Greyville Saturday - Durban July Day

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792046 by Bob Brogan
Greyville Saturday - Durban July Day was created by Bob Brogan
Thought it was about time to start a fresh thread....

July Day Computaform news.tabonline.co.za/FieldsPDF/Computafo...VILLE@2020.07.25.pdf

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK
The following user(s) said Thank You: Muhtiman

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792047 by Bob Brogan

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK
The following user(s) said Thank You: Gallop

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792051 by louie
Donavan Dillion on Golden Ducat

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792057 by Bob Brogan
Think he`s too heavy?

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792062 by Bob Brogan

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792067 by bayern
Copied from the other thread :-

Before they both shorten, play the double :-

R1) Chimichuri Run X (R5) Caralluma

Neither will start at their current odds.

Fresh thought and trying to be brave, the yankee :-

R1) Chimichuri Run X (R2) Vernichey X (R5) Caralluma X (R6) Ecstatic Green

Chimichuri Run is weighted to go very, very close. Coming off a good effort in a Grade 1 - some respectable performances against Kasimir at level weights.

Vernichey, this horse is still very green and is winning. Be afraid the day the penny drops. Clearly after the bigger prize money, rather than running in either Graded race (5 or 6), in theory, looking to run 3rd at worst, but she should be good enough to pull this off.

Caralluma, better the devil you know is what i say. If a bomb result,, then so be it.

Ecstatic Green, never saw the nominations for the Fillies race, R5, maybe the draw was the reason they taking on the boys, conversely, if she wasn't good enough to have a winning chance, the wouldn't have entered her in R6.

My dippy logic, play well.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, kt6747, The Grey

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792069 by Prish007
Interesting to see there are 3 horses on Saturday that are looking for 3 wins in a row although the other 2 in different races.
Do It Again
Celtic Sea
Infamous FOX

Worth trying a treble @ 240/1

Last year was a treble for race 7/8/9
The following user(s) said Thank You: Magi

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 3 days ago - 3 weeks 1 day ago #792073 by hopelesspunter
hopelesspunter on topic Greyville Saturday - Durban July Day
Ashford Castle
Last edit: 3 weeks 1 day ago by hopelesspunter. Reason: Scratching

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792077 by Bob Brogan
CHIEF HANDICAPPER MAHARAJ UNRAVELS THE JULY PUZZLE

David Thiselton

South Africa's chief handicapper Lennon Maharaj has looked at the Vodacom Durban July through the public eye and offered some pointers.

He firstly addressed the three-year-old issue and said, "There is little question that Covid-19 and the National Lockdown have impacted on the development of the three-year-olds' Merit Ratings. Last season Soqrat ran second in the Grade 1 L'Ormarins Queens Plate at WFA terms behind Do It Again providing the Handicappers with a good yardstick. Hawwaam also quickly established himself as a dominant force. This season it was not until the Daily News 2000 victory of Got The Greenlight that the best middle distance horse of the crop was known. I have more questions than answers about the three-year-olds this season and the July will provide the answers. However, unlike handicappers who are post-race analysts, tipsters and punters have to analyse the race beforehand and try and predict a winner. One question they should be asking is how do the three-year-olds compare with recent three-year-old winners and how comparatively tough is their task?
2012 winner Pomodoro (55kg) beat Grade 2 winner Smanjemanje (57kg) and Grade 2 winner Chesalon (58kg).
2014 winner Legislate (56 kg) (after a successful objection) beat Grade 1 winner Wylie Hall (57,5kg) and Grade 2 Winner Tellina (58kg).
2018 winner Do It Again (54kg) beat Grade 3 winner Made To Conquer (53kg) and Grade 2 winner Elusive Silva (56,5kg).
How do the older horses they beat stack up against Grade 1 WFA winners like Do It Again, Rainbow Bridge, Vardy and Soqrat? The fact that we have been able to keep horses like those four on our shores has surely strengthened the quality of our national horse population over the last few seasons and consequently sets the three-year-olds a tough task, even if they do prove to be undervalued by the interrupted season.

Maharaj then gave some pointers to punters, in layman's terms, on how to unravel the handicap. He began by saying a
successful handicap was one where there was the perception that every horse had an equal chance of winning, so the task punters should be setting themselves would be to find horses that have been undervalued by the handicapper and/or over-priced by the betting market.

He continued, "Imagine a line graph based on the MR profile for each runner in the July. You will find that all horses good enough to participate would have been and may still be on an upward MR curve but the more exposed among them might now have reached their peaks and have flattened curves. In theory if all the July runners are weighted to finish in a line, with the exception of the horses under sufferance who are still behind the line, then surely the smart money should be on the horses that are weighted to finish in the line but with room for improvement i.e those who are still on an upwards trajectory or who are perhaps under handicapped.
Belgarion should be outright favourite for the July. His official rating of 119 is only due to a specific condition of the WSB 1900, in which he achieved a 122 rating, so he is under handicapped. We could have weighted Belgarion off his achieved 122 rating as this is permitted by the conditions of the race, but we opted not to break precedent. Belgarion is clearly on an upward trajectory. He has a winning attitude and is in theory ahead of the Handicapper. The fact is that we don’t know how good he is or whether he will cope with the rise in class in the July. However, he has a theoretical edge, especially if you believe that the other runners have reached their peaks.

