Last Edit: 2 weeks 1 day ago by DOCTOR R. Reason: Delete

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2 weeks 2 days ago - 2 weeks 2 days ago #772394 by lushen
lushen replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Callan in the first, Vistula and BBC
Last Edit: 2 weeks 2 days ago by lushen.

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2 weeks 2 days ago #772396 by bopp26
bopp26 replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
the talking points tomorrow will be around buffalo bill codi and Vitsula..does one banker them or try beat them..the positives are they are both very well weighted in these fields. the negatives well both have bad draws vitsula could be my banker as got the fitness the draw is a concern with a few tarry horses that could still be anything..

buffalo bill is by far best weighted but the worry is the rest. how accurate is the merit rating of bbc i dont see the draw as a real threat because coming off a break i think they will try slot him in an okay position and run at them but for me the merit rating is a big? imo

whats your thaughts bankers ir try and beat them

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2 weeks 2 days ago #772397 by Karma
Karma replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10

bopp26 wrote: the talking points tomorrow will be around buffalo bill codi and Vitsula..does one banker them or try beat them..the positives are they are both very well weighted in these fields. the negatives well both have bad draws vitsula could be my banker as got the fitness the draw is a concern with a few tarry horses that could still be anything..

buffalo bill is by far best weighted but the worry is the rest. how accurate is the merit rating of bbc i dont see the draw as a real threat because coming off a break i think they will try slot him in an okay position and run at them but for me the merit rating is a big? imo

whats your thaughts bankers ir try and beat them


Will probably cop a bit of flack for this... Said it before his last start and will say it again... IMO, BBC is a good horse but is over rated..... Just my opinion of course... PS, i think 7/1 for Chimichuri Run is tasty.... PLUS, 1450 is too short for BBC....

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772400 by zain
zain replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Race 1: Metric

Race 2: Bellagio King

Race 3: My Dream Chaser

Race 4: Twice As Special

Race 5: Brightnumberten

Race 6: Pool Party

Race 7: Clever Guy

Race 8: Just Kidding

Race 9: UFO

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772407 by bopp26
bopp26 replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10

Karma wrote:

bopp26 wrote: the talking points tomorrow will be around buffalo bill codi and Vitsula..does one banker them or try beat them..the positives are they are both very well weighted in these fields. the negatives well both have bad draws vitsula could be my banker as got the fitness the draw is a concern with a few tarry horses that could still be anything..

buffalo bill is by far best weighted but the worry is the rest. how accurate is the merit rating of bbc i dont see the draw as a real threat because coming off a break i think they will try slot him in an okay position and run at them but for me the merit rating is a big? imo

whats your thaughts bankers ir try and beat them


Will probably cop a bit of flack for this... Said it before his last start and will say it again... IMO, BBC is a good horse but is over rated..... Just my opinion of course... PS, i think 7/1 for Chimichuri Run is tasty.... PLUS, 1450 is too short for BBC....


i agrree i dont think that bbc is a 125 merit rated is a bit higher than what i think he is but i dont think he needs to be 125 to win here so well weighted in this field i fancy a bit of prince of kahal today if it gets the 1450

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772414 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772415 by Bob Brogan
Bob Brogan replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10

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2 weeks 1 day ago - 2 weeks 1 day ago #772420 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Obviously Wallaa has a lot going for her, but from a value perspective, I think Oscar's Untamed Tiger has a place chance
Last Edit: 2 weeks 1 day ago by Frodo.
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2 weeks 1 day ago #772421 by KitKat
KitKat replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Swingers with Pop Icon

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772424 by Zietsman Oosthuizen
Zietsman Oosthuizen replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Include these in your exotics . Take these also for bipot and pa.
R1 nr 14
R2 nr 14
R3 nrs 5, 2
R4 nr 8
R5 nrs 5, 2
R6 nr 8
R7 nrs 2 , 3 ,6
R8 nrs 6 , 5
R9 nrs 5 , 4


Great initiative by Sporting Post

www.sportingpost.co.za/2019/10/handicapping-merit-ratings/

www.sportingpost.co.za/2019/10/merit-ratings-the-coaching/

And my opinion:

Turffontein race 3
All well exposed and I will post each filly/mare merit rating achieved in each of their last 5 runs if you handicap each race without the restrictions of the handicappers. To win a handicap you either must be improving still , or you should have proven in the past you capable to beat your current rating in a true run race. Where the total donkeys normally arrives is when its a false run race and that rating can normally totally be ignored. I adjusted all ratings before the 10 point increase to what they currently are.

Nr 1 Flichity by farr
7/1 odds
64kg!!!!!!
Current rating 103
Last 5 runs :
102
100
102
102
99.

Couldnt run to / or beaten her rating. No chance , especially with 64kg on her back . Coming from a break and new stable.
Should be double her current price .

Nr 2 Pretty Border
7/1 odds
61,5kg
Current rating 100
Last 5 runs :
104
104
100 (when carrying 62,5kg)
—- No rating – false run race , although she won
104

Beaten 3 out of 4 times her rating each time by 2kg . Only concern is the 61,5kg she carries.
Huge price at 7/1 and more than double the price she should be. Only concern is its her first run back after a short rest. If she doesnt run a cracker then next time fill the kitty.

Nr 3 Bondiblue
5/1 odds
61,5kg
Current rating 98
Last 5 runs :
81
94
97
99
97

Ran almost exactly to her rating in last 3 runs . Will battle to win but definitely place chance.

Nr 4 My dream chaser
7/1 odds
59kg
Current rating 95
Last 5 runs :
86
94
87
97
75

Erratic form but capable to upset but looks like soundness issues. Can upset quartet but stable mate preferred. Should be in double figures.

Nr 5 Emily hobhouse
7/2 odds
55kg
Current rating 85
Last 5 runs:
77
80
83
95 !!!
85 (first race after rest and way too short)

Beaten current rating by 5kg in 2nd last start before being rested. Comeback run over too short distance still run to current rating. 7/2 worth a try still. Only concern is this run is only 2 weeks after comeback run and can caught horses out and result in a flat run . If she doesnt run a cracker now then next start will be cherry ripe.

Nr 6 rabia the rebel
14/1 odds
54,5kg
Current rating 84
Last 5 runs:
78
83
82
84
79 (saddle slipped)

Obvious pacesetter and wont be surprise to see her go close with a handy weight . Definite quartet chance , if she makes it a false run , she can slow them down and skip and upset. Nice place odds.

Nr 7 circle of lattitude
5/1 odds
53kg
Current rating 81
Last 5 runs :
77
—-False run
74
80
80

Handicapper is just on top of her but sure have a quartet chance . Too short the price but she will be able to keep Rabia the Rebel honest and make sure its a true run race.

Nr 8 jacko boy
22/10 odds
52,5kg
Current rating 82
Last 5 runs:
67 (too short the distance)
76
80
84
82

Proven to be just ahead of handicapper still but very short priced at 22/10. She cant beat pretty border or emily hobhouse if either run to proven ability.

My selections:

5 Emily hobhouse
2 Pretty border
8 jacko boy

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772426 by bayern
bayern replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10

KitKat wrote: Swingers with Pop Icon


Nice find at a decent price

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772427 by Biggie626
Biggie626 replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
LEFT HOOK (E/W)

MOVES IN DRAW 7 WITH SCRATCHINGS

Ignore last run over the 1800m,was drawn wide never incontention

Penultimate run over the 1800m
Finished in 4th place
1.85lengths off the winner
Handy-ran on

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772428 by Biggie626
Biggie626 replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
MOONLIGHTSTRANGER (PLACE)

Penultimate run finished 4.10lengths off the winner over the 1400m
(Made late headway)

BELLAGIO KING (PLACE)

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772430 by bayern
bayern replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
According to the money, Spero Optima won't miss.

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772433 by Frodo
Frodo replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10

KitKat wrote: Swingers with Pop Icon


Good one Kit .

Thoughts on what looks to be an interesting card:

R2: Not too easy - must be some value outside of the top 3 in the betting - Romantic Era place

R3: I think Circle of Latitude the right one - still at a reasonable rating imo and should go close; Jacko Boy in form and biggest danger although this track may find her out; most of the others rate some sort of chance

R4: Her I fancy my boy Col (thanks for that roughie on Thursday); that 4 kg allowance imo give Twice as Special a big chance here; Green Dragon has improved over ground and rates the biggest danger imo with The Bees Knees better over this sort of trip and could be the one to make trifectas pay

R5: Competitive sprint; Tokyo Drift, but for the draw, would be my first choice, but as things stand, Baron Rodney and Pigeon Rock are probably the safer plays

R6: Vistula is a classy filly, but the draw is a concern; hard to judge Sidonie, but I think she will give the favorite a lot to think about (I have her rated higher than the official 96) from pole position; stable mate Spiritofthegrove another who comes off an impressive last run, but the draw is a concern; best of the rest imo Schippers and GIn FIzz

R7: Imo Buffalo BIll Cody has his work cut out from that draw to beat the track and trip specialist Zouaves; Will Pays to run into the money from a widish draw with Prince of Kahal; the 3yr olds have a tough task here imo

R8: I make Way of the World better than rated and for me is the one to beat; could be on the sharp side for Jetoria, while I don't think Sally Called can give Way of the World 3 kgs

R9: Interesting handicap to close, and imo the value here again lies with the ride of the very useful apprentice Col DIcken (check out his stats on this Inside track); 2nd best for me is Diva Faustina, while others like Golden Spiral, Annatjie and Black Ferrari can't be ignored

Enjoy B)
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2 weeks 1 day ago #772434 by Biggie626
Biggie626 replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
CIRCLE OF LATITUDE (WIN)

5/1

Apart from winning her last race well over C/D

7runs back over the Tur2000,She finished in 3rd place 0.95lengths off SUNSHINE SILK from draw 14 carrying 56.5kgs

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772436 by bayern
bayern replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Has the Hollywood site crashed?

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2 weeks 1 day ago #772438 by Gazza
Gazza replied the topic: Turffontein Saturday 5/10
Seems like it . r2 still not cleared

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