Maharaj then spoke about Rainbow Bridge, Do It Again and Vardy. "Statistics clearly show that the top weight band outperforms all other weight bands in ordinary handicaps where the weight spread is from 60kg to 52kg. The July weights favour the top weights more than that due to the 7 kg spread to the bottom weighted male (53kg) and 8 kg spread to the bottom weighted female.
Rainbow Bridge is in the form of his life and was ridden more positively when producing an eye catching second in the Sun Met, beating the rest of a high quality field including Hawwaam by more than 3,5 lengths and more. There is absolutely no questions about his class and having implemented these positive tactics he may still be on the up. He will have to produce a 135 performance to win.
Last year’s champion Do It Again has been beaten four times in a row by Rainbow Bridge this season but did produce a better effort in the Gold Challenge. Is he back to his best? A 134 or better performance is not impossible for this champion.
Vardy is a class horse with incredible acceleration. Will he be as effective over the 2200m and how will he cope if the race is run at a fast pace? Can he produce a 135 performance over this trip?
Soqrat is a muscular, classy horse whose latest run was encouraging. At his best he is quite capable of a 134 performance.
Twist of Fate's rating has risen to 129. He has run close to Hawwaam on several occasions and would have received 3,5kg from Hawwaam had the latter participated. Was he undone by the slow pace in the Gold Challenge?
Bunker Hunt may have some stamina doubts but possesses great acceleration and has run with the best in the land. What is your assessment of his Drill Hall win?
Tierra del Fuego also has form with Hawwaam and may still be on the up.
The race doesn’t end there and we haven’t even touched on other factors such as pace."

Maharaj concluded, "Hopefully there are some clues in this article to help you unravel one of the most debated July's in recent years."

"And us Handicappers? We will have all the answers after the race!"

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK
The following user(s) said Thank You: Saint Tropez

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792080 by Sylvester
i feel dizzy after readung this.

Bob Brogan wrote: CHIEF HANDICAPPER MAHARAJ UNRAVELS THE JULY PUZZLE

David Thiselton

South Africa's chief handicapper Lennon Maharaj has looked at the Vodacom Durban July through the public eye and offered some pointers.

He firstly addressed the three-year-old issue and said, "There is little question that Covid-19 and the National Lockdown have impacted on the development of the three-year-olds' Merit Ratings. Last season Soqrat ran second in the Grade 1 L'Ormarins Queens Plate at WFA terms behind Do It Again providing the Handicappers with a good yardstick. Hawwaam also quickly established himself as a dominant force. This season it was not until the Daily News 2000 victory of Got The Greenlight that the best middle distance horse of the crop was known. I have more questions than answers about the three-year-olds this season and the July will provide the answers. However, unlike handicappers who are post-race analysts, tipsters and punters have to analyse the race beforehand and try and predict a winner. One question they should be asking is how do the three-year-olds compare with recent three-year-old winners and how comparatively tough is their task?
2012 winner Pomodoro (55kg) beat Grade 2 winner Smanjemanje (57kg) and Grade 2 winner Chesalon (58kg).
2014 winner Legislate (56 kg) (after a successful objection) beat Grade 1 winner Wylie Hall (57,5kg) and Grade 2 Winner Tellina (58kg).
2018 winner Do It Again (54kg) beat Grade 3 winner Made To Conquer (53kg) and Grade 2 winner Elusive Silva (56,5kg).
How do the older horses they beat stack up against Grade 1 WFA winners like Do It Again, Rainbow Bridge, Vardy and Soqrat? The fact that we have been able to keep horses like those four on our shores has surely strengthened the quality of our national horse population over the last few seasons and consequently sets the three-year-olds a tough task, even if they do prove to be undervalued by the interrupted season.

Maharaj then gave some pointers to punters, in layman's terms, on how to unravel the handicap. He began by saying a
successful handicap was one where there was the perception that every horse had an equal chance of winning, so the task punters should be setting themselves would be to find horses that have been undervalued by the handicapper and/or over-priced by the betting market.

He continued, "Imagine a line graph based on the MR profile for each runner in the July. You will find that all horses good enough to participate would have been and may still be on an upward MR curve but the more exposed among them might now have reached their peaks and have flattened curves. In theory if all the July runners are weighted to finish in a line, with the exception of the horses under sufferance who are still behind the line, then surely the smart money should be on the horses that are weighted to finish in the line but with room for improvement i.e those who are still on an upwards trajectory or who are perhaps under handicapped.
Belgarion should be outright favourite for the July. His official rating of 119 is only due to a specific condition of the WSB 1900, in which he achieved a 122 rating, so he is under handicapped. We could have weighted Belgarion off his achieved 122 rating as this is permitted by the conditions of the race, but we opted not to break precedent. Belgarion is clearly on an upward trajectory. He has a winning attitude and is in theory ahead of the Handicapper. The fact is that we don’t know how good he is or whether he will cope with the rise in class in the July. However, he has a theoretical edge, especially if you believe that the other runners have reached their peaks.

Maharaj then spoke about Rainbow Bridge, Do It Again and Vardy. "Statistics clearly show that the top weight band outperforms all other weight bands in ordinary handicaps where the weight spread is from 60kg to 52kg. The July weights favour the top weights more than that due to the 7 kg spread to the bottom weighted male (53kg) and 8 kg spread to the bottom weighted female.
Rainbow Bridge is in the form of his life and was ridden more positively when producing an eye catching second in the Sun Met, beating the rest of a high quality field including Hawwaam by more than 3,5 lengths and more. There is absolutely no questions about his class and having implemented these positive tactics he may still be on the up. He will have to produce a 135 performance to win.
Last year’s champion Do It Again has been beaten four times in a row by Rainbow Bridge this season but did produce a better effort in the Gold Challenge. Is he back to his best? A 134 or better performance is not impossible for this champion.
Vardy is a class horse with incredible acceleration. Will he be as effective over the 2200m and how will he cope if the race is run at a fast pace? Can he produce a 135 performance over this trip?
Soqrat is a muscular, classy horse whose latest run was encouraging. At his best he is quite capable of a 134 performance.
Twist of Fate's rating has risen to 129. He has run close to Hawwaam on several occasions and would have received 3,5kg from Hawwaam had the latter participated. Was he undone by the slow pace in the Gold Challenge?
Bunker Hunt may have some stamina doubts but possesses great acceleration and has run with the best in the land. What is your assessment of his Drill Hall win?
Tierra del Fuego also has form with Hawwaam and may still be on the up.
The race doesn’t end there and we haven’t even touched on other factors such as pace."

Maharaj concluded, "Hopefully there are some clues in this article to help you unravel one of the most debated July's in recent years."

"And us Handicappers? We will have all the answers after the race!"

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792082 by Hugh49
I see Dillon got the ride.
He's going to have to lose weight in a hurry

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 3 days ago #792091 by Bob Brogan

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 2 days ago #792148 by Bob Brogan
Head over to TT and you can catch Ali Cohen chatting the Durban July with Handicapper Lennon Maharaj www.tellytrack.com/MagazineShows/Category/Today#

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 2 days ago #792160 by Mac
Would you promise not to tell if I tell you a little secret?
Schhhh, Padre Pio :whistle: , don't tell

"Lot 226, 2016 NYS, Diamondveld, R1.5m"

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 2 days ago #792168 by Prish007

Mac wrote: Would you promise not to tell if I tell you a little secret?
Schhhh, Padre Pio :whistle: , don't tell

I also fancy this one Mac expecting a big run
The following user(s) said Thank You: Mac

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 2 days ago #792181 by Bob Brogan





......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Bob Brogan
  • Bob Brogan's Avatar Topic Author
  • Away
  • Administrator
  • Administrator
More
3 weeks 2 days ago #792188 by Bob Brogan
PHUMELELA MEDIA RELEASE
SUBJECT: ComputaForm Express back on shelves
DATE: Wednesday 22 July 2020
RELEASED BY: Phumelela Gaming

All members of the racing fraternity who prefer a hard copy of ComputaForm Express must note that their favourite race card will be on the shelves again from Wednesday 22 July.
The first post-lockdown edition of ComputaForm Express will have all the fields for the race meetings from Friday 24 July to Sunday 26 July.
That means the fields for Vodacom Durban July Day will be included in the publication.
The list of stores where the ComputaForm Express will be on sale, can be found at news.tabonline.co.za/Computaform/ComputaForm-Express
Punters should also note that ComputaForm Express will still be available free of charge online at tabonline.co.za.
Unfortunately ComputaForm will not be available in hard copy, but will also remain available for free online.

......................................................................................................................................

www.africanbettingclan.com

@SAFBETTINGCLAN

FACEBOOK

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 2 days ago #792189 by Sammy Silver
Sammy Silver on topic Greyville Saturday - Durban July Day
GABOR scratched in Race 8
The following user(s) said Thank You: Mac

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 2 days ago - 3 weeks 2 days ago #792191 by Mac
Also Perfect Tigress Race 3
(Substituting Gabor in Garden Province).

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

"Lot 226, 2016 NYS, Diamondveld, R1.5m"
Last edit: 3 weeks 2 days ago by Mac.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
3 weeks 1 day ago #792199 by Mac
Scratched: Race 9 Golden Belle


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

"Lot 226, 2016 NYS, Diamondveld, R1.5m"

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.674 seconds

About A.B.C

African Betting Clan is established for the upliftment of the sports punter, who enjoys a bet on horse racing, football and other sports, enabling them to voice their views and opinions on all aspects of the sport of their choice, free of charge.

Learn More

Contact Details

Main Office (HQ)
Box 40390 moreleta park, Pretoria 0044
+27 827854357

Events

August 2020
S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